Kalshi Nominal Trading Volume Reaches Record Highs on Parlay Bets
Prediction market platform Kalshi recorded back-to-back record-shattering daily nominal trading volumes over the weekend, driven largely by multi-leg parlay contracts known as Combos, according to data cited by Bitcoin News.
Combos Drive Weekend Volume Surge
The record-breaking volume figures were propelled primarily by Combos, which allow users to bundle multiple outcomes together into a single prediction market contract. Bitcoin News reported that Combos accounted for $2.8 billion, or 71.6%, of Saturday’s trading volume, and 27억 5천만 달러, or 69.4%, of Sunday’s volume. These multi-leg contracts also accounted for the vast majority of the week-over-week volume increase. Saturday’s total volume jumped by $459 million compared to October 3, with Combos contributing $400 million of that growth. Sunday’s total volume rose by $279 million over October 4, with Combos generating $218 million of the increase.
Low-Cost Out-of-the-Money Parlays Dominate Activity
A significant portion of the Combo trading volume stemmed from out-of-the-money parlays where the “Yes” side had never traded above 1 cent on the respective date. Bitcoin News noted that out of Saturday’s $2.8 billion in Combo contracts, approximately $1.9 billion consisted of contracts where “Yes” shares traded below 1 cent. On Sunday, roughly $1.6 billion out of 27억 5천만 달러 followed the same pattern. In these transactions, parlay buyers paid a fraction of a cent per contract while counterparties shouldered the remaining risk up to the $1-per-contract payout.
Bitcoin Markets and Incentive Program Changes
Outside of sports and Combo markets, Kalshi’s 15-minute Bitcoin markets saw heavy activity, pulling in $229 million on Saturday and $234 million on Sunday, marking the highest figures for any non-Combo series outside of college football and NFL game markets. Concurrently, filings submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on September 28 show Kalshi plans to terminate its volume incentive program ahead of its scheduled October 1, 2027, end date, with the program concluding prior to October 13. The termination timing follows an August warning from CFTC staff advisory panels regarding volume-based rewards potentially incentivizing wash trading.
Worth a look
