Sixty-eight percent of Jewish Israelis identify the October 7, 2023, attacks as a central factor in their upcoming vote, according to a September poll by the Israel Democracy Institute. As Israel enters an election campaign for the first time since the assault that left 1,200 dead and 251 hostages taken to Gaza, politics once again turns squarely around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The vote, scheduled for October 27, arrives after three years of war spanning fronts from Gaza and Lebanon to Iran, Syria, and Yemen.
Security Claims and Disputed Accountability
Netanyahu anchors his campaign discourse in national security, pointing to military operations against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran as proof of Israeli strength. During the third anniversary of the October 7 attacks, the prime minister warned that Hamas might attempt another strike to influence the election outcome. “Israel is the country most strong in the Middle East and our enemies are weaker than ever,” Netanyahu said during a cabinet meeting ahead of the anniversary. “I say to all our enemies: look what we have done to you on seven fronts. Don’t mess with us.”
For supporters, the messaging reinforces his long-standing political identity as “Mr. Security.” For adversaries, however, the security portfolio represents a major vulnerability due to the failures surrounding the 2023 attack, which occurred under his administration without a state commission of inquiry yet establishing formal responsibility. Despite promises of “total victory,” Hamas maintains a presence in the Gaza Strip.
Political scrutiny over the morning of the attacks intensified following reports that the United Arab Emirates and Egypt warned Israel beforehand. Avi Gil, Netanyahu’s former military secretary, stated in an interview with Israel’s Channel 12 that security officials repeatedly warned of escalating risks and suggested the government prioritized coalition survival over a hostage release agreement that might have saved lives.
Parliamentary Fragmentation in the Latest Polls
Polling data indicates a deeply fragmented electorate ahead of the October vote. A survey published by the Israeli outlet Zman Yisrael projects 24 seats for Yair Eisenkot’s party, Yaxar, and 20 seats for Netanyahu’s Likud party. Under that poll’s projections, the anti-Netanyahu opposition bloc would secure 55 seats compared to 51 seats for Netanyahu’s governing coalition partners, with Arab parties capturing 14 seats.
Channel 13 published a contrasting poll showing Yaxar and Likud tied at 20 seats each, with Netanyahu’s bloc reaching 55 seats, the opposition at 50, and Arab factions holding 15. Neither projection reaches the 61-seat majority required in the Israeli parliament, meaning post-election coalition agreements will dictate the formation of the next government.
Rivals, Coalition Shifts, and Foreign Friction
Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, leverages his defense background to challenge Netanyahu directly on national security while appealing to voters disenchanted with the incumbent’s leadership. The wider opposition remains divided. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid formed an alliance under Yachad (Together), while Avigdor Lieberman leads Yisrael Beytenu and Yair Golan heads The Democrats.
Beyond domestic politics, Netanyahu faces a corruption trial that began in May 2020. The campaign also encompasses economic pressures, military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox citizens, and the diplomatic fallout from the ongoing multi-front war. While the United States remains Israel’s primary strategic partner, ties with Donald Trump’s administration experienced friction regarding Iran and post-war Gaza plans. In Europe, diplomatic strain deepened after Canada and eleven European nations—including the United Kingdom, France, and Spain—announced trade restrictions targeting goods produced in Israeli settlements across the West Bank.
Additionally, the Israel Democracy Institute reported that 51 percent of surveyed citizens consider foreign interference in the upcoming electoral process to be highly probable.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the upcoming Israeli election scheduled to take place? Israeli voters go to the polls on October 27, marking the first national election since the October 7, 2023, attacks.
What are the current polling figures for the main parties? Recent polls show tight margins, with Zman Yisrael projecting 24 seats for Gadi Eisenkot’s Yaxar and 20 for Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, while Channel 13 polls show both parties tied at 20 seats each.
How many seats are required to form a majority in parliament? Parties or blocs must secure at least 61 seats in the Israeli parliament to establish a governing majority.
Eighteen Days Until the October 27 Vote
With less than three weeks remaining before ballots are cast, Israel navigates unresolved questions over wartime leadership, ongoing regional conflicts, accountability for intelligence failures, and potential foreign interference in the democratic process.
Worth a look
