Denver Broncos Preview: Can Payton’s System Fix What Aitken’s Couldn’t?
The Denver Broncos enter the 2024 NFL season with a new coach, a roster in flux, and an AFC West that refuses to yield. Sean Payton’s return to the franchise he built from 2012–2020 arrives with higher stakes than ever: Can his offensive system—once the gold standard—revive a franchise that missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010 under his predecessor?
With Week 1 looming (vs. The Las Vegas Raiders at 4:25 PM MDT / 22:25 UTC on September 5 at Empower Field at Mile High), here’s what Broncos fans need to know about Payton’s first season back, the roster’s biggest question marks, and why the AFC West remains the NFL’s most unpredictable division.
Why Payton’s Return Matters More Than the Record
Sean Payton’s hiring wasn’t just about fixing a 7–10 record under Jason Aitken. It was about identity. The Broncos’ offense under Aitken ranked 29th in points per game (19.3) and 31st in passing yards (216.4) in 2023—numbers that would’ve been unthinkable under Payton’s 2015 Super Bowl-winning scheme.
Payton’s system thrives on pre-snap motion, play-action, and quick-game efficiency. In his first two practices as head coach, he’s already emphasized pre-snap reads and protective schemes to shield a young QB room. But with Bo Nix (2023: 3,666 yards, 20 TDs) and Jarrett Stidham (2023: 3,116 yards, 18 TDs) competing for the job, Payton’s biggest challenge may be which offense to run.
Key Takeaway: Payton’s success hinges on two variables: Can he find a QB who trusts his playbook? And Can the O-line (which lost LT Mike McGlinchey in free agency) protect them?
The 3 Biggest Roster Questions Heading Into 2024
- Quarterback: Nix vs. Stidham isn’t just about stats—it’s about fit. Nix’s 6.8% TD rate (20th in NFL) and 4.8% INT rate (13th) make him the safer bet, but Stidham’s 7.1% TD rate (10th) and 3.9% INT rate (1st) suggest Payton might prefer his poise. Official roster shows both on the 53-man list, but Payton has hinted at a two-QB system—a gamble that could backfire if neither gels.
- Offensive Line: The Broncos lost LT Mike McGlinchey (FA to Detroit) and LG Quinn Groves (injured reserve). Payton’s installed Zacch Pickens (2023: 10 starts) at RG and Ben Powers (rookie) at RT, but the unit’s 68th-ranked pass-block win rate (62.9%) in 2023 is a red flag. Watch: How quickly Payton adapts to a new scheme with limited reps.
- Defensive Identity: Payton’s brought in DC Vance Joseph (former Bills/DC) to mold a unit that ranked 23rd in DVOA (2023). Early signs? More blitzing and edge-rush emphasis, but the secondary—led by Patrick Surtain II (2023: 5 INTs)—must improve to stop elite WRs like Tyreek Hill (Raiders) and Steph Curry (49ers).
The AFC West: Why This Division is the NFL’s Wild Card
The Broncos face the most competitive schedule in football, with three of four division foes ranked in the top 10 by NFL projections:
| Team | 2023 Record | Key Player Watch | Broncos vs. Them (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 11–6 | QB Jimmy Garoppolo (3,900+ yards), WR Tyreek Hill (1,544 yards) | L 24–27 (Week 17) |
| Chargers | 12–5 | QB Drew Lock (3,723 yards), DE Joey Swartz (11 sacks) | L 20–23 (Week 16) |
| Chiefs | 14–3 | QB Patrick Mahomes (4,653 yards), LB Anthony Harrison (10 sacks) | L 20–38 (Week 14) |
| Broncos | 7–10 | QB Bo Nix/Jarrett Stidham, CB Patrick Surtain II | — |
Why it matters: The AFC West is the only division where all four teams are projected to finish within 3.5 games of each other. A .500 Broncos team could still finish 3rd—if they avoid collapses against Mahomes or Lock.
3 Things to Watch in Denver vs. Las Vegas (Week 1)
- Payton’s QB Competition: Will Nix or Stidham start? Payton has said he’s “evaluating both” in practice, but leaks suggest Nix may get the nod to open the season. Watch: How quickly Payton’s offense clicks—Raiders CB Keisean Allen (2023: 6 INTs) will target the QB early.
- O-Line vs. Raiders’ Edge Rush: LV’s Maxx Crosby (11 sacks) and Malik Hamm (9.5 sacks) will test Denver’s new OL. Payton’s installed double-team blocks in practice—can they hold up?
- Defensive Adjustments: The Broncos’ pass rush (led by Bradley Chubb) must improve to stop Garoppolo. If they can’t, the Raiders’ 12th-ranked red-zone offense will exploit Denver’s 30th-ranked secondary.
Broncos 2024 Schedule: Key Dates and Challenges
Denver’s season kicks off with a home-and-home against the Raiders (Week 1 at home, Week 17 away). Other early tests:
- Week 2 (Sept 12): @ Buffalo Bills (1–0 vs. AFC East champ)
- Week 4 (Sept 26): vs. San Francisco 49ers (Steph Curry’s first game as QB)
- Week 8 (Nov 3): @ Kansas City Chiefs (Mahomes + Harrison)
- Week 14 (Dec 12): vs. Chargers (Lock’s first home game)
Next Checkpoint: Week 1 preview (Sept 5, 4:25 PM MDT) and Media Day (Aug 14) for final roster cuts.
FAQ: Broncos 2024 Season
Will Sean Payton’s offense work with Bo Nix or Jarrett Stidham?
Payton’s system thrives on pre-snap motion and play-action, which suits Nix’s intermediate-throw game better than Stidham’s deep-ball accuracy. However, Stidham’s higher TD rate (7.1% vs. Nix’s 6.8%) could make him the long-term fit if Payton values downfield efficiency.
How bad is Denver’s offensive line?
Very. The Broncos ranked 31st in pass-block win rate (57.3%) in 2023 and lost LT Mike McGlinchey (a Pro Bowler) in free agency. Payton’s installed Zacch Pickens (RG) and rookie Ben Powers (RT), but injuries to LG Quinn Groves and C Ben Powers add risk. Expect early struggles against edge rushers.
Can the Broncos compete in the AFC West?
Only if they win 3+ of their 4 division games. The Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs are all projected top-10 teams, and Denver’s 7–10 record suggests they’ll need at least 10 wins to avoid another playoff miss. Realistically, a .500 season is the ceiling unless Payton’s system clicks immediately.
Next Up: Follow the Broncos’ full 2024 schedule and training camp updates. When will Payton name his starting QB? We’ll have live coverage from Empower Field on September 5.
What do you think: Can Payton turn this team around in Year 1? Share your predictions in the comments.
