NFL Urges Supreme Court to Let States Regulate Prediction Markets

The National Football League filed an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to confirm that states hold the constitutional power to regulate sports prediction market contracts as forms of gambling, entering a high-stakes legal dispute between New Jersey regulators and prediction platform Kalshi.

Federal Oversight Versus State Police Powers

The NFL’s legal filing contends that sports prediction contracts function as gambling products rather than financial swaps assigned exclusively to federal supervision under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to reporting by CNBC, the league’s brief challenges the jurisdictional boundaries claimed by federal regulators and prediction exchanges alike. It is well established, however, that la réglementation des jeux de hasard fait partie des pouvoirs de police souverains des États (the regulation of gambling is part of the sovereign police powers of states), the brief states, questioning what constitutional authority allows Congress to override traditional state authority over intrastate wagering.

This filing lands at the Supreme Court amid a direct split between federal appellate courts. The Ninth Circuit ruled in August that states possess full authority to enforce gambling laws against sports prediction platforms, determining that Kalshi’s event contracts constitute sports betting rather than federally regulated swaps. That decision conflicts directly with a Third Circuit ruling that sided with prediction markets by blocking New Jersey’s attempt to enforce its state gambling statutes against the platforms.

NFL Urges Supreme Court to Let States Regulate Prediction Markets

NFL Cites Massive Trading Volumes to Urge State Oversight

To illustrate the commercial gravity of the dispute, the league pointed to massive trading volumes on prediction platforms tied to professional football. The NFL cited data showing that football represented $1.8 billion in trading activity during the opening Sunday of the season, accounting for more than half of the platform’s total volume on that single day, CNBC reported. While the league noted it does not oppose prediction markets in principle, it argues that state regulators are far better equipped than the resource-constrained CFTC to oversee them.

The filing highlights several contract categories the league considers particularly vulnerable to inside manipulation, including wagers on specific plays, fumbles, injuries, and officiating decisions. The organization contends that individuals possessing confidential team data could exploit these markets for unfair financial gain. Consequently, the league has pushed prediction platforms to eliminate these specific contract types entirely and raise their minimum user age from 18 to 21, matching the standard required across most state-regulated sports betting frameworks. Ni la CFTC ni les entreprises de marché de prédiction elles-mêmes — malgré notre insistance persistante — n’ont interdit les catégories de paris susceptibles de manipulation ni fixé une limite d’âge à 21 ans (Neither the CFTC nor the prediction market companies themselves—despite our persistent urging—have banned manipulable betting categories or set an age limit of 21), the NFL said in a statement reported by CNBC.

NFL tells Supreme Court prediction markets are gambling

Diverging Commercial Strategies Across Major Sports Leagues

While the NFL has kept prediction platforms entirely off its broadcasts and refused commercial partnerships, rival sports leagues have taken distinctly different financial paths. Commissioner Roger Goodell outlined the league’s cautious posture during a September interview, emphasizing a strategy centered on patience and legal certainty rather than immediate revenue. Nous ne pensons pas devoir être les premiers dans ce domaine. Nous pensons que nous serons dans le droit chemin, et la meilleure chose à faire est d’être patient (We do not think we have to be first in this area. We think we will be on the right path, and the best thing to do is be patient), Goodell told CNBC.

In contrast, other major professional sports organizations have embraced commercial alignments with prediction exchanges. The National Hockey League has established partnerships with both Kalshi and Polymarket, while Major League Soccer, Major League Baseball, and the Ultimate Fighting Championship have each signed formal agreements with Polymarket.