BarcelonaThe map of the autonomous regions was practically painted blue in the regional elections of 2023. Extremadura was a narrow exception – the PSOE still maintained the first position – but Guillermo Fernández Vara was ousted by the pact between the PP and Vox. Although María Guardiola had promised that she would not ally with the extreme right, Génova did not want to waste the opportunity to conquer the power of this community for only the second time since the beginning of democracy. This Sunday, Extremadura, a traditional socialist fief, has consolidated its turn to the right. A phenomenon that already occurred in Andalusia with the arrival of Juanma Moreno in power – he, unlike Guardiola, does have an absolute majority.
The elections in Extremadura can be the preview of half a year horrible for Sánchez if the trend is the same in the other appointments: on February 8 the until now spokeswoman for the Spanish government, Pilar Alegria, will measure strength with Jorge Azcón, current Aragonese president; then it will be Castile and León and finally Andalusia, where the Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, will play the type. All in all, while in the Congress of Deputies the weakness of the Spanish government will be demonstrated day after day, without the ability to approve budgets, and information will emerge about the causes of alleged corruption affecting the PSOE.
In this context, Catalonia becomes the main stronghold of the Socialists with President Salvador Illa at the helm. Unlike the other autonomies that according to demoscopy already turn their backs on the sanchismin the Principality resists. Not only did the PSC win the last parliamentary elections, but in the 2023 Spanish elections, the Catalan contribution was key to Sánchez being able to stay in Moncloa. And he is still highly rated by the electorate: in the latest CEO barometer, 32% of respondents would prefer Sánchez as president of Spain compared to 3% who opted for Alberto Núñez Feijóo. A slightly higher percentage than the previous survey, 28%. In fact, after the leader of the PSOE, Catalans prefer Santiago Abascal (7%) and then Yolanda Díaz (5%) as president.
The lesson for Feijóo
Despite the fact that the results are very hard for the PSOE, they are also hard for the PP. The only reason Guardiola had for bringing forward elections, after not having been able to approve the budgets, was to achieve an absolute majority and get rid of the extreme right. And that hasn’t happened, nothing could be further from the truth. After these elections, Santiago Abascal, who has taken it upon himself to tour the territory of Extremadura, is stronger than ever and draws a scenario prior to eventual Spanish elections that is lousy for the PP. The result certifies Feijóo’s inability to stand out against the far-right leader. And this is the only element to which Sánchez can be held this election night and it is not minor either.
In this critical situation, the leader of the PSOE has only two levers at his disposal: on the one hand, try to install the framework that the next Spanish elections will choose between him or Abascal to mobilize the left-wing vote (the problem for the socialists in Extremadura has been abstention); and on the other, to cement even more the multi-national alliance that brought him to Moncloa by culminating the pending commitments with Junts and Esquerra (the return of Carles Puigdemont, that Oriol Junqueras can present himself and the financing model), which would give him precious parliamentary stability. This is the only possible chapter in the endurance manual.
