BarcelonaWinter already showed its claws during the last fortnight of November and the first days of December, when there were irruptions of very cold air that caused the thermometers to plummet. But the new season officially arrives this Sunday, December 21. Specifically, astronomical winter will start at 4:03 p.m. (Catalan time) and will last until March 20, when spring will take over.
The exact time the new season will begin will occur on the winter solstice, when the Sun will reach its lowest position in the sky at noon. In this way, on Sunday we will experience the shortest day and the longest night of the year.
But what do the long-term maps of seasonal models say about what kind of weather we’re in for this winter? Will it be cold and snowy at lower elevations? Will we continue with the dynamics of recent years and will it be warm? According to Meteocat and Aemet sources consulted by the ARA, all the forecasts are in the same line, bearing in mind that they are forecasts that only show a trend and that have a very high degree of uncertainty.
Will it be a warm or cold winter?
Forecasts indicate that the combined temperature throughout the winter will be warm and above average. A trend that they have been experiencing for years all seasons of the year. It’s worth noting that, although astronomical winter begins on December 21, seasonal forecasts are based on meteorological winter, which includes the entire months of December, January and February.
Some models indicate that the average temperature this winter could be between 1°C and 1.5°C above normal. In fact, the first half of December has not been very cold, with values above average. However, the first days of the astronomical winter will be marked by a clear drop in temperatures that will bring us a fully wintry Christmas week, with below average values.
Will it rain heavily or snow at low elevations?
As for precipitation, most maps indicate that we will have the usual for the season. Even the forecasts provided by Meteocat point to the fact that the coastal and pre-coastal area could receive more rain than normal, especially in December and January. On the other hand, the exception would be the western Pyrenees, where less water and snow could fall than normal.
The first days of December were dry, but this last week the rains have reappeared. A busy weather that will continue in the first days of the astronomical winter. It is worth noting that this is a traditionally dry season with little precipitation in most counties.
As for the snow, the forecasts indicate that throughout the winter snowfalls would arrive in the Pyrenees, especially in the eastern part. What is impossible to know is whether it will snow at very low altitudes, which has not happened for quite some time now. Although the average winter temperature is expected to be high, if an episode of rain coincides with a timely influx of cold air, the elevation can easily plummet. In fact, from Sunday night and during next week it can snow below 1,000 m. It will be necessary to take stock of everything at the end of the season.
It ends a warm and wet 2025 in Catalonia
2025 will go down in history as the year in which the long and historic drought ended, thanks mainly to an exceptionally wet March. But temperatures have maintained their upward trend and above average. As Aemet sources have explained to the ARA, the period from January to November has been “exceptionally warm”, highlighting especially the month of June, which recorded an average temperature of almost 4 °C above usual.
According to Mateixa Aemet, of the last 23 months, 19 have recorded average temperatures above normal. And since 2005, all but three autumns have been warmer than normal. Data that show the rapid global warming that the Mediterranean area is particularly suffering from.
