The race for draft picks is a perennial storyline in the NBA, with teams frequently enough strategically positioning themselves for a higher selection in the summer draft. Historically, a lower end-of-season standing has directly translated to a better chance at securing a coveted top draft pick. This has led to the controversial practice of “tanking,” where teams may prioritize losing games to improve their draft lottery odds.
In an effort to curb excessive tanking, the NBA implemented changes in 2019. Under the new system, the three teams with the worst regular-season records each share an equal, albeit reduced, 14% chance of landing the first overall pick. This was a departure from the previous structure, where the team with the absolute worst record held a more significant 25% chance.
Despite these adjustments, the allure of a high draft pick continues to influence team strategies, with several clubs appearing to prioritize future assets over immediate wins each season.
NBA management has recently been exploring several proposals aimed at further addressing the dynamics of tanking and draft pick trades:
- Introducing draft pick protections in trades, limiting them to the top 4 or top 14 selections.
- Prohibiting a club from holding a top 4 draft pick in consecutive years.
- Freezing lottery odds for teams outside the top eight in each conference after March 1st.
The first proposal targets the common practice of teams trading future draft picks with “protection.” This protection clause means the pick remains with the original team if it falls within a specified range (e.g., top 4 or top 14). For instance, if a team’s draft pick is owed to another team only if it falls outside the top 8, that team might have an incentive to finish the season with a record that lands them within that top 8, thus keeping their pick.This scenario highlights how trade protections can inadvertently encourage teams to aim for specific outcomes in the standings.
The third idea aims to prevent teams from manipulating their late-season performance. Under this proposed rule,a team’s lottery odds would be fixed based on their standing as of March 1st. This means that even if a team outside the playoff picture on that date improves significantly and potentially makes a play-in tournament run,their lottery odds would remain tied to their earlier,worse position. This would disincentivize teams from suddenly improving their record late in the season solely to avoid a poor draft slot.
One of the most scrutinized instances of potential tanking occurred in 2023 with the Dallas Mavericks.With just two games remaining in the regular season, the Mavericks still had an outside chance to compete for a play-in tournament spot.however, their 2023 draft pick was protected, meaning it would go to the New York Knicks if it fell outside the top 10. This protection created a clear incentive for the Mavericks to ensure their pick landed within that top 10.
In the penultimate game of the season, the Mavericks notably rested key players Kyrie Irving and Luka doncic. In the final game, Irving remained on the bench, and Doncic played only 13 minutes. The Mavericks lost both contests, failing to qualify for the play-in tournament and securing a draft pick within the top 10. The league investigated the situation and ultimately fined the Mavericks’ management $750,000, though the team was permitted to keep its draft selection.
