Caleb Williams’ Dominant Performance Raises His Stock as Top QB Prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft

Deion Sanders’ Colorado defense had no shot against Caleb Williams for much of three quarters Saturday. Williams completed 17 passes in a row at one point, and he finished the first half alone 17-of-20 for 260 yards and four TDs.

However, the Buffs pushed back after halftime, picking off Williams (the reigning Heisman winner’s first interception of the season) and shutting out the Trojans in the fourth quarter. No. 4 USC held on for a 48-41 victory, and Williams banked 403 yards and six passing TDs against a depleted Colorado secondary, but it was hardly a comfortable final few minutes.

Even so, Williams’ grip on the No. 1 spot in the 2024 NFL Draft class continues to look secure.

Dane Brugler’s top 2024 QBs (preseason)

PlayerSchoolHt, Wt

1. Caleb Williams

6-1, 220

2. Drake Maye

6-4, 230

3. J.J. McCarthy

6-3, 196

4. Quinn Ewers

6-2, 205

5. Riley Leonard

6-4, 212

More on Williams’ latest performance and where he stands in the NFL’s eyes:

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Against a suspect and short-handed Colorado defense, Williams performed exactly how you would expect the future No. 1 pick to play. For most of the game, the Buffs defense couldn’t make him uncomfortable in the pocket — and when Williams has any type of time, he will pick you apart.

Considering the competition, there is only so much scouts can take away from this tape. But it was another opportunity to marvel at Williams’ unique arm talent, as well as his manipulation of throwing angles and overall creativity as a quarterback.

It wasn’t a perfect performance — Williams was slightly off-target on a few throws and late throwing a third-quarter wheel route, which resulted in his first interception of the season. However, there is no mystery about why he is the overwhelming favorite to be the top pick in the draft. — Dan Brugler

How big is the gap between Williams and others in this class?

Though Williams is the clear favorite for QB1, Drake Maye — and his exciting skill set — isn’t far behind. Those two quarterbacks are the top tier in the class. How many quarterbacks make up the second tier? And in what order? Those questions elicit different answers, depending on whom you ask.

Regardless of which juniors declare, the only thing most can agree on is that there is a clear gap between Williams and Maye and whoever ends up being QB3. — Brugler

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No matter how you look at it, Williams is the clear-cut top QB in this class. There are other impressive dual-threat quarterbacks, but Williams proved last season when he tucked and ran that he is the most dangerous QB in the FBS. Most of the other quarterbacks in this class have strong arms, but not many of them can maintain their velocity and accuracy on the move like Williams can — especially to all three levels of the field.

Now that Williams has become more focused on working within the structure of the offense and keeping his eyes downfield as he extends, we’re seeing a quarterback who can get through progressions and get the ball out on time. Maye has superstar potential, so he’s not too far behind, but even his best qualities aren’t outpacing what Williams can offer. — Diante Lee

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Maye’s numbers to start the season have been misleading. North Carolina doesn’t have a run game, its receivers have already dropped nine passes (tied for fifth nationally), and the offensive line has had issues. The only consistently good thing for the Tar Heels has been Maye. And, frankly, that he has overcome poor play around him to keep his team unbeaten (for now) could be a big plus as NFL scouts evaluate him.

Before the season, some people around the league thought Maye was the better prospect because he shares many traits with Williams and is a bigger QB. He’s had to overcome much more adversity this season, and that certainly won’t be overlooked. — Nick Baumgardner

What’s left for Williams to prove?

It’s long been hard to figure out how many of Williams’ successful gambles at the college level will translate to the NFL. Plenty will, to be sure. There’s a Patrick Mahomes quality here, in that no offensive coordinator will want to mute Williams’ natural instincts as a runner and playmaker. So, ultimately, it’ll be on Williams to prove that balance of knowing when to extend a pass play outside progression and when to cut bait and get north and south.

He’s not going to be able to pull every rabbit out of his hat in the league, and odds are he’s going to be working behind a bad offensive line, at least early. It’s a small nitpick, and it requires a lot of coaching nuance (of which Riley does a great job), but Williams has to keep working on finding that balance for himself. — Baumgardner

When it isn’t a quick throw, Williams often goes big-play hunting and — most of the time — gets away with holding the ball for an extended period of time. Williams has an instinctive internal clock, and you can’t fault him for being patient. He also has rare balance and pocket athleticism to buy extra time.

However, passing windows get much smaller at the next level, and NFL speed is a different animal. There are plenty of examples on tape of Williams speeding up his process when needed. But NFL scouts want to see him continue to develop his read efficiency by eliminating things quicker and anticipating the tight windows instead of waiting for other targets to work open. — Brugler

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This notion is often more about a results-based narrative than how a player performs on a play-to-play basis, but I still need to see how Williams handles top competition or additional close games in 2023. It’s one thing to stay calm, collected and in control with the lead — especially when you’re playing inferior competition — but it’s another thing to stay consistent when pressure mounts.

Old habits have a way of resurfacing when a QB is under duress. For as explosive as Williams can be as a scrambler or out-of-structure passer, the NFL needs its best passers to operate efficiently from the pocket. That’s the kind of thing we’ve seen from Maye already and something Williams will need to show against Utah, Washington and Oregon. — Lee

(Photo: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)

2023-09-30 20:18:07
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