College basketball seems to lead all other sports in absurd trends, but they repeat themselves year after year. One of my favorite versions is that every national champion since 2005 has been ranked among the Top 12 in AP Poll in Week 6. This Week 6 AP Poll may seem arbitrary, but I think it’s a good indicator of the team’s success later in the season.
Preseason contenders have already suffered significant losses in the Thanksgiving tournaments, and teams we underestimated have had a chance to rise in the AP Poll. Some teams have a great chance to break out in March of this season, so here are some teams that still have value as NCAA Tournament contenders.
Iowa State +1400
I may be late to the party with this pick, but Iowa State appears to be a national title contender so far in 2025. TJ Otzelberger has historically led Cyclone teams to exceed preseason expectations, so it might be time to start respecting Iowa State.
The Cyclones posted the most impressive victory of the season in college basketball, defeating an undefeated Purdue team. I’ve had a slightly lower opinion of Purdue than most, but crushing the Boilermakers in West Lafayette is no joke. This Iowa State team has very versatile playing depth with Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson and Blake Buchanan. They are KenPom’s number two defense, with a hyper-efficient offense to complement it. I’m looking forward to seeing how they do in a loaded Big 12.
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Gonzaga +1500
Mark Few’s Bulldogs suffered a 40-point loss to arguably the best team in the country, Michigan, but I still believe this team will be a contender come March. It’s hard to ignore such a lopsided loss, but with a veteran team like this, I’m confident they’ll use that poor performance to motivate themselves throughout the year.
They don’t seem to have regretted that loss too much, as they have bounced back with two straight wins by an average of 43 points, including a resounding neutral-court victory over a talented (but underperforming) Kentucky team. Few teams have as veteran a presence as Gonzaga in the tournament.
The Bulldogs’ twin towers, Braden Huff and Graham Ike, will be a nightmare for smaller teams. Still, I like it the addition of Tyon Grant-Foster and how he has cemented a dubious bottom line for Gonzaga.
I think that trio can win a lot of games for Gonzaga, but I still want to see another point guard step up when Grant-Foster can’t carry the offensive load against teams that can put defensive pressure up top. If Steele Venters or Jalen Warley can be that spark, this team will be a national title favorite, so invest in the Bulldogs now.
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Brigham Young University +2500
I love this BYU offense. AJ Dybantsa has fit right in with an elite Cougars offense and has made it even better this year. This selection is, without a doubt, the best value I have given so far.
What triumphs in March? An elite base game, and that is precisely what you get at BYU. Richie Saunders was excellent in the tournament last year and has improved even more this season. Transfer Robert Wright III has added even more depth to BYU’s backcourt this year, and Keba Keita has formed an excellent frontcourt duo with Dybantsa.
Still, this team has some concerns. He doesn’t have much depth, so if he gets into foul trouble, he could be in trouble. I also don’t think this team has a way to stop teams that can put a lot of pressure at the rim. However, you don’t need depth to win in March, as most teams reduce their reserves a lot, so I’m not too concerned.
Overall, BYU is one of the most fun teams to watch in the country and has an offense that could win games in March.
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