Germany’s 2026 World Cup Chances: Analysis & Predictions

IIn 2002, the competition at the top of the Bundesliga was still so intact that television people often expressed the suspicion that a well-known British film director had thought it all up. Things are so exciting in this league, “as if (Alfred) Hitchcock had directed,” was the stereotypical saying. FC Bayern was the most powerful club in the country back then, but it was not yet the lone ruler like it is today. It wasn’t a miraculous exception when other clubs celebrated the championship. Just like in 2002: Borussia Dortmund won the title, Leverkusen came second, Bayern third, each separated by a single point. A Hitchcock finale.

However, when the national team played at that time, the reference was not big cinema, but the melancholy late work of the TV series Derrick or even the ZDF program “Rocking Chair”. Two months before the start of the World Cup in Japan and South Korea, Bayern professional Jens Jeremies was seriously asked whether Germany should stay at home in order not to damage its reputation. Jeremies then dared to prophesy that the doubting country would still be surprised. This was laughed at and dismissed as defiance. But Jeremies was right: the Germans lost the final in Yokohama, but they played more Brazilian than their opponents Brazil.

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Nobody is currently demanding that the DFB cancel the travel arrangements for the World Cup in the USA, Mexico and Canada. But there is no longer much hope for the title. Instead, national coach Julian Nagelsmann is retroactively accused of blindness or hubris because he declared after the unfortunate quarter-final exit at the European Championships in the summer of 2024 that he wanted to “become world champions” with his team.

Nagelsmann learned that this formulation made him vulnerable in this strangely defeatist country. Criticizing the national coach is legitimate, he always provides opportunities for this. But the desire to win the World Cup is not objectionable. He is natural. Not just because a German national coach is traditionally obliged to achieve the highest goals – unlike his colleagues from Uzbekistan and Haiti. But because Nagelsmann can choose from outstanding players. Florian Wirtz and Nick Woltemade, for example, are currently receiving the best training in the Premier League, the best league in the world, and are increasingly expanding their repertoire. Or the delegation from Munich led by Joshua Kimmich: a key element of the national team that can be promisingly supplemented by Lennart Karl, who is still not of age.

In 2002, team boss Rudi Völler did not have such a strong FC Bayern, which not only provided a well-coordinated group of professionals but also a possible tactical concept. He had to improvise to find enough people – Nagelsmann could form an A and a B squad for the World Cup. Sure: There may be more talent in France that is even more exciting. England’s team may now have reached the level of champions. And the European champions Spain play, as if automatically, probably the best combination football in the universe.

But the polymath Lothar Matthäus is right when he says: “You shouldn’t make yourself smaller than you are. Germany is not small.” With the momentum necessary for a tournament, Germany can suddenly become huge next summer.

Aiko Tanaka

Aiko Tanaka is a combat sports journalist and general sports reporter at Archysport. A former competitive judoka who represented Japan at the Asian Games, Aiko brings firsthand athletic experience to her coverage of judo, martial arts, and Olympic sports. Beyond combat sports, Aiko covers breaking sports news, major international events, and the stories that cut across disciplines — from doping scandals to governance issues to the business side of global sport. She is passionate about elevating the profile of underrepresented sports and athletes.

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