NFL Playoffs: Bills & Broncos Losses – Updates & Analysis

Football is a game of strategy, calculations and probability. In fact, it’s a sport in which math matters.


Updated on

The Denver Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills 33-30 on Saturday night to advance to the American Association final. This meeting ended in overtime. Above all, it concluded with a handshake between Bo Nix, displaying a radiant and satisfied smile, and Josh Allen, with a low expression and his toque almost pulled down over his eyes. Obviously, Nix didn’t know at the time that his season was over, the result of a broken ankle.

PHOTO BART YOUNG, ASSOCIATED PRESS

Bo Nix

The Broncos won because this game was to their advantage from a mathematical point of view. They played better than their rivals, although they were more accustomed to these winter meetings. However, the Broncos advance to the next round thanks to a positive and favorable statistical performance.

The Broncos scored more points, caused more turnovers and drew more penalties than their opponents.

During the 60 minutes of regulation play, the Bills suffered four turnovers. Running back James Cook fumbled the ball early in the second quarter. Four minutes later, Broncos tackle Frank Crum caught a seven-yard touchdown pass to give Denver a three-point lead. With two seconds left in the half, Allen lost possession of the ball in his own territory.

Broncos kicker Wil Lutz made a 50-yard field goal: 10 points ahead for the locals. Coming back from intermission, Allen had the ball snatched from his pocket. Thirty-three seconds later, Lutz made another field goal, this time from 33 yards. At the end of the quarter, Allen also threw his first interception of the game.

On the one hand, the Broncos created their own luck and managed to manhandle the Bills when necessary. On the other hand, Buffalo would not have had to go through an overtime period if the team had not given up 13 points to the opponent following turnovers.

A spectacular extension

So much so that both teams forced the 76,125 spectators at Empower Field at Mile High to stay a little longer for an overtime period. The orange men started in possession of the ball.

Five plays and then the ball ended up in the hands of Allen, the reigning NFL MVP. From their seven-yard line, Allen and the Bills offense moved up some of the field. Then, on the ninth play of the sequence, the quarterback attempted to reach Brandin Cooks a considerable distance. On a contested catch, cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian stripped the ball from the receiver.

The fifth turnover of the Bills attack therefore offered Nix and his gang the chance to put an end to it. Which they did. In reality, the Bills shot themselves in the foot. This time, it was the defense that sank the team.

PHOTO RON CHENOY, IMAGN IMAGES

Josh Allen

Cornerbacks Taron Johnson and Tre’Davious White were caught red-handed. Both players obstructed the receiver they were supposed to be guarding. Two penalties costing 47 yards in 47 seconds. Additionally, White was punished for unsportsmanlike conduct after throwing his helmet near an official.

The 23-yard field goal needed to win was therefore child’s play for Lutz.

The lessons

There are several things to remember from this confrontation which kept us in suspense until the last game.

First, the Broncos won by playing to their own strengths. They finished first in the Association thanks to their defensive efficiency. A decisive aspect of the game in this snatch victory.

The team that allowed the fewest touchdowns to its opponents during the season finished the game with two interceptions, three sacks and five forced turnovers. The Bills had possession of the ball 11 minutes more than the Broncos, and yet they came up short.

Then, it was perhaps by wanting to play differently that the Bills lost. They ran, scored three touchdowns and had 449 net yards. However, the use of their tight ends cut into their momentum.

The Bills are known for using their jumbo players to good effect. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are integral parts of the Bills offense. As blockers, they excel. As receivers, they shine. The two players have caught 23% of Allen’s passes this season. Few teams employ their tight ends so judiciously.

In the first half, only Knox was targeted. Just once. And the Bills only scored 10 points. In the second half of the game, tight ends were targeted 10 times. They caught eight passes and Kincaid notably had six of the team’s 20 points.

The Bills were heading for their loss. While the Broncos are heading to the conference final.

PHOTO RJ SANGOSTI, ASSOCIATED PRESS

Josh Allen

Even an hour after the game, Allen was still crying in front of members of the media. We can imagine Nix in a similar state, since the Broncos announced that the pivot fractured his ankle on the penultimate play of overtime. So much so that the season of both quarterbacks in action ended at the same time.

Marcus Cole

Marcus Cole is a senior football analyst at Archysport with over a decade of experience covering the NFL, college football, and international football leagues. A former NCAA Division I player turned journalist, Marcus brings an insider's understanding of the game to every breakdown. His work focuses on tactical analysis, draft evaluations, and in-depth game previews. When he's not breaking down film, Marcus covers the intersection of football culture and the communities it shapes across America.

Categories Nfl

Leave a Comment