Buffalo Bills defense ranks 28th in EPA per play, analysts say

The Buffalo Bills enter a high-stakes Monday Night Football matchup against the Los Angeles Rams boasting a 3-1 record and the NFL’s top-scoring offense, averaging 31.8 points per game. Yet persistent defensive vulnerabilities have forced quarterback Josh Allen and his unit into a weekly shootout, making it unclear if the team can contend for a Super Bowl title with a defense ranking 28th in expected points added (EPA) per play.

Josh Allen and the Bills Offense Mask Defensive Flaws

Buffalo’s offensive output remains the engine behind the team’s early-season success, generating 2.95 points per possession according to official league data. Josh Allen has thrown for 1,039 yards and six touchdowns through four weeks, while running back James Cook has added 421 rushing yards on a 6-yard per-carry average. This remarkable efficiency has allowed the Bills to survive defensive lapses, including victories where they surrendered 31 points to the Houston Texans and 41 points to the Detroit Lions.

However, that scoring pace has cooled slightly from an opening burst of 3.67 points per possession down to 2.27 points per series against the Los Angeles Chargers and the New England Patriots. Analysts point out that expecting Allen to manufacture more than 30 points every single week is an unsustainable blueprint for a deep playoff run.

Buffalo Cornerbacks Surrender High Passer Ratings

The primary source of concern sits within a secondary that ranks 27th in the NFL against the pass. According to coverage data compiled by Sharp Football Analysis, Buffalo’s four primary cornerbacks have all surrendered a passer rating over 100 when targeted this season. Hairston conceded two touchdowns on four receptions against New England.

Opposing playmakers have repeatedly exploited these matchups.

Jim Leonhard’s aggressive 3-4 scheme, installed following the departure of Sean McDermott, relies heavily on blitz packages and pre-snap movement. But coordination between the pass rush and the backend has lagged. While Gregory Rousseau, Bradley Chubb, and rookie T.J. Parker have combined for 10 sacks—good for eighth in the league—the pressure often arrives a fraction of second too late to bail out struggling cornerbacks.

Matthew Stafford and the Rams Present a Major Test

The upcoming clash at SoFi Stadium offers a stern evaluation of Buffalo’s defensive improvements. Kickoff is scheduled for Monday night, October 12, 2026, at 2:15 AM Portuguese time, with live coverage available on NFL Game Pass via DAZN. The Los Angeles Rams field the NFL’s second-best passing attack, led by quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has compiled 1,189 passing yards through four games.

The Bills will also need to account for wideout Puka Nacua, returning from a 125-yard performance against Philadelphia, and running back Kyren Williams in the passing game. Sean McVay’s offense will test whether Jim Leonhard’s unit can maintain discipline after the snap.

Can a Porous Defense Win a Championship?

Historical precedent shows that elite defense is not an absolute prerequisite for hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The 2011 New York Giants ranked 25th in regular-season points allowed, the 2006 Indianapolis Colts ranked 23rd, and the 2009 New Orleans Saints ranked 20th before winning their respective titles. Each of those champions, however, managed to manufacture turnovers that swung the momentum or timely pass-rush surges in January.

By contrast, Buffalo’s defense has generated only two interceptions and a minus-two turnover differential. Since 2020, the Bills have surrendered 199 points in postseason losses—the most of any franchise over that span, according to Sharp Football Analysis. Whether Jim Leonhard can tighten the communication in his secondary before the winter months will dictate if Josh Allen finally reaches the Super Bowl.