As Peru heads towards a pivotal presidential election, scrutiny of candidate claims is paramount. Recently, Jorge Nieto, representing the Partido del Buen Gobierno, stated that over 300,000 Peruvians died as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This claim, made during a March 2nd interview with YouTuber Carlos León Moya, has been challenged by fact-checkers and official data. While Peru experienced a devastatingly high death rate relative to its population, the actual number of confirmed COVID-19 related deaths falls significantly short of Nieto’s figure.
The Claim and the Context
During his appearance on Moya’s YouTube stream, Nieto criticized the handling of the pandemic by former President Martín Vizcarra, arguing that his policies led to a tragic outcome. He specifically stated, “But he, well, chose another path. That’s why things went as they did. More than 300,000 deaths and the highest number of deaths per million inhabitants.” This statement sparked immediate debate, prompting PeruCheck to investigate the accuracy of the reported death toll.
Official Data Reveals a Lower Number
According to data from the Peruvian Ministry of Health, as of March 5, 2026, the confirmed number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 stands at 220,918. This figure is corroborated by independent analyses, including reports from La República Data. Confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Peru have reached 4.5 million. The government’s Coronavirus website, updated as of April 9, 2025, reports 221,093 deaths from a total of 4.5 million confirmed cases. These numbers represent a substantial difference from Nieto’s claim of over 300,000 deaths.
It’s essential to note that Peru undertook a process of “sinceramiento” – a correction and clarification – of its COVID-19 data, acknowledging underreporting issues. However, even after these adjustments, the official figures remain below the 300,000 threshold.
Peru’s High Mortality Rate – A Complicated Picture
While the total number of deaths may be lower than Nieto suggested, Peru undeniably suffered a disproportionately high mortality rate during the pandemic. Data from Datos Macro indicates that Peru registered approximately 6,531 deaths per million inhabitants, the highest rate globally. Bulgaria followed with 6,023 deaths per million, and North Macedonia with 5,482. This grim statistic underscores the severe impact of the pandemic on the Peruvian population.
Datos Macro as well places Peru within the top 10 countries globally for total COVID-19 deaths.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has also recognized Peru as having the highest recorded number of deaths related to the pandemic, as noted by César Munayco, former director of Public Health Surveillance at Peru’s National Center for Epidemiology (CDC).
Nieto’s Justification and the Lancet Study
When contacted by PeruCheck, Nieto explained that his figure of over 300,000 deaths was based on a British global statistic that accounted for potential underreporting. He referenced a 2022 study published in The Lancet, titled ‘Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21.’
The Lancet study utilized the concept of “excess mortality,” which measures the difference between projected deaths for a given year and the actual number of deaths that occurred. The study estimated excess deaths for Peru at an average of 349,000 for the years 2020 and 2021.
However, analysts have questioned the reliability of The Lancet’s figures in the Peruvian context. The calculation would suggest approximately 71,000 non-COVID-19 related deaths per year during 2020 and 2021 – nearly 59,000 fewer than in 2019, before the pandemic. Using Datosmacro as a source, The Lancet’s data would indicate around 87,000 fewer deaths than in 2019, a statistically improbable outcome.
Experts who spoke to La República at the time of the Lancet study’s release cautioned that applying global projections to local contexts can be misleading. César Munayco, then director of the CDC, emphasized that Peru’s figures aligned more closely with the WHO’s calculations.
the WHO estimated an annual excess mortality rate of 437 per 100,000 inhabitants for Peru, translating to an average of 288,420 excess deaths. This figure encompasses deaths directly caused by COVID-19, as well as those linked to the strain on the healthcare system, and remains below Nieto’s stated 300,000.
Conclusion: The Facts on COVID-19 Deaths in Peru
The claim that over 300,000 Peruvians died during the COVID-19 pandemic is false. Official data from the Peruvian government and the Ministry of Health, along with projections from various studies, indicate a figure closer to 221,000. PeruCheck has rated Jorge Nieto’s claim as false.
As the election season progresses, it’s crucial for voters to rely on verified information when evaluating candidates and their platforms. The accuracy of data, particularly regarding a public health crisis of this magnitude, is essential for informed decision-making.
