Catalonia faces potentially unmanageable political divisions at the midpoint of its legislative term, according to a voter survey published by La Vanguardia. The poll highlights a sharp rise in support for both Aliança Catalana and Vox, complicating parliamentary arithmetic and leaving political parties with a narrow, polarized set of governing pathways.
Ipsos Polling Data Highlights Parliamentary Fractures
The survey, conducted by the polling firm Ipsos, indicates that current voting trends could render the regional parliament difficult to govern without deep compromises. According to projections cited by La Vanguardia, three distinct majority coalitions are mathematically possible, though each would require parties to break longstanding vetoes that have defined Catalan politics in recent years.
The first option is an independence-focused majority totaling 72 seats when combining Aliança Catalana, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), Junts per Catalunya, and the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), or 69 seats if the CUP is excluded from the tally. The second scenario involves a right-of-center bloc uniting Aliança Catalana, Vox, Junts, and the Partido Popular (PP), which climbs to 75 seats.
A third alternative, described by an Ipsos executive as an orderly tripartite,
brings together the Socialists’ Party of Catalonia (PSC), ERC, and Junts to reach 69 seats.
The Central Dilemma Facing Junts
Despite projected losses that could see Junts drop more than half of its current parliamentary seats, the party remains a necessary component in all three mathematical combinations outlined in the survey.
Accepting a junior, subordinate position in a right-wing bloc alongside far-right formations could push the party toward political marginalization.
