At the dawn of this season, it was possible to dare by saying that the Denver Broncos were going to be serious contenders for the American West division title, a division that the Chiefs have won every year since 2016. It’s an absolutely mind-blowing series that reminds us of the glory years of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
So far, the Colorado club, with a record of ten wins and two small losses, has delivered the goods and seems in excellent position to end this streak of their rivals from Missouri. It was within the realm of possibility.
What no one predicted, however, was that the Chiefs would score at 3e rank their own division at this point in the season with a neutral record of six triumphs and as many defeats. If the playoffs started today, Kansas City would be out of the picture.
In fact, they are even installed at 10e place in the American rankings two victories from the Buffalo Bills who hold 7e and last level giving access to the Super Bowl hunt.
Never in Mahomes’ prodigious career has such a situation arisen at this point in the calendar.
Unless the Chiefs are perfect from Week 14-18, Mahomes will officially have had the worst campaign of his career.
So far, Kansas City’s worst record with No. 15 starting under center was 11 wins and six losses in the 2023 season. And that didn’t even stop them from finishing the year as Super Bowl champions.
Inability to win close matches
A year ago today, I wrote a column where I discussed the case of these famous Chiefs and the title was “Chiefs not so dominant?”. In it, I argued that with their record of 11 triumphs and one loss, they were the least dominant team in history to have put together such a record.
With a ratio of points scored and allowed of only +54, they had established a new NFL mark in this regard and this was explained by their ability to emerge victorious from a multitude of very close confrontations, on several occasions by simple luck.
In particular, I counted seven scenarios where Kansas City could have suffered a defeat in games with a gap of one possession or less.
The universe having this desire for balance, the Chiefs, as one could imagine, are this year much more often on the wrong side in this same type of situation.
They were involved in seven duels that ended in an offensive possession gap and in six of those clashes, they suffered defeat. They lacked opportunism in many respects and that is why they find themselves in this unfortunate position.
Not a bad team though
Looking at the record of this team which has risen to the rank of dynasty in recent years, one might believe that there is a major factor which explains their setbacks week after week.
However, overall, the offense is far from bad as it produces an average of 25.4 points per game, which earns it 9e level in the Goodell circuit.
They are even in the top 5 with 374.8 overall offensive yards per game. It should be noted that this is the only team with a neutral record in the top 10 best attacks in the league.
Mahomes isn’t to blame either as he clocks in at 4e ranks in the NFL with 3,238 air yards and is 5the position for touchdown passes with 22. He has only seven interceptions and three lost fumbles for a total of ten turnovers. It’s not perfect, but it’s far from his worst season in this regard.
Defensively, Kansas City may be a less dominant affair than last year, but coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit isn’t the problem either as it gets to the 7e ranked in the NFL with an average of 20.7 points allowed per game. Once again, Kansas City is the only team with a neutral record to find itself in the top 10 in this regard.
When you look at the performance against the pass and the ground game separately, it’s difficult to see a real dent in Spagnuolo’s brigade. The Chiefs are 10e for against land attacks and 12e against the pass. It’s far from bad.
The Chiefs are even positive in terms of turnovers with 17 caused and 15 allowed to the opponent.
Can they sneak in?
Considering all of this, it is possible to say that it is still possible to see a team without any major weaknesses being in danger of being excluded from the playoff picture. Right now, of course, the Chiefs have to forget about the division title, because with another win, the Broncos should settle that matter soon.
Kansas City must therefore focus on catching up with clubs like the Bills (8-4), the Los Angeles Chargers (8-4), the Indianapolis Colts (8-4), the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4), the Houston Texans (7-5).
She must also keep behind her at least one of the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) or the Baltimore Ravens (6-6), two teams fighting for the North Division title and a ticket to the playoffs.
As you can see, there is congestion to sneak into the playoffs in the American. And since the Chiefs must forget the division title, they must battle with eight other clubs for the last three available places while being the worst positioned team of the lot. It’s quite a challenge!
The last five games of their campaign will also not be easy. This Sunday, they will have to compete against the tough Texans who are also in survival mode.
And since it was Kansas City that knocked Houston out of the playoffs last season, there is a risk of a whiff of revenge surrounding this duel. Then from that, we talk about two not easy clashes against the Chargers and the Broncos.
To enter the Super Bowl hunt again, Kansas City must at least get four wins in five games. At least, Mahomes and his gang will have easy games against the Tennessee Titans (1-11) and the Las Vegas Raiders (2-10), but they will absolutely have to find a way to beat two excellent clubs…
The dynasty may well be over.
