McLaren was the sky-high favorite for the weekend in Abu Dhabi. Lando Norris confirmed his role as favorite on Friday in Abu Dhabi, but Max Verstappen can be seen as a positive surprise. After an extensive analysis of the data, Verstappen appears to be almost as fast as Norris. Verstappen must hope for help from other teams to become world champion.
After a good catch-up, Verstappen is still twelve points behind Norris. Oscar Piastri also has a chance to win the world title. There are many different scenarios possible, but it is certain that Norris will become world champion if he finishes on the podium. It is also certain that Verstappen will not become world champion if he does not finish in the top three. To maximize his title chances, the Limburger will have to win the race.
Result gives a distorted picture
Norris finished the crucial free practice for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix fastest, with a lead of more than three-tenths over Verstappen and George Russell. At that moment it was already clear that the day’s results gave a distorted picture: Verstappen drove his qualifying simulation first and McLaren only took action quite late, when the circuit had clearly become faster. In addition, the 28-year-old only completed one lap in his qualifying simulation. The McLarens tried again after a visit to the pit lane.
Verstappen also did not have a good start to his lap. Due to traffic, he almost had to stop in the last corner of his warm-up lap, which caused him to lose time in the first meters. The Red Bull Racing driver gave up 0.155 seconds to Norris in the first sector, while in other rounds he was among the absolute top in that sector. Norris sat according
Formula1.com just 0.045 seconds behind his ideal lap. On a second attempt, Norris also did not get further than 1:23.4. That is the same time that Verstappen also drove.
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Norris can become world champion this weekend.
The team of F1TV started working with all available data and concluded that McLaren is expected to have the fastest car for qualifying. However, the lead over Red Bull Racing is only 0.04 seconds per lap. It is important that these data are based on the fastest driver per team. In the expected result, Verstappen is in second place ahead of Oscar Piastri.
To become world champion, Verstappen needs a mistake from McLaren and Norris, or help from other teams. It helps that nine teams are within 0.56 seconds. Errors in qualification can therefore have major consequences. The chance that Mercedes and Ferrari drivers will be able to outpace Norris based on speed is small.
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Verstappen is close to McLaren.
Verstappen remains a threat
“As so often, McLaren is the fastest team in the qualifying simulations,” writes Lawrence Barretto. ‘According to our data, the difference is small, very small. Only 0.04 seconds to be precise. In the race that difference is the same. Our data suggests that McLaren’s advantage comes in the medium and fast corners. So McLaren is the favourite, but Red Bull is hot on the heels of the British team.’
Barretto realizes that Verstappen is extremely dangerous. “Anyone who is able to reduce a deficit of 104 points to twelve points in eight weekends should never be underestimated, especially if you are as talented as Max Verstappen,” said Barretto. ‘Even the Dutchman knows that he should not win the world title on his own strength. He can’t become champion if Norris finishes third.’
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Verstappen has a good chance of victory.
‘The data does indicate that Red Bull, in the hands of Verstappen, is at the very front. Yuki Tsunoda admitted that he didn’t understand why he lacked speed. Mercedes seems to be the biggest challenger with a gap of more than two tenths in the race.’ Verstappen also has a secret weapon. He clearly opts for more top speed, making it easier to overtake and defend.
