MadridThe BBVA host hostile to Banco Sabadell has just entered a new scenario with an improvement in the offer through which the Basque Bank of Origin wants to try to convince the Catalan Bank shareholders to accept the OPA. At the moment, there are still a few days to know if the announcement this Monday will have its effects on the investors and, therefore, on the outcome of an almost preceding operation that began sixteen months ago. However, the analysts are already pronounced and the BBVA’s announcement has not convinced them.
The consensus of different analysis firms is that the improvement of the offer is insufficient and will not allow the control of more than half of the Catalan entity, as follows from different reports that the ARA has accessed. The BBVA would not achieve the minimum percentage of acceptance initially raised (that 50% or more of Sabadell’s social capital will go to the OPA), but would be more likely to overcome the 30% threshold, which is the other requirement. This scenario, however, is not ideal for the Basque bank, because it forces him to launch a second OPA in Sabadell for 100% of the share capital and, therefore, an offer that incorporates cash.
From Alantra, for example, they consider the climb “not attractive enough” and point out that the same target price is 3.90 euros, 15% above the new offer. “Equal the current market price is not a stir,” says analysts. The firm also adds the disappearance with the new toll offer to the Treasury as an element that can play in favor of the BBVA, although it places the acceptance of the OPA below 50%.
JB Capital, another sign of analysis, considers that the 10% rise is a step forward but “not enough”. They also place the Catalan Bank as a favorite. In addition, house analysts consider Sabadell shareholders to receive 20% less dividends during the period of 2025-2027, according to their own estimates. “Even if the offer fails, which is now most likely, Sabadell offers a total profitability of 23% for the next nine months,” they say in a report.
Public defense of the offer
So far, the BBVA had not shown any doubt about the offer proposed. “The offer is the offer,” said the bank’s CEO, Onur Genç, who had even spoke “of speculation” when asked about a possibility that the market did value. Sources in the sector consulted by the ARA directly link it to the need to please minority shareholders, who have a particular crusade against the OPA with almost half of the capital of the Banco Sabadell capital in their hands. “BBVA has worked with institutional investors […]. The thing could be very tight, “say the same sources.
The new terms represent “ a more serious offer than some shareholders of the Sabadell could consider and reduce the gap between success and failure, ” Kepler’s analysts indicate, who, unlike some firms, read the announcement this Monday from the “ surprise ” because the BBVA dome had publicly defended the price. Finally, CaixaBank BPI believes that the increase is below the 15% -20% range that this analysis firm argued that the initial offer would need to be improved. “Although the climb can give a successful opportunity to the BBVA, the offer continues to value Sabadell below our own valuations of 3.55 euros the action,” they emphasized.
So far, the BBVA has offered a new ordinary action of his and 70 cents for every 5.5483 titles from Sabadell. With the modification of this Monday, a proposal is fully in ordinary shares of new BBVA issuance, at the rate of an ordinary action of the BBVA for every 4.8376 ordinary actions of Banco Sabadell. This change, according to the BBVA, improves the offer of 10% and the taxation for shareholders.
