Parisians have reason to feel uneasy as the latest developments in the competition have cast a shadow over their chances. Following Stuttgart’s and PSV’s victories, coupled with Bruges’ draw, Paris Saint-Germain’s likelihood of advancing to the play-offs has dropped to 59%, down from 67% earlier in the day, according to mathematician Julien Guyon’s analysis. The upcoming match against Manchester City now carries immense weight: a win would boost PSG’s qualification probability to 85%, while a draw or loss would drastically reduce it to 39% and 33%, respectively.
Brest’s Hopes Hang in the Balance
Stade Brestois’ aspirations of securing a spot in the round of 16 have been put on hold. Earlier this week, the possibility still existed, but Atalanta’s dominant 5-0 win over Sturm Graz and Atlético de Madrid’s 2-1 victory against Leverkusen have dashed those hopes. Nonetheless of their performance against Shakhtar Donetsk this Wednesday, Brest’s fate will ultimately be decided when they face Real Madrid on January 29.
Despite the setback, Brest’s chances of making it to the top eight have seen a slight improvement. Thanks to Dortmund’s unexpected loss to Bologna, their probability now stands at 36%, as highlighted by Julien Guyon. Breaking it down further, a win against Shakhtar would elevate their odds to 66%, while a draw or defeat would leave them with 26% and 8% chances, respectively.
