New York, 3 Jan. (Adnkronos) – (New York) A few weeks ago Elliott Abrams, one of the old neocon hawks of the republican apparatus, clearly proposed the need for regime change in Venezuela. In a long article in Foreign Affairs Abrams, who is now an analyst for the Council on Foreign Relations, was very harsh with Donald Trump, whose envoy he was for Venezuela during his first presidency. “After so many shows of strength and muscular naval displays directed against Maduro, they may end up leaving him in power. In this scenario, Maduro would emerge as the survivor who got the better of Trump, demonstrating that American influence in the Western Hemisphere is, at best, limited.”
The warning seems to have been heeded by Trump who within his administration has another historic supporter of regime change in Venezuela: the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
More generally, Trump’s operation in Venezuela has made the wish of all the Republican hawks, who have long been calling for regime change in the country, come true. In addition to loathing South America’s socialist regime, they think “the collapse is an opportunity to galvanize conservative Hispanic voters in the United States,” writes Andrew Gawthorpe of Leiden University. But many analysts have long maintained that Rubio’s true dream is to destroy the Cuban regime and create a democracy on the island: the secretary of state is the son of Cuban immigrants.
“This situation goes beyond Venezuela: Cuba could now collapse too,” said Victoria Coates, vice president of the Heritage Foundation and former deputy national security adviser under the Trump administration, speaking on Fox News. And in fact now Cuba will see a total blockade of oil and energy supplies, which is already leading to a strong internal crisis given the historic collaboration between the two countries. “We want to be surrounded by safe countries. And this is clearly an America first strategy,” Trump said, referring to his interest in South America.
The recent operation in Venezuela relaunches a historical line of American foreign policy: the Monroe Doctrine, enunciated in 1823, which excludes the presence of external powers in the Americas. Trump referred to the idea of regional security as a priority, underlining the importance for the United States to control what happens on the continent. In this context, the military action in Venezuela is not just an isolated case, but is part of a broader strategic vision that also concerns Cuba and the growing role of China and Russia in Latin America.
“I believe Russia has other problems, we are ready to do business with everyone else. To sell Venezuelan oil,” Trump said, speaking to the press from Mar-a-Lago without mentioning China which recently said it had commercial interests in the region and did not want to withdraw.
US military interventions rarely start with a clear plan to build a new political order in the affected countries. Often the idea of accompanying the transition arises only when it becomes clear that military force alone is not enough to guarantee stability. It happened in Afghanistan, where an operation initially conceived as a response to the September 11 attacks turned into a long reconstruction mission lasting twenty years. In Iraq, a quick intervention to overthrow Saddam Hussein was expected, but the American presence continued for almost a decade.
The same thing happened in Libya after NATO’s 2011 intervention in a US-led operation to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi’s regime. Even in the case of Venezuela, Maduro’s possible exit raises doubts about the future: although Trump has said that from today the country “will be led by the United States until there is a new stable government”, it is not clear how long this period of “transition” will last.
If for Rubio and for hundreds of Cuban citizens who emigrated to the United States the end of the Castro regime is a dream, for Trump the days of the regime could be numbered: “Cuba is an interesting case. Things are not going well there, they are going through a difficult moment and I believe that, at a certain point, we will start to deal with Cuba too. The situation is very similar to that of Venezuela: we want to help the Cuban people”, said Trump during a press conference, in which Rubio also spoke: “Today Cuba it’s a disaster, led by incompetent people. The economy is in complete collapse. For years they supported Maduro, even on the security front: in some cases, the Cuban apparatus offered direct support to the Venezuelan regime.” (by Angelo Paura)
