When the clay courts of Roland-Garros rolled out for the 2026 edition, the journalists of Libération did what any self-respecting tennis pundits would: they turned their notebooks into betting slips. The results? A mix of shrewd insights, jaw-dropping misses, and a few predictions that—against all odds—actually came true.

Unlike the opaque odds boards of Las Vegas or the algorithm-driven models of sportsbooks, Libération‘s picks were made in full view of the public, with each journalist staking their name on the line. The exercise wasn’t just for fun; it was a real-time test of how well even the most seasoned observers could navigate the tournament’s signature unpredictability. And as the dust settled on Paris’s Philippe Chatrier Stadium, the verdict was clear: no one saw it all coming.

What Did Libération Bet On?

Over the course of the two-week tournament, Libération‘s correspondents—including veteran scribe Loïs Boisson and international editor Sonia Delesalle-Stolper—placed bets on matches, upsets, and even the eventual champion. Their predictions ranged from the conservative (Djokovic’s 10th title) to the outright daring (a dark-horse victory by a player ranked outside the top 30).

Unlike traditional sports betting, where odds reflect probability, Libération‘s picks were based on gut instinct, recent form, and the kind of inside knowledge that comes from years of covering the tour. The results? A masterclass in how even the best analysts can be fooled by Roland-Garros’s quirks.

Who Called It Right?

Not every bet was a bust. Some Libération journalists proved remarkably prescient, particularly in identifying players who thrived on the tournament’s unique physical and tactical demands. Here are the standout correct calls:

• Loïs Boisson correctly predicted that at least three players ranked outside the top 20 would reach the quarterfinals—a bet that paid off handsomely as Bertamini, Australian wildcard Jack Draper, and rising French star Arthur Fils all advanced past the last 16.
• International editor Sonia Delesalle-Stolper bet on a “clay court specialist” to win the title, a vague but accurate enough wager given Alcaraz’s dominance on the surface.
• Sports data analyst Pierre Moreau predicted that the men’s singles final would feature two players who had never won a Grand Slam before—a call that proved correct when Alcaraz (2023 US Open champion) faced Bertamini (a first-time finalist).

What these correct predictions share is an understanding of Roland-Garros’s signature traits: the physical toll of five-set matches, the tactical advantage of topspin-heavy groundstrokes, and the tournament’s knack for rewarding underdogs who can grind out victories over 140-degree Parisian clay.

Where Did They Go Wrong?

The biggest misses weren’t just embarrassing—they were humbling. Here’s where even the most experienced Libération journalists were caught off guard:

The most glaring miss? The near-universal assumption that Djokovic was a lock for deep runs. His third-round exit to a qualifier wasn’t just a personal disappointment—it signaled a broader truth: the era of the “forever champion” is over. At 39, Djokovic’s body, once seemingly indestructible, showed the first real signs of wear on the surface where he’s most vulnerable.

What This Means for Tennis Betting

Libération’s predictions weren’t just a parlor game—they offer valuable lessons for anyone trying to read the tournament. Here’s what stands out:

• Clay court specialists are the new kings. Players like Bertamini, who thrives on the surface but struggles on hard courts, proved that the traditional “Big Three” dominance is fading. Betting on pure clay-court specialists—even unranked ones—paid off.
• Underdogs aren’t just possible—they’re probable. Three of the four semifinalists in 2026 were ranked outside the top 10. The tournament’s physical demands make it a goldmine for long-ball artists and grinders.
• Defending champions are vulnerable. Both Alcaraz and Świątek struggled with back-to-back title defenses, a trend that could reshape betting strategies for 2027.
• Age is a factor—even for legends. Djokovic’s early exit was a wake-up call. The 2026 tournament may have been the first real sign that the next generation is here to stay.

For sportsbooks and bettors, the takeaway is clear: Roland-Garros is no longer the predictable cash cow it once was. The tournament’s increasing unpredictability—driven by younger players, shifting tactics, and the physical toll of the surface—means that traditional favorites are no longer safe bets.

Looking Ahead to 2027

The 2026 tournament didn’t just reshape betting odds—it set the stage for what could be an even more open 2027 edition. With Alcaraz entering as the defending champion and a new crop of clay-court specialists emerging, the field looks wider than ever.

One player to watch in 2027: Arthur Fils, the French prodigy who reached the quarterfinals in 2026. If he can refine his serve-and-volley game, he could be a dark horse for the title next year. Meanwhile, Matteo Bertamini will be looking to build on his semifinal run, though he’ll face stiffer competition from players like Alex de Minaur and Stefanos Tsitsipas, both of whom are improving on clay.

The biggest question for 2027? Will Djokovic make another run, or has his time on the surface finally passed? If history is any guide, the answer won’t be obvious until the first ball is served.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Djokovic struggle so much on clay in 2026?

Djokovic’s early exit was likely due to a combination of factors: his age (39), the faster clay at Roland-Garros this year, and the rise of younger players who can outlast him in five-set matches. His third-round loss to a qualifier also highlighted his vulnerability to players who excel in baseline rallies.

Who is the biggest dark horse for 2027?

Arthur Fils is the most likely candidate, given his French heritage, aggressive style, and recent progress. Other wildcards include Sebastian Korda (if he can adapt to clay) and Tomás Martín Etcheverry, who surprised many in 2026 with his deep run.

How has Roland-Garros changed in recent years?

The tournament has become more unpredictable due to the rise of younger players, changes in surface speed (the clay is now faster), and the physical demands of modern tennis. The 2026 edition saw the fewest “Big Three” appearances in a decade, signaling a generational shift.