2024 All-MLB Team: Predictions vs. Reality

Predicting baseball’s best is a fool’s errand,a truth reinforced by the unveiling of the 2024 All-MLB first and Second Teams,presented by MGM Rewards. Preseason forecasts, while valiant, often crumble under the weight of unexpected performances and unforeseen injuries. how did the experts fare? Let’s dissect the hits and misses.

^ indicates that the player received votes in our preseason poll.

Catcher: A Tale of Two Halves

Predictions: Adley rutschman, BAL (1st); Will Smith, LAD (2nd)
Results: William Contreras, MIL (1st)^; Salvador Pérez, KC (2nd)

The catcher position proved especially volatile. While Rutschman and smith earned All-Star nods, their second-half slumps paved the way for Contreras and Pérez to seize All-MLB honors. Contreras, in particular, exploded offensively, while Pérez showcased veteran resilience.

Key Insight: The physical toll on catchers is immense. Maintaining consistency both offensively and defensively throughout a grueling season is a rare feat.

First Base: Guerrero’s Resurgence

Predictions: Freddie Freeman, LAD (1st); Bryce Harper, PHI (2nd)
Results: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.,TOR (1st)^; Harper (2nd)

Freeman,despite missing the All-MLB team,etched his name in postseason lore with a World Series MVP performance. Harper seamlessly transitioned to first base, meeting expectations. Though, the true revelation was Guerrero Jr., who rediscovered his elite form after a somewhat lackluster 2023.

Key Insight: Guerrero’s 2021 MVP runner-up finish was no fluke. His return to prominence positions him as a coveted free agent in the upcoming winter.

Second Base: Marte’s Moment

Predictions: Marcus Semien, TEX (1st); José Altuve, HOU (2nd)
results: Ketel Marte, ARI (1st); Altuve (2nd)

Altuve delivered another dependable season, while Semien, despite a strong 2023, ceded the spotlight to Marte. The arizona second baseman enjoyed a career year,finishing third in National League MVP voting.

Key Insight: Marte’s consistent excellence deserves recognition.

Third Base: A Position in Flux

Predictions: Austin riley,ATL (1st); José Ramírez,CLE (2nd)
Results: Ramírez (1st); Manny machado,SD (2nd)

Third base experienced an unexpected talent drought. Ramírez remained a steady force, while Riley’s season was derailed by injury. Machado, hampered by an early-season elbow injury, rebounded strongly in the latter months.

Key Insight: Don’t underestimate a healthy Machado. His late-season surge hints at a return to his All-Star caliber.

Shortstop: Witt’s Breakout

Predictions: Mookie Betts, LAD (1st); Bobby Witt Jr., KC (2nd)
Results: Witt Jr. (1st); Francisco Lindor, NYM (2nd)

Betts’s selfless move to shortstop showcased his versatility, but Witt Jr.’s emergence as a five-tool superstar was undeniable. The Royals shortstop cemented his place among baseball’s elite.

Key Insight: Betts’s future at shortstop remains uncertain, but Witt jr.’s star is firmly on the rise.

Outfield: Bronx Bombers Dominate

Predictions: Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL; Julio Rodríguez, SEA; Juan Soto, NYY (1st); Fernando Tatis Jr., SD; Aaron Judge, NYY; Corbin Carroll, AZ (2nd)
Results: Soto, Judge, Betts (1st); Jackson Merrill, S.D.; Jarren Durán, BOS; Teóscar Hernández, LAD (2nd)

Soto and Judge thrived in the Bronx, with Judge capturing his second American League MVP award. Injuries hampered Acuña Jr.,while Rodríguez and Carroll struggled to replicate their previous success. The emergence of Merrill as a standout centre fielder was a pleasant surprise.

Key Insight: Merrill’s rapid development highlights the unpredictable nature of prospect evaluation.

Designated Hitter: Ohtani’s Inevitable Triumph

Predictions: Shohei Ohtani, LAD (1st); Yordan Álvarez, HOU (2nd)
Results: Ohtani (1st); Álvarez (2nd)

Ohtani’s selection was a foregone conclusion.Even limited to designated hitter duties, he delivered another unforgettable season. Álvarez continued his consistent offensive production, solidifying his place among the league’s best hitters.

Key Insight: Ohtani’s ability to amaze is perhaps the most reliable constant in baseball.

Starting Pitcher: Elbows and Upsets

Predictions: Spencer Strider, ATL; Corbin Burnes, BAL; Zack Wheeler, PHI; Pablo López, MIN; George Kirby, SEA (1st); Logan Webb, SF; Tarik Skubal, DET; Luis Castillo, SEA; Zac Gallen, AZ; Max Fried, ATL (2nd)
Results: Chris Sale, ATL^; Skubal; Paul Skenes, PIT; Wheeler, Burnes (1st); Seth Lugo, KC; Dylan Cease, SD^; Shota Imanaga, CHC, Framber Valdez, HOU; Michael King, SD (2nd)

Injuries decimated the preseason favorites, with Strider’s season ending prematurely.Sale resurrected his career, earning the National League Cy Young Award. Burnes and Wheeler lived up to expectations, while Skubal emerged as a rising star. skenes exceeded expectations,Imanaga impressed,and Lugo delivered a surprising performance in his second year as a starter.

Key Insight: Predicting pitcher performance is a risky endeavor. Sale’s resurgence demonstrates the potential for veteran pitchers to rediscover their form.

Relief Pitcher: A Volatile Landscape

predictions: Edwin Díaz, NYM; Josh Hader, HOU (1st); Camilo Doval, SF; Andrés Muñoz, SEA (2nd)
Results: Emmanuel Clase, CLE; Ryan Helsley, STL (1st); Mason Miller, ATH^; Kirby Yates, TEX (2nd)

Díaz and Hader, while still effective, failed to reach their usual heights. Doval lost his closer role, while Clase enjoyed a historic season. Helsley led the majors in saves, Miller emerged as a dominant rookie, and Yates enjoyed a career resurgence.

Key Insight: Predicting reliever performance is akin to guesswork.

Exclusive Interview: “The Stat Geek” Gary nelson Debates 2024 all-MLB Snubs, Surprises, and Future Stars!

(Image: A split screen: One side showing Gary Nelson in a sports-themed room, the other showing a collage of images of All-MLB team members.)

Welcome, sports fans, to a no-holds-barred analysis of the 2024 All-MLB Team! Preseason predictions are always a gamble, and the actual results often throw us for a curveball, or maybe several. Joining us today is Gary Nelson, a lifelong baseball fanatic, data guru, and someone I affectionately call “The Stat Geek.” Gary has attended countless games,devoured every stat imaginable,and isn’t afraid to challenge conventional wisdom.Welcome, Gary!

gary Nelson: Thanks for having me! Always ready to dissect some baseball.

Moderator: Alright, Gary, let’s dive right in. The article highlights the volatility at the catcher position. Adley Rutschman and Will Smith where the preseason darlings, but William Contreras and Salvador Pérez ultimately took the All-MLB honors. Were you surprised?

Gary Nelson: Surprised, but not shocked.Rutschman undeniably possesses superstar potential, but that second-half slump was brutal. we’re talking about a .215 batting average after the All-Star break! Smith, while still productive, saw a dip in his power numbers. contreras, on the other hand, put together a truly remarkable season, especially offensively, and Perez resurrected his career in dramatic fashion. The key is durability at that position. Can those guys maintain that pace for 162 games again next year? That’s the question.

Moderator: A good point. The physical toll on catchers is immense. But I have to play devil’s advocate here. Don’t you think name recognition and early-season hype play a notable role in these preseason predictions? Are we sometimes too quick to anoint already established players, even if thier performance doesn’t entirely warrant it?

Gary Nelson: Absolutely. There’s a bias towards established stars. But that bias exists for a reason. These players have earned that reputation through years of consistent performance. The challenge is identifying when that performance starts to decline. In Rutschman and Smith’s case, the drop-off was evident, giving guys like Contreras and Pérez the opening they needed. Remember Mike Piazza in his prime? He defined consistency behind the plate!

Moderator: Speaking of rebounds, let’s talk about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Predicted as a first baseman, and he delivered. But the article suggests he “rediscovered his elite form.” I’m not sure I entirely agree. While his numbers were improved compared to 2023, they still weren’t at the MVP-caliber level we saw in 2021. What’s your take?

Gary Nelson: That’s fair. His 2021 season was truly historic, a .311 average with 48 home runs! But he definitely showed improvement. His OPS jumped back up to around .800, and he showed a renewed commitment at the plate. I think “rediscovered” is a bit strong, but “back on track” feels accurate. The Blue Jays desperately needed him to step up, and he did, to a point. He’s still young, and that 2021 potential is absolutely still there. The AL East is brutal. Can Vlad really shine if he goes to a weaker division?

Moderator: And you mentioned his upcoming free agency. Big money is certainly in his future. Moving on, Ketel Marte taking the second base first-team spot over Marcus Semien…was that a surprise to you?

Gary nelson: Yes and no. Semien had a fantastic year and delivered a World Series to the Rangers. But Marte was sensational, he really was. He was the engine that drove the Diamondbacks’ surprising World Series run. his postseason performance alone might have swayed voters. The key here is the context. Semien had a great team around him. Marte was the team.

Moderator: Let’s delve into a more controversial area: the outfield.Juan Soto and Aaron Judge were predictable, but Mookie Betts on the first team, as an outfielder, given his time at shortstop? And then Jackson Merrill, Jarren Duran, and Teoscar Hernández on the second team? What’s your reaction?

Gary Nelson: Okay, let’s unpack this. Betts is a phenomenal athlete, there’s no doubt whatsoever. But his selection as an outfielder despite spending significant time at shortstop smacks of reputation over actual position played. He deserves to be on the All-MLB team, but the outfield designation feels…forced.

Moderator: I agree. it’s almost like voters couldn’t bring themselves to leave him off entirely.

Gary Nelson: Exactly! As for the second team, Merrill is a fantastic story – a young prospect exceeding expectations. Duran had a breakout year. Hernández…well, he’s always had the potential. The omission of guys like Julio Rodríguez or Corbin Carroll, who were widely predicted to be stars, does raise some eyebrows. Were other outfielders better? Yes. By a landslide. It showcases the unpredictable nature of the season.

Moderator: Which brings us to the pitching. The number of injuries among predicted starters was staggering.Chris Sale of all people with the NL Cy Young and named to the All-MLB team?

Gary Nelson: (Laughs) Who had that on their bingo card? Sale’s resurgence is a testament to his talent and his determination. He’s a competitor, and he finally found a way to stay healthy. The fact that he lead Atlanta to a championship is a testament to that. What about the others? Skubal is a future ace and showed flashes of sheer dominance, and Skenes…Skenes is the pitcher to watch.He has the potential to be a generational talent.

Moderator: And on the closer side, Edwin Díaz and Josh Hader both failed to live up to the hype, while emmanuel Clase and Ryan Helsley dominated. How much of reliever performance is luck versus skill?

Gary Nelson: It’s probably 60% skill, 40% luck and situation. I was not surprised that Clase broke out again. He has the talent. Hader and Diaz dealt with some injuries, but for the record, have always been overrated. The volatility of the closer role is precisely why it’s so difficult to predict. Look at Mason Miller – a rookie emerging as a lights-out closer. Predicting that in the preseason would have been insane.

Moderator: Absolutely. So, Gary what’s the biggest takeaway from this year’s All-MLB team?

Gary Nelson: The all-MLB teams underscored the unpredictable nature of baseball. Preseason predictions are fun, but ultimately, performance on the field is what counts. The best thing to do is to simply sit back and watch. A lot can change.

Moderator: Wonderful insights, Gary. Thanks so much for joining us.

Gary Nelson: My pleasure.always happy to talk baseball.

(End of Interview)

Reader Engagement:

Do you agree with Gary Nelson on which players deserved a spot on the All-MLB Team? Were there any major snubs? Share your thoughts in the comments below! Who are your early predictions for the 2025 All-MLB team? Let us know!