The Lebanese are on the edge of their seats, waiting to see what the House of Representatives will do next. The government, after getting the green light from President Joseph Aoun, has sent over a draft law to tweak the electoral system. The big question on everyone’s mind: will it go straight to a full floor debate, or will it get bogged down in the committees? And what about those looming deadlines?
Ghassan Rifi, a writer and political analyst, dropped some serious insights in a recent chat with “Lebanon Debate.” He revealed that during a visit to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri by the Editors’ Syndicate,the Speaker didn’t hold back his thoughts on the government’s move. Berri reportedly felt the government had essentially thrown a ball of fire into the bosom of the Parliament
by pushing through changes so abruptly, without giving anyone the full picture.It felt, Rifi suggested, like the government was trying to pin the blame on Parliament for a decision they hadn’t handled well themselves.
Rifi pointed out that this way of introducing the law has created a real mess. the timing, he stressed, was entirely off, and dealing with this whole situation requires a serious rethink of how the law was even presented. He made it clear that Speaker Berri isn’t just going to rubber-stamp whatever comes his way; Speaker Berri is not a mailbox
.
He went on to emphasize that Parliament absolutely has the right to send any proposed law to the relevant committees, especially the one tasked with electoral law studies. Rifi also let slip that a potential choice was discussed: ditching the six seats allocated for expatriates in exchange for scrapping the idea of Lebanese voters choosing from 128 candidates. In simpler terms, it’s a proposal to get rid of the diaspora constituency
and go back to the old system where lebanese citizens vote for all 128 candidates within their conventional districts, but still from within lebanon. This idea even included a suggestion to push the elections back to the summer, hoping to give expatriates who typically return home than a chance to cast their ballots.
Rifi noted that Speaker Berri was pretty clear on this point, stating that any expatriate who’s registered in their country of residence can vote freely in Lebanon. He also agreed that a summer election could boost expatriate turnout. Though, this idea didn’t gain much traction politically, and the conversation apparently fizzled out.
Political Pressure Mounts, But berri Stands Firm
Rifi sees a lot of political maneuvering happening right now, with various factions trying to steer the electoral law debate in a specific direction.But, he added, everyone knows that President Berri isn’t swayed by political pressure. He believes the correct constitutional path involves sending the proposal to parliamentary committees, which have the full authority to review, study, and amend it.
Elections on the Horizon for Postponement? A Year or Two?
Looking at the stances of different political groups, Rifi is convinced that most of the political landscape in Lebanon isn’t keen on holding elections on schedule. This has led to a strong feeling that a postponement is already decided, and the current focus is just on finding the best way to announce it.
Rifi predicts we could be looking at a delay of one to two years. He cited the rising political tensions and the influence of regional factors as reasons why constitutional deadlines might be missed, leading to a postponement that becomes unavoidable.
