Patrick EVERSON
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
When it comes to sports betting, you never really know when a team might start a good streak. And the moment the streak becomes recognizable, bettors might think the law of averages – a regression to the mean – has to happen, making them reluctant to jump on board.
So, in some cases, you have to be seriously convinced before everyone joins.
This has apparently been the case with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. With Burrow under center, the Bengals have practically become an ATM for bettors. But it took time for the bookmakers to feel the pinch.
Can Joe Burrow catch Patrick Mahomes in the NFL MVP race?
The team wonders if Joe Burrow can catch Patrick Mahomes in the NFL MVP race and talk all things Bengals and Chiefs.
make bank
It all started late in the 2021-22 regular season. Burrow led Cincy on a straight run 3-0 (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Then he capped that off with a big 34-31 home win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17. It was a game in which the Bengals were 3.5-point underdogs.
Burrow did not start Week 18 as the Bengals rested several key playoff players. For what it’s worth, however, Cincinnati was a 6.5-point underdog at Cleveland and still covered in a 21-16 loss. Then Burrow & Co. went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the playoffs as they reached the Super Bowl. They lost the Big Game to the Rams 23-20, but covered as 4.5-point underdogs.
Then this season the Bengals started 0-2 SU and ATS. So maybe the thought was that the regression had arrived. Since then, however, Cincy has gone 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS. Still, it didn’t cost BetMGM much until recently.
“The Bengals were our worst result [last] Saturday at Foxborough,” BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott said, referring to Cincinnati’s 22-18 win as three-point favorites in New England. “This continues the losing book pattern on Cincy games over the past month.”
It was therefore at the end of November that more public or recreational bettors finally started to buy. Even then, after the Bengals’ 20-16 win where they scored a run at Tennessee, Burrow was on a 15-3 ATS streak.
A month later, he’s 19-3 ATS, with four more covers on a current 7-0 ATS streak. At the standard price of -110 on point spread bets ($110 bet net of $100 profit), if you bet $110 on each of those 22 games, you’ll win $1,570. Not too bad.
But maintaining that streak through week 17 will be a hassle. The Bengals host the Buffalo Bills on Monday night and are currently the one-point underdogs. A sharp Vegas bettor thinks the Bills are on the safe side.
“Joe Burrow struggles with teams that can rush, and Buffalo is right at the top of that list,” he said. “And La’el Collins’ injury is huge.”
Collins, Cincy’s right tackle, tore his ACL and MCL in last week’s win at New England.
Joe Cool as MVP
Cincinnati shook off the 0-2 SU and ATS start this season to now sit at 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS. The Bengals still have a chance to qualify for the AFC No. 1 seed, but must beat Buffalo on Monday night to stay in that race.
The win could also give Burrow a late boost in the NFL MVP ratings market. Burrow is currently the +700 second choice at FOX Bet, but that puts him far behind the prohibitive favorite. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is out -500. And this week, Mahomes is playing at home against a shaken Denver Broncos team that just fired its coach.
But if Burrow totally lights up the box score in a win over Buffalo and the Broncos smother Mahomes, then maybe it gets more interesting.
“A prime-time win over fellow MVP candidate Josh Allen will virtually wipe out Allen’s chances,” said Dylan Brossman, senior director of business operations at FOX Bet. “Whether [Eagles QB] Jalen Hurts is unable to play in Week 17 and Mahomes lays an unexpected egg against Denver, Burrow’s chances could edge closer to a corner-flip entering the final week.
However, Brossman reminds us that Mahomes is a perfect 10-0 SU against the Broncos.
With all of that in mind, bettors would definitely like Burrow to find a way to win the MVP trophy. FOX Bet had Terrier +1300 in July and Oct. 11, bettors could have gotten the Bengals QB at +3400. Since then, as noted above, Burrow has moved to +700.
But bettors have never really trusted Burrow, who is eighth in tickets and seventh in money at FOX Bet.
“Our biggest responsibility for MVP, unsurprisingly, is Jalen Hurts,” Brossman said. “Burrow would be a good result for us.
At BetMGM, Burrow opened +1200 and is currently +600, the second choice behind -500 Mahomes. Still, Burrow is only seventh in tickets and cash on BetMGM’s NFL MVP odds market.
Mahomes and Allen are apparently at an impasse atop the ticket count. But Mahomes is solidly No. 1 in money, followed by Allen. Hurts is third in tickets and cash.
To put it into perspective, BetMGM MVP bettors bet nine times more money on Mahomes, 6.5 times more money on Allen and 5.5 times more money on Hurts than on Burrow.
Burrow is a winner for the book, no doubt.
“We would be very happy to see Joe Burrow crowned MVP,” Scott said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He is based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in the 110 degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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