Since we know the finalists who will face each other in Super Bowl LX, many seem to be of the opinion that the Patriots are going straight to the slaughterhouse to be crippled by the Seahawks. This is not my perception at all.
I rather expect a close duel between these two teams. The argument that often comes up against the Patriots is that they have faced few good clubs and great quarterbacks throughout the season.
It is also said that since the start of the playoffs, the offense has only scored 18 points per game, an anemic average. We say we are convinced that nothing will improve against the voracious defense of the Seahawks.
It is still important to remember that since the start of these same playoffs, the Patriots have got the better of three defenses ranked in the top 5 for points allowed. And that the Patriots defense is playing at an exceptional level.
Mike Vrabel, the head coach of the Patriots, may be making his first appearance at the Super Bowl as a coach, but he is used to these great moments of tension, having won the big game three times with the Patriots as a linebacker in the early 2000s.
This team is oddly reminiscent of the Patriots of 2001, heavily neglected against the powerful Rams. A second-year coach, Bill Belichick, trusted his second-year quarterback, Tom Brady, to cause one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history.
The 2001 Patriots first had to win a playoff duel in the snow to continue their journey, as the 2025 Patriots did in the conference final in Denver, also with their second-year quarterback, Drake Maye.
Can they repeat the same smoking gun they did almost 25 years ago?
When the Seahawks have the ball
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is clearly the most dangerous receiver on the field in this Super Bowl duel. – Photo AFP
The nods to the past are obvious, but in the present moment, the Seahawks are quite the football machine.
Their quarterback Sam Darnold has been the victim of 20 turnovers this season, an unenviable high in the league. That said, he was impeccable in the playoffs, with four touchdown passes and no turnovers to his name.
It’s this version of himself that he must bring to the field against the Patriots, who have forced eight turnovers in the playoffs. The 26 small points that the Pats defense conceded in three playoff games constitute the lowest total since the 16 given by the unforgettable Ravens defense of 2000, in its first three playoff games. This unit is absolutely on fire!
In the last three meetings, the quarterbacks who faced the Patriots have completed only 56 of their 109 passes, with two touchdowns and five interceptions.
Darnold is far from alone, starting with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has established himself as one of the most dominant receivers in the league. The duel against star cornerback Christian Gonzalez will be fascinating.
Running back Kenneth Walker III is also having some good moments this season, but the Patriots have only given up 71 rushing yards per game in the playoffs. Peanuts!
When the Patriots have the ball
Drake Maye and the Patriots aerial attack will have to find their bearings. – Photo AFP
Unlike the defense, the Patriots offense is looking for itself these days. Drake Maye still makes some big plays, mostly with his legs. The air attack will inevitably have to unlock and display more consistency.
Receiver Stefon Diggs will have to be involved, not forgetting Kayshon Boutte. No less than 30% of his receptions during the season crossed 20 yards. On the ground, TreVeyon Henderson scored four touchdowns of 50 yards or more. Such explosive plays will be important.
The solution for Maye will be to be better protected, but it’s far from simple against a defense that managed 71 sacks, including the playoffs. The Seahawks’ defensive front relies on good depth, which allows them to keep fresh forces on the field at all times.
Maye has already conceded 14 sacks in the current series, the second highest total in history, after Joe Burrow’s 19 in 2021.
Who will win?
Ultimately, I don’t think the Patriots will look crazy, but can they pull off the upset? The Seahawks are clearly the most complete team they will have faced.
Quarterbacks aged 24 or younger against defenses led by Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald are 0-6-1 since 2023, with one touchdown pass, eight interceptions and 22 sacks. Maye, at 23, is trying to become the youngest center in history to win the Super Bowl.
This is where the Patriots’ great adventure will end. They will fight valiantly, but will lack the juice to last 12 rounds with the Seahawks. Unless Sam Darnold gives them a few turnovers. Which is not impossible…
- MY PREDICTION: Seahawks 24 Patriots 20
- SERIES PREDICTIONS: 9 in 12 (75%)
- TOTAL THIS SEASON: 178 in 283 (62.9%)
PREDICTIONS FROM OUR EXPERTS
Louis-Philippe Neveu, vice-president of operations, Information and Sports, TVA
The Patriots undoubtedly present the best defense the Seahawks will have faced this season. Strong against the pass, disciplined against the run and capable of generating pressure without compromising its coverage, New England’s defensive unit has allowed fewer than 10 points in two of its three playoff games. The key matchup in this game will undoubtedly be between Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez and Seahawks star receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba. Gonzalez has demonstrated all year long his ability to neutralize top opposing receivers, and he should be able to limit the damage in this crucial duel. This situation will greatly complicate the task of Sam Darnold, who will have to deal with constant pressure exerted by the Patriots’ defensive front. Offensively, Drake Maye will take advantage of this favorable context to have his best game of the playoffs.
Denis Casavant, expert football, TVA Sports
Quarterback Sam Darnold silenced his critics with his performance in the conference final against the Rams. But let’s be honest, there are still some skeptics despite his 30-7 record as starting quarterback over the last two seasons. He can count on the best receiver in the league in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a very good running back in Kenneth Walker. The Seahawks are on a roll, with 9 straight wins and an average of 29 points per game. On the other hand, the “Pats” have one of the best defenses, while they have conceded only four touchdowns in the last five games. The unit that risks having its hands full is the New England tertiary. Especially if we decide to blitz Darnold, because the cornerbacks will have difficulty containing Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed.
Vincent Duquette, director, digital sports content, NumériQ
Masterfully led by Klint Kubiak, the Seahawks attack will not make the same mistake as during Super Bowl XLIX in 2015. It will know how to put the ball in the hands of its best players in the right moments, including the excellent receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, to win the duel. Seattle’s defensive unit, known for putting a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, will also have its say and will be in Drake Maye’s face throughout the game.
Charles-Antoine Sinotte, expert football, TVA Sports
This is the Patriots’ fourth straight playoff game against a top-6 NFL defense. New England benefited from three horrible games from the Chargers, Texans and Broncos offenses, the latter in the storm of the century. This time, the Seahawks will definitely put points on the board and I have great concerns about the ability of the “Pats” to protect second-year quarterback Drake Maye (15 sacks allowed and 6 fumbles since the start of the playoffs). The game will be closer than you might think, but this is the year of Seattle and Sam Darnold. The Seahawks also find a stadium that they know well since they play in the same division as the 49ers.
