The false suspense did not last: senators and deputies promptly noted their differences on the Social Security budget on Wednesday, November 26, returning the government’s text to the National Assembly before a crucial week for its future.
No compromise version of this bill, one of the two budgets currently under consideration in Parliament, could be found, in the face of the orthogonal positions of the Senate and the Assembly on the suspension of pension reform or the freezing of social minimums and retirement pensions.
A few hours after the Senate adopted its own copy, seven deputies and seven senators recorded their disagreements in forty minutes. For the government, Amélie de Montchalin (Public Accounts) took “note” of the failure of this joint committee (CMP), believing that it was possible to “find agreements” following the parliamentary shuttle.
Crucial week ahead
Difficult to follow for the general public, especially as the subjects of negotiations multiply on the State and Social Security budgets, the debates will enter a crucial week. The senatorial version of the Social Security budget will be rewritten in the Assembly, on Saturday in committee and especially from Tuesday in the hemicycle, during a decisive week (the debates are scheduled until December 7). “We must still have a somewhat global vision of what the landing point could be before December 2,” calls Jérôme Guedj, PS deputy. “It’s the moment of truth, we need to talk to each other, including between parliamentary groups.”
To have a chance, the copy must already be acceptable to the socialists, who have bet on non-censorship of Sébastien Lecornu’s government, in particular in exchange for a “suspension” of the pension reform. Some in the government camp hope that the PS will vote for the Social Security budget rather than abstain and expect that enough ecologists and communists will do the same. “Voting for the state budget is impossible. The Social Security budget is less hard,” points out a deputy on the right wing of the PS. A colleague finds it “complicated all the same” to vote on a budget, a traditional marker of support for the government.
The vote of the Socialists, even favorable, would perhaps not be enough if the deputies Horizons and Les Républicains, scalded by the concessions to the PS, abstain or vote against. Because the vote could be very close if the Insoumis and the National Rally vote against. “These people must be overthrown and censored, period,” insists Hadrien Clouet, LFI deputy. “If we want to make the French believe that we are going to validate a deficit of 25 billion euros, good luck,” warns Jean-Philippe Tanguy (RN), accusing the government of wanting to “exhaust public opinion” to resort to ordinances or 49.3, even if the executive insists that it is not considering it.
Other parliamentarians imagine the government reversing its decision and using 49.3, believing that it will be easier for the PS not to censor the executive than to vote on its text.
“Cash flow crisis”
In substance, the “suspension” of the pension reform, rejected by the senators, should in particular be reinstated in the Assembly. The left also hopes to restore an increase in part of the CSG levied specifically on capital income, a measure which was expected to bring in 2.8 billion euros in 2026. The PS is partly counting on it to compensate for the removal of the government’s irritating savings measures. Like the “white year”, a freezing of social minimums and retirement pensions, usually indexed to inflation. An effective measure (3.6 billion euros in savings in 2026) but highly flammable.
On an accounting level, the government hopes to reduce the Social Security deficit to a maximum of 20 billion euros (compared to 24 billion in the Assembly’s copy, and 17.6 in that of the Senate according to its calculations). The absence of a Social Security budget “will lead inexorably to a deficit of 29 billion euros, setting the stage for a major cash flow crisis,” Labor Minister Jean-Pierre Farandou told senators.
Another sign of a very sensitive debate on this text, the liberal doctors’ unions have called a strike from January 5. On a political level, the executive hopes above all that adoption would bring a positive wind to the state budget, which is even more difficult to pass. “If you passed the (Secu budget), you are halfway there […] It’s absolutely major,” thinks a minister.
