From World Cup Contenders to Qualifier Outcasts

Italy’s footballing identity has been built on defensive solidity and tactical pragmatism. But those qualities have failed to translate in recent years. The national team’s collapse in the 2022 World Cup—where they were eliminated in the round of 16 by England—exposed deep-seated problems.

What followed was a string of poor results in Euro 2024 qualifiers, culminating in their failure to qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. This season’s qualifying campaign has been even worse: Italy finished third in their group, behind both Serbia and Lithuania, earning just three points from six games.

Baldini, appointed as interim coach in November 2023 following Luciano Spalletti’s departure, inherited a team with no clear identity. His solution? Start from scratch.

The Squad: Who Are These Unproven Talents?

Baldini’s 23-man squad includes only three players with more than 10 caps: Davide Calabria (22, AC Milan), Federico Dimarco (21, Inter Milan), and Gianluigi Donnarumma (25, Paris Saint-Germain). The rest are either debutants or players with fewer than five caps.

The most high-profile names include:

• Niccolò Fagioli (20): Dortmund midfielder, Italy U21 captain, and the squad’s most experienced player with 12 caps.
• Gianluca Scamacca (20): Atalanta forward, called up for the first time after scoring 12 goals in Serie A this season.
• Davide Frattesi (21): Roma winger, known for his pace and direct style, with 10 caps.
• Matteo Retegui (20): Juventus defender, a standout in the Champions League this season.

What unites them? All were developed in Italy’s youth system but failed to break into senior teams until recently. Baldini’s bet is that their raw talent, combined with the pressure of representing Italy, will force them to develop quickly.

Tactical Approach: A High-Risk, High-Reward System

Baldini has outlined a 4-3-3 formation with fluid transitions, emphasizing pressing and quick counterattacks. The midfield trio—expected to feature Fagioli, Scamacca, and Frattesi—will be the engine of the team.

Key tactical challenges:

• Defensive fragility: Italy’s defense has been exposed in recent years, with only three defenders (Matteo Retegui, Gianluca Mancini, and Davide Zappacosta) in the squad having regular first-team experience.
• Set-piece vulnerability: Italy’s free-kick and corner defenses have been exploited in recent matches, a critical weakness against physical teams like England.
• Physicality gap: The squad lacks the aerial dominance and ball-winning presence of Italy’s traditional defenders.

Baldini’s response? “We will play with intensity and speed,” he told reporters. “These players are young, but they have the hunger to prove themselves. If People can control the tempo of the game, we can create chances.”

The Schedule: Make or Break Qualifiers

Italy’s next two matches are critical for their Euro 2024 hopes:

North Macedonia, managed by Igor Angelovski, will be Italy’s first test. The Macedonians have improved under Angelovski, finishing fourth in their Euro 2024 qualifying group, but lack the defensive structure to trouble Italy if Baldini’s youngsters can control possession.

The real acid test comes against England, who have dominated Italy in recent years. The Three Lions beat the Azzurri 1-0 in the 2022 World Cup round of 16 and won 2-1 in a friendly in November 2023. Italy’s inability to defend against England’s set-pieces and counterattacks has been a recurring theme.

The Bigger Picture: Italy’s Development Crisis

Baldini’s youth-focused approach isn’t just about these two matches. It’s a statement about Italy’s footballing future. The country that once produced legends like Paolo Maldini, Roberto Baggio, and Francesco Totti now struggles to develop world-class talent.

Key issues:

• Lack of domestic competition: Serie A’s financial disparities mean top clubs hoard resources, leaving smaller clubs unable to compete for youth talent.
• Over-reliance on foreign players: In Serie A’s 2023/24 season, only 28% of players were Italian, per Serie A’s official report.
• Youth academy failures: Italy’s U21 team, once a breeding ground for stars, has struggled in recent Euros, failing to qualify for the 2023 tournament.

“The problem isn’t just tactical,” said FIGC Technical Director Massimo Pecchia in a recent interview. “It’s systemic. We need to invest in youth development, create better pathways, and give young players more game time.”

Baldini’s experiment could be a turning point—or a cautionary tale. If it fails, Italy risks losing another generation of fans to disillusionment. If it succeeds, it could signal a renaissance for Italian football.

What’s Next: The Road Ahead

Italy’s immediate focus is on the next two qualifiers. Beyond that, the roadmap is unclear:

• Euro 2024: If Italy qualifies, Baldini’s squad will face a grueling tournament in Germany, with matches against Turkey, Georgia, and Romania in Group A.
• Coaching future: Baldini’s interim contract expires after Euro 2024. Potential successors include Roberto Mancini (current Italy U21 coach) and Luciano Spalletti (former Italy senior coach).
• Long-term development: FIGC has announced a €50 million investment in youth academies, but results will take years to materialize.

For now, the focus is on the next two matches. Italy’s fans, weary of disappointment, will be watching closely to see if Baldini’s gamble pays off—or if another generation of talent is lost to complacency.