Good morning!
They’re leaving for the next two nights College Football Playoff Semifinals across the stage. The kickoff times of 1h30 couldn’t be more Europe-unfriendly, but because there are four relatively unknown teams, I’ll still take the time for a crisp preview.
We’re rid of Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson – the stage is set for us Ole Miss, Miami, Indiana and Oregon! The 2025-26 National Champion will be an unfamiliar one, and he will be one who stands like a hawk in the new college football.
Transfers, money, relatively low gameplay variability – Unlike 15 years ago, college football is now very orderly on the field, but even more chaotic off it.
#6 Ole Miss Rebels – #10 Miami Hurricanes
Fiesta Bowl – Friday night, 1h30
It’s a duel between offense and defense: Ole Miss hat die #2 Offense in college football according to SP+, Miami die #6 Defense. If we go by the impressions of the two playoff games, the Canes defense may even be underestimated with this ranking.
If you haven’t seen it yet, Miami has an elite pass rush EDGEs Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor. The house numbers: 62% passrush win rate, 40% pressure rate. It is one Pass rush wrecking ball with the potential to sink entire defensive game plans.
The big question will be whether Ole Miss, unlike Texas A&M and Ohio State, can find answers against this defense firing on all cylinders.
What will help in the search for it: OffCoord Charlie Weis jr. is still released for the job and thus ensures the continuity that comes with the departure of the head coach Lane Kiffin At the beginning of December I feared that I had already lost.
What also speaks for it: QB Trinidad Chambliss may not play typical of the NFL, but he is one running threat and has real ones Playmaker-Qualities to counter an opposing pass rush. He’s better than Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed and more mobile than Ohio State’s Julian Sayin.
Chambliss is not a perfect QB, but he is one Chaos-Agentwho has already proven that he can create throws with his arm even in tight pockets. But you can’t attack him blindly because he then punishes aggressive pass rushers with his mobility. So Miami will have one balanced pass rush need – controlled aggressiveness.
Ole Miss has very good receivers De’Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace and can also provide a dry “beat” in the running game Kewan Lacy pretend.
Miamis Offense is a more sober matter: the O-line is as befits a head coach Mario Cristobal heard, extremely powerful – RT Francis Mauigoa you can already mark yourself as a 1st rounder. This line is instrumental for that RB Mark Fletcher can provide his 5.4 yards/carry as a base.
In the passing game you trust that QB Carson Beck almost never “behind the sticks” comes. Beck is not a high-class QB whose limitations become obvious as soon as he comes under pressure or has to catch up. But he’s good as solid ball distributoras long as the O-line has his back and he can throw his repertoire of low-risk passes.
On paper, Ole Miss has the defensive tackles to handle the running game: Will Echoles and Zxavian Harrison eat double teams and close down the middle. But they are not top pass rushers, and because Ole Misses head coach Pete Golding Also don’t like flashing, it could end up being something little pressure on Beck’s pocket to actually keep the Hurricanes offense under 20 points.
Miami is a slight favorite with the bookmakers – but the Canes first have to repeat the phenomenal defensive performance of the first two playoff games against a QB that is more difficult to defend. They can’t afford to become more dependent on Beck’s throwing arm.
Of course, there is an extreme burden on the other side high pressure on Chambliss. The young QB, who hasn’t even started the season yet as a starter, has to put in an extremely good performance here in order to survive against these pass rushers and subsequently crack this defensive barrier.
There will be one without a doubt fascinating game. My sympathies are quite easy Ole Missbecause I find the story of a playoff run after the coaching change appealing.
#1 Indiana Hoosiers – #5 Oregon Ducks
Peach Bowl – Saturday night, 1h30
Meet here similar teams each other – which is not surprising, after all, both coaches are significantly inspired by the best in their field: Curt Cignetti completed his apprenticeship under Nick Sabanas well as Oregon’s Dan Lanning once took a pay cut as a 28-year-old scion to spend a year as Saban’s intern at Alabama, and later found his way among Saban’s favorite students Kirby Smart to continue.
Both teams are extremely organizedcommit few errorsspielen crisp defense and solid, if rather unspectacular offense.
Oregon provides the #7 offense after SP+, and the #3 defense. Indiana is a bit better in both areas: #3 offense and #2 defense. We see: The level is very, very high.
But the question is mainly with Oregons Offense: Is it high enough?
The Ducks still have all season left not a single really convincing game against a top defense. In the regular season, they only got 20 points against Indiana with luck (thanks in part to a pick six), and last week the offense needed extremely short fielding twice to produce the two touchdowns against Texas Tech.
Oregon’s O-line is very goodbut in the regular season the Ducks were unable to run against Indiana – which was not only due to the Hoosiers’ extremely solid tackling.
The Ducks could have a lot in their hands very quickly QB Dalee Moore lies. Moore is always considered a potential high draft pick, especially because he throws an excellent deep ball. But Indianas Defense gives up virtually nothing deep (only 13 catches for 20 yards) and has no problem getting one “up front”. Turning the game into a game of patience.
And then it comes up individual quality and Cleverness of the playcallers to. Oregon has the former without a doubt: TE Kenyon Sadiq is a freak and a near perfect matchup weapon, and both Malik Bensonas well as Dakorien Moore are rock-solid route runners and catch machines. But I doubt whether Oregon’s coaches are enough brilliant ideas to effectively exploit all possible matchup advantages.
It will be extremely high class, when Indiana has the ball. The Hoosiers have had the ball all season moves excellently on the ground – with one Exception: Against Oregon.
Although Indiana ran again and again in the first game, the rushing offense failed to create explosive plays. Always dying Roman Hemby, Kaelon Black and Khobie Martin in the wall against the DTs Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington.
In the end, the passing offense pulled it out – even though QB Fernando Mendoza didn’t have his best game.
Mendoza is a robot QB. Just by listening to him speak, you can tell the enthusiasm and curiosity this man brings to his job, and I have no doubt that even at a young age he has mastered most of the pages of his playbook in his sleep.
But Oregon managed in the regular season, to put pressure on himseine speed up your internal clock – not always with four men, but also with the help of 40% Blitz-Rate. Mendoza didn’t always seem to be on top of his game and didn’t always seem to have the right plan to counterattack against this unusually aggressive defense.
But it was still enough, because on a day when the running game was lacking and the QB had problems with the blitz, another position group performed at a phenomenal level: The Pass-Catcher.
Elijah Sarrat, Omar Cooper jr., Hemby. Actually Mendoza can always build on these weapons – like Indiana usually builds on Mendoza can build. The fact that the Hoosiers managed 30 points against Oregon on a rather mixed day should confirm their position as favorites for the rematch.
Indiana is with the bookmakers easy favorite (3.5 points). As sensational as a Hoosiers entry into the National Championship Game would still feel, such duels at roughly equal level are often decided by turnovers and big plays that are difficult to predict: Indiana feels like the slightly better team.
It’s the team on mission. It’s the one team that Self-image of former Alabama teams radiates, and I may have made a fool of him, but I’m ready for it Cygnets running through a wall. Lanning? I still lack conviction – because I often have the impression that Lanning himself Given the size of his task, he often lacks conviction.
But I could be wrong. Oregon has a very good team that can easily win the national championship. I just can’t in good conscience go against it Indian seals tap.
