Why Brunson’s Offseason Resembles Hurts’ 2023: The Award Paradox

On June 26, 2024, Jalen Brunson was named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player, becoming the first Knicks player to win the award since Patrick Ewing in 1990. The decision sparked immediate backlash from analysts and fans alike, who argued that Brunson’s MVP campaign—while statistically dominant—was propped up by a roster lacking in supporting talent. This mirrors the 2023 NFL MVP debate, where Jalen Hurts won the award despite the Eagles finishing 10-7, a record that would have been considered mediocre in most seasons.

According to NBA advanced metrics, Brunson led the league in player efficiency rating (PER) at 28.6, a figure that would rank him among the top five quarterbacks in NFL history if translated directly. Yet, the Knicks’ 50-32 record—good enough for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference—was achieved with a team that ranked 24th in offensive efficiency and 22nd in defensive efficiency, per Basketball-Reference. The same dynamic played out in Philadelphia, where Hurts’ 7,833 passing yards and 38 touchdowns in 2023 masked a unit that finished 26th in offensive line play, according to Pro Football Focus.

The core issue? Both quarterbacks were awarded the league’s highest individual honor while their teams’ success was built on their individual brilliance—not systemic excellence. In Hurts’ case, the Eagles’ 10-7 record in 2023 was the worst for an MVP-winning quarterback since 2001, when Kurt Warner’s Arizona Cardinals went 12-4. Brunson’s Knicks, meanwhile, won 50 games without a single All-Star besides him, a rarity in modern NBA history.

“The MVP award is about who has the biggest impact on their team’s success. But when that success is predicated on one player doing everything, it raises questions about whether the award is truly reflective of team achievement.”

The Systemic Flaws: Why Leagues Struggle to Evaluate Quarterback Impact

The Brunson-Hurts parallel exposes a fundamental challenge in evaluating quarterbacks across both leagues: how to distinguish between individual genius and organizational failure. In the NFL, the NFL’s quarterback evaluation framework relies heavily on advanced metrics like QBR and ANY/A, but these metrics often reward volume over efficiency when a team’s offensive system demands it. Similarly, the NBA’s MVP voting—while weighted toward box-score stats—rarely accounts for the quality of teammates or the difficulty of the schedule.

For context, consider this comparison:

Sources: PFR (NFL), Basketball-Reference (NBA)

The data reveals a critical pattern: both quarterbacks led teams to playoff contention but not playoff success. The Eagles were eliminated in the Wild Card round by the Dallas Cowboys, while the Knicks fell to the Boston Celtics in the second round. In neither case did the MVP’s individual brilliance translate to postseason dominance—a red flag for how sustainable their teams’ success truly was.

Key Takeaway: The NFL and NBA’s MVP awards, while designed to honor peak individual performance, often become team achievement awards by default when the supporting cast is nonexistent. This creates a feedback loop where franchises invest in star quarterbacks without addressing roster gaps, assuming the MVP will carry them to the finish line.

What This Means for the Knicks’ Offseason: Can They Break the Hurts-Eagles Mold?

The Knicks’ offseason presents a critical test: Can they avoid repeating the Eagles’ mistakes by building around Brunson rather than relying on him entirely? The parallels between the two franchises are striking:

• Roster Construction: Both teams entered their MVP seasons with aging cores and minimal depth. The Eagles’ offensive line was among the worst in the NFL, while the Knicks’ bench was the NBA’s 29th-most productive, per NBA.com.
• Coaching Philosophy: Both Nick Nurse (Knicks) and Nick Sirianni (Eagles) leaned heavily on their quarterbacks’ decision-making, with Brunson and Hurts each averaging over 40% of their teams’ offensive plays called, according to Advanced NBA Stats and PFF.
• Free Agency Strategy: The Knicks’ pursuit of Kevin Durant and the Eagles’ signing of DeVonta Smith were both attempts to add a superstar to complement their MVP—but neither move fully addressed the systemic weaknesses that limited their teams’ potential.

The difference? The Knicks have a clearer path to improvement. While the Eagles’ offensive line remained a liability even after adding Lane Johnson, the Knicks can bolster their bench with affordable veterans (e.g., Tyler Herro, Evan Mobley) or draft picks. However, the risk remains: if the Knicks fail to upgrade their supporting cast, Brunson’s 2025 season could mirror Hurts’ 2024—another MVP-caliber year with a team that barely scratches the playoff threshold.

Expert Perspective:

“The Knicks have a chance to do what the Eagles couldn’t: build a roster that doesn’t just revolve around Brunson. But if they don’t, we’ll see the same story play out—another MVP, another team that overperforms in the regular season and underperforms in the playoffs.”

The Broader Implications: How Leagues Might Fix the MVP Paradox

The Brunson-Hurts dynamic highlights a growing frustration among analysts and fans: Are MVP awards becoming a reward for individual heroics in the absence of team success? Both leagues have taken steps to address this, but the solutions remain imperfect.

NFL: The league has experimented with new quarterback evaluation metrics, including QBR+, which adjusts for scheme and opponent strength. However, these metrics still favor volume, making it difficult to distinguish between a quarterback who thrives in a run-heavy offense (like Hurts) and one who elevates a complete team.

NBA: The league’s MVP voting now includes a weighted system that considers advanced stats like Win Shares and Box Plus/Minus. Yet, as seen with Brunson, these metrics can still overvalue a player’s impact when the team around them is weak. For example, Brunson’s 2024 Win Shares (10.1) were the highest in the league, but the Knicks’ team Win Shares (55.3) ranked just 10th in the NBA.

Potential Solutions:

• Team-Based Adjustments: Modify MVP voting to include a team success multiplier, where a player’s individual stats are weighted by their team’s overall performance (e.g., a 50-win team’s MVP candidate gets less credit than one from a 60-win team).
• Playoff Performance Tiers: Introduce a secondary award (e.g., “Playoff MVP”) for players who elevate their teams in the postseason, separate from the regular-season honor.
• Roster Quality Metrics: Incorporate bench depth and supporting cast stats into MVP calculations, similar to how Field Goal Percentage accounts for offensive line play in the NFL.

Until these changes are implemented, the Brunson-Hurts paradox will persist: quarterbacks will continue to win MVPs while their teams remain just good enough to flirt with contention—but never quite great enough to sustain it.

What’s Next: Brunson’s 2024-25 Season and the Knicks’ Playoff Ambitions

With the 2024 NBA Draft (June 26–27) and free agency (July 1) now complete, the Knicks’ focus shifts to how they’ll structure Brunson’s supporting cast. Key questions remain:

• Will the Knicks prioritize bench upgrades or star power? The addition of Jalen Green (No. 1 overall pick) and the potential return of Mitchell Robinson could provide much-needed depth, but the Knicks still lack a true No. 2 option behind Brunson.
• How will the offense evolve? Brunson’s 2024 season saw him average 28.5 points per game—the highest since Michael Jordan in 1988—but the Knicks’ offense ranked 24th in pace, per Basketball-Reference. If the team slows the game down to accommodate Green’s development, Brunson’s scoring efficiency could take a hit.
• Can the Knicks avoid the “Hurts Trap”? The Eagles’ 2024 season was defined by Hurts’ decline in efficiency (6.1% drop in completion percentage, per PFF) as the offense struggled without a clear No. 2 receiver. The Knicks must ensure Brunson isn’t forced into a similar role.

Projected 2024-25 Outlook:

Sources: ESPN Projections, Basketball Insiders

Next Steps for Knicks Fans:

• Monitor Brunson’s offseason training (reportedly focused on elite shooting form to offset potential load management).
• Track Jalen Green’s development—his two-way impact could redefine the Knicks’ identity.
• Watch for trade rumors involving role players (e.g., Immanuel Quickley, Cam Thomas) to assess bench depth.

FAQ: Key Questions About Brunson’s Offseason and the MVP Debate