How Egypt Nearly Upended the Script Against a World Cup Finalist

For 70 minutes, Egypt controlled the narrative. The Pharaohs dominated possession (62% to 38%), created five clear chances, and forced Belgium into defensive disarray. Salah’s penalty came after a controversial foul by Jan Vertonghen on Trézéguet in the box, a decision that sparked immediate debate among referees and analysts.

“We knew Belgium would be physical, but we never expected to dictate play like this,” said coach Héctor Cúper after the match. “The team deserved more, but football is unpredictable.”

The turning point arrived in the 72nd minute when Egypt’s goalkeeper Essam El-Hadary made a crucial save on a Lukaku header, followed by a near-post deflection by Ahmed Fathy that kept Belgium at bay. However, the Red Devils’ resilience in the final 18 minutes proved decisive.

Why This Result Changes Everything for Group G

Egypt’s draw leaves Group G wide open with three teams (Egypt, Belgium, and Iran) on one point each. The Pharaohs now face Iran (June 19, 14:00 UTC) and New Zealand (June 23, 18:00 UTC) in a race where every point matters in the expanded 48-team format.

Key implications:

• Belgium’s vulnerability: The Red Devils, who entered as one of the tournament favorites, now need to win both remaining matches to secure Group G. A loss to Iran or New Zealand would leave them in a playoff spot.
• Egypt’s momentum: The Pharaohs’ performance against a deep squad suggests they can compete with any team, but their late collapse raises questions about their defensive organization.
• Iran’s opportunity: With Belgium now in crisis, Iran (who defeated Canada 2-0 in their opener) could leapfrog both teams with a win against Egypt.

According to FIFA’s expanded tournament rules, the top two teams from each group advance automatically, while the next four best third-placed teams enter a playoff round. Egypt’s draw means they must now win at least one of their remaining matches to avoid a playoff scenario.

The Numbers That Explain Egypt’s World Cup Gamble

Egypt’s campaign is built on three pillars: Salah’s goal-scoring, midfield control, and defensive solidity. Here’s how they fared against Belgium:

While Egypt’s xG (1.4) suggests they deserved more, Belgium’s late equalizer came from a counterattacking opportunity that Egypt’s defense struggled to contain. “We need to improve our defensive transitions,” said Cúper. “We can’t afford to give away goals like that again.”

What Happens Next: Egypt’s Crucial Matches Explained

Egypt’s schedule in Group G is one of the toughest in the tournament, with both remaining matches played in the same city (MetLife Stadium, New Jersey) under extreme heat conditions (forecasted highs of 32°C/90°F).

Iran: A win here would put Egypt in a strong position to advance, but Iran’s defensive organization (they conceded just 2 goals in AFC qualifiers) will be a challenge. “They’re a disciplined team,” said former Egypt international Ahmed Hassan. “We’ll need Salah and our midfield to dominate.”

New Zealand: While New Zealand (who defeated Saudi Arabia 1-0 in their opener) are less experienced, their physicality and set-piece threat (they scored 12 goals in their 2026 qualifiers) could trouble Egypt. “They’re not the most technical, but they’re tough in the air,” said a scout who attended their qualifiers.

Tactical Breakdown: How Egypt Nearly Beat a World Cup Finalist

Egypt’s 4-3-3 formation, deployed by Cúper, proved effective in the first half. Key tactical observations:

• High pressing: Egypt’s front three (Salah, Mohamed Magdy, and Trézéguet) pressed Belgium high, forcing turnovers in dangerous areas. Belgium managed just 12 passes in the first 45 minutes.
• Midfield dominance: Ahmed Fathy and Marwan Hamdallah controlled the tempo, completing 88% of their passes. Their movement drew Belgium’s full-backs out of position.
• Defensive lapses: Egypt’s backline (led by Ahmed Elmohamady) struggled with Belgium’s counterattacks, particularly in the final 20 minutes. “We were too passive in transition,” said Cúper.

Belgium, meanwhile, adapted by dropping deeper and playing more direct football. Lukaku’s equalizer came after a quick break, highlighting Egypt’s need for more defensive cover in wide areas.

Player Spotlight: Salah’s Penalty and the Pharaohs’ Key Performers

While Salah’s penalty was the match-winner, several players stood out:

• Mohamed Salah (Egypt): Scored Egypt’s only goal and was a constant threat, completing 8 out of 10 dribbles.
• Essam El-Hadary (Egypt GK): Made three crucial saves, including a header in the 72nd minute that kept Belgium at bay.
• Romelu Lukaku (Belgium): Scored the equalizer and was Belgium’s most dangerous attacker, completing 6 out of 8 chances.
• Ahmed Fathy (Egypt): Controlled the midfield with 12 successful passes in the final third.

One player who missed the match due to injury was Egypt’s captain Ahmed Elmohamady, who pulled up with a calf strain in the 68th minute. His absence left Egypt’s defense exposed in the final 20 minutes.

How This Draw Affects the Broader World Cup Picture

Egypt’s draw against Belgium sends a clear message: in the expanded 48-team World Cup, no team is safe. Here’s how it fits into the tournament’s bigger picture:

• Defying the odds: Egypt entered the tournament as 140-minute underdogs against Belgium, yet held them to a draw. This mirrors other upsets in the early stages, including Canada’s shock win over Spain.
• Group G’s unpredictability: With three teams now on one point, this group could produce two automatic qualifiers or force a playoff scenario. “It’s wide open,” said FIFA technical director Pierre Leveque.
• Egypt’s historic run continues: This is Egypt’s first World Cup appearance since 1990, and their draw keeps their campaign alive. If they advance past the group stage, they could become the first African team to reach the knockout rounds in this expanded format.

According to FIFA’s tournament projections, only 16 teams will advance from the group stage in this 48-team format. Egypt’s draw means they must now focus on consistency rather than dominance.

What to Watch in Egypt’s Next Match Against Iran

Egypt’s match against Iran on June 19 will be a test of their ability to maintain composure under pressure. Key areas to watch:

• Salah’s form: If Salah scores again, Egypt will be in a strong position. He has been in form leading up to the tournament, scoring 12 goals in his last 10 appearances.
• Defensive organization: Egypt must improve their defensive transitions to avoid late goals like the one against Belgium.
• Set-pieces: Both teams are strong in the air. Egypt’s Trézéguet and Iran’s Mehdi Taremi will be key in this battle.
• Tactical adjustments: Cúper may look to play more defensively if Egypt needs to conserve energy for the New Zealand match.

Iran’s manager, Carlos Queiroz, has emphasized defensive solidity. “We’ll look to control the midfield and punish Egypt on the counter,” he said in a pre-match press conference.