Time passes faster than it seems. In the blink of an eye, the NBA He has already left practically a third of the regular season behind; 25 of the 82 games have been played. This first phase of the competition is usually difficult for fans, especially in the coming months (December, January and February). Beyond the phase end of the NBA Cup and of the christmas day gamesare months in which the spark beginning of the season has already been melting down, and the teams are still not playing for positions in the classification for the playoffs, something that does begin to happen after the break of the all star. However, there is always something to hold on to, something to make this stage entertaining. A prediction in the form of a question, the funniest of all: Who will be the MVP of the regular season?
In recent years, a very important trend has been created regarding this award: narrative. It is something that is emerging little by little from the opinions of analysts, fans and the teams’ own executives. The narrative is built according to the results of direct confrontations between candidates, their position in recent years regarding the award, and a growing factor in recent years: the ‘voter fatigue’one of the reasons why Nikola Jokic has not won the last five awards for best player of the season. This means (in theory) that if a player has won the MVP several times in a row or, for example, three of the last four, voters favor ‘newness’ more, with the aim of updating the product and maintaining its heterogeneity. These currents are updated throughout the season and are most unpredictable; For now, all that remains is to focus on the facts and evaluate based on what is known. The rest will do the rest; It always does and this year will not be a different case.
In this campaign, equality is maximum and increasing; everything at once. You simply have to look at the updated weekly list offered by the league itself in relation to this individual title. Luka Doncicwhich is averaging 35 points, 9 rebounds y 9 assists; That is to say, practically a triple double of 35 points (one of the best individual campaigns in history), incredibly it is not first. But it’s not second either. And the most surprising thing is that it is not shameless (although it is debatable) to say that third position is its rightful place. An example of the level and the enormous difficulty that winning the award this season will entail, which, except for surprises in the form of injuries that prevent the minimum required of 65 games to be eligible for this recognition, has become a three-way distance race. Mountain, thunder and beach; a varied and most extravagant cocktail.
The leader and lord of this award in recent years is, of course, Nikola Jokic. The Serbian has invented a formulaone that makes him the best player in the world. 28.7 points 12.6 rebounds and 11.1 assists They are, although it may sound impossible, numbers that do not sufficiently reflect the center’s impact on the court. Two different teams exist with and without him under the orders of David Adelman. While the Nuggets continue in the upper part of the west (currently third parties with a record 17-6) it will be very difficult to go down to joker from its pedestal. Average a triple double (the only NBA player to do so); and in November he did it with 32 points on average; next to nothing. A complete abuse in attack and the always favorite for years to win the award for best player of the season. The most striking thing about his game and his dominance is precisely the least striking; It’s not what he does (which too) but how he does it.
There is one fact that perfectly illustrates that Jokic plays in a league of his own: gamescore (GmSc). This is a statistic that is similar to the European assessment; a metric that measures a player’s production in a game; combines points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks), and also takes into account negative statistics (missed shots, turnovers, fouls). Evaluate a player’s impact on a game, but everything can be averaged. Seasons of previous MVPs, such as Stephen Curry in 2016they have a GmSc promedio of 23,23. The one of Westbrook in 2017, 25,04. We’re not talking about anything, these seasons are among the twenty best in history numerically. Giannis Antetokounmpo (26.86 in 2025), Luka Doncic (28 in 2025) y Shai (27.67 this season) dominate this category for the last 20 years. Nicholas Jokicwhich this year maintains a GmSc of 32,6, play in another leaguean exclusive in your name; is above the rest. Last season he already averaged 29, but the Serbian continues to surpass himself. He joker It has no limits.
Another statistic that reflects the impact of a player on his team and reinforces his value even more is the more less (+-), which visually illustrates how better or worse a team is doing when a certain player is on the court. The most stars and league leaders are positioned at a plus minus between +5 and +7. Curry, Alperen Sengun, Chet Holmgren, Victor Wembanyama, Tyrese Maxey; everyone moves between those figures. Superstars, MVP candidates, dominate this statistic: Doncic (+9,38), Antetokounmpo (+10,85) y Shai (+13,54); currently the third best brand in history. The second is from Jokic (+13.72 in 2021-22)but it doesn’t stop there; the fourth, sixth, seventh and ninth are also from Serbian. Nikola has five seasons among the ten best in history (LeBron James has one and Michael Jordan has two) when it comes to this statistic. But the first is still missing. To no one’s surprise, there are not five, there are six in the top 10; Nikola Jokic has the number one this season: +16.41. The best season in history in this category; there is no rival.
The million dollar question: What happens when an unstoppable force collides with an immovable object? This impossible paradox is, to some extent, occurring at the epicenter of this debate. It seems impossible that a player who scores 32.8 pointscapture 4.7 rebounds and distribute 6.5 assists per night, and leads a team with a record of 23-1 what the NBA takes as if it were a playground where he plays against children from lower grades is not the first undisputed candidate to be the most valued player in the league. However, this is exactly the case of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The point guard continues to extend his streak of consecutive games with 20 points; they are already 95 and alone Wilt Chamberlain is ahead (126). To put this feat in perspective, the best streak of LeBron is from 49and that of Curry, 23. Every time the Thunder play, the strange thing is that they don’t lead by twenty points at halftime. Every night, defeat seems more like an impossibility than an inevitability; such is the level of dominance of those of Mark Daigneault. However, this is where the real question arises, even more important than the previous one.
The Thunder are the best team in the league by an abysmal difference. They are so superior that they don’t need Shai to play the last quarters; He has remained on the bench in 11 of his 23 games played during the last period, always because all the fish were already sold. If this streak continues, would miss 42 final quarters because you simply don’t need to play them. A figure that would surpass Curry’s in all respects in the historic year 73-9; he chef He missed only 19 last quarters. If a team is so superior, if Shai doesn’t even need to play, not just the last quarter, but the entire game, is he really the most valuable player in the league? Or is he simply the best player on a team so superior that he has no competition? Both answers can be valid, and the only factor that will determine whether or not the Canadian is the MVP is which of these questions (and their answers) prevail among voters. Last year he won it, but the ‘voter fatigue’ factor could have had a lot to do with it. Shai nailed this year’s numbers, just like Jokic, but The Serbian had won three of the last four, and the Thunder were the novelty; something that did not go unnoticed. It remains to be seen whether or not this year (with a team with a better projection than last year) the Canadian suffers the same phenomenon that harmed the center last season.
A third agent enters this impossible puzzle, the ‘Don’, who also continues to surpass himself. It’s starting to seem impossible that he hasn’t won any MVP in his career yet.. This year, Luka Doncic Yes, he has taken his physical change seriously, something that is being reflected in the game; day in and day out. The Slovenian is by far the NBA’s leading scorer (35.3 points per night) and is close to the triple double (9 rebounds and 9 assists), authentic video game numbers. However, today a near triple double of 35 points puts you third on the list of candidates for the league’s most valued player. An outrage of this caliber would have secured the award a few years ago; in the 2016-17 Westbrook averaged a triple double of 30 points and won the MVP despite the Thunder finishing sixth in the conference. But this is a time of constant improvement, where more and more points are scored, and where the individual demands to win awards of this caliber have become something like a race to see who can hit the most. records, like the one the Slovenian has recently achieved: 14 games with 20 points in the first quarter, the most in history in a season; only 25 games have been played.
The truth is that Austin Reaves has become the ‘Robin‘perfect for Batmanand when the Slovenian does not play the guard assumes the reins of the Lakers. Now, with the return of LeBron, the Angelenos threaten and compete for second place in the West; So far they are on the right track (17-6). If we go by the criterion of ‘newness’, Luka undoubtedly has that point in his favor; He is the only one of the three who has not yet won an MVP. in the season 2023-24 stayed third in the race (34+10+9) behind the same rivals as this year. At the moment, the Slovenian is on his way to at least equaling those numbers. It is already in among the ten historic Lakers players with more than 40 pointsy just arrived to Los Angeles. The most he can do is improve his numbers even more and keep the Lakers in second position. No one has ever averaged a 35-point triple double.; Would it be enough to win the toughest and most demanding MVP in recent times? Only Doncic’s skill and time will answer that question.
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