The Case For The Phillies Trading for Jean Segura -

The Case For The Phillies Trading for Jean Segura -

Ever since the report that the Mariners were preparing for a fire sale came out, the Mariners have been closely watched by the rest of the baseball world. So far, it has not been as much of a "tear down" as it has been a re-tool. Mike Zunino and James Paxton for major league ready players that have more control. There's a Mariners are already done with the trade market, but there have been rumors surrounding Jean Segura, Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, etc.
Diaz does not make much sense to be dealt with for the Mariners, especially considering he is still young and very controllable. Cano does not have much trade interest. Segura, however, makes a ton of sense to trade. He should have interest from teams. After all, he is 28, productive, defensively versatile, and his contract is very manageable. On the other side of things, if the Mariners are slashing as much payroll as possible and are pushing their timeline back a few years, it's worth it to take a younger return.
The Phillies have been linked to Segura, along with a few other teams. It's unclear just how interested the Phillies are in trading for Segura, especially considering they have just about every major league trade candidate, even Paul Goldschmidt, The 28-year-old shortstop has a place on the team if they were to make a move, for sure. He is 28 and has 5 years of moderately expensive control, which fits well with the Phillies' timeline. The Phillies ranked 27th in WAR at shortstop in 2018 as well, which makes it one of their largest holes. Every time Segura ends up traded (he was traded once before the 2016 season and once before the 2017 season, it seems to be a question of how productive he will really) be.
Jean Segura plays the Phillies need the most, is in his prime, and made the all star team this very recent season. Not only that, but his contract allows a decent amount of team control at a modest price, especially considering his production. If the Phillies are going to compete in 2019, they should definitely be interested in Segura. Among shortstops over the past 3 seasons, Segura has the 3rd highest wRC +, and its defense is widely regarded as acceptable, or average. Although his name is not widely known, Segura truly is one of the better shortstops in the MLB.
The Phillies definitely have a need for shortstop. Scott Kingery is not a true shortstop and was a complete disaster in his rookie season, and JP Crawford is as good as a rookie going into 2019. It's promising too risky to go into a competing season with no other options at the position. Segura represents a clear upgrade. It has been shown to be over 120 games in every season since its MLB call-up, but Segura is projected by Steamer to be worth 2.7 WAR in 2019, and that's even just a modest projection. Recent research has even shown that players who had an improved sprint speed recorded by Statcast were correlated with too modest offensive projections, which could be true with Segura considering its 2018 Sprint Speed ​​which is 0.8 mph higher than in 2017. Not only does this show that his batting projection should be closer to average age in 2017 and 2018, but it does not suggest that Segura is not quite close to a decline yet, despite worries considering his approach to his age-30 season. If they do not properly adjust for this, the Phillies may even have more of a reason to believe they can get a good deal.
It's clear that Segura would have to upgrade to 2019 and help them win games, and despite the unpredictability of aging, it does not seem like it should be too much of a concern for a few years. He fits position-wise for sure, and when you take into account his position versatility and ability to play against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers, he fits even better into a gift Kapler-led ballclub. Additionally, his contact-oriented approach provides a nice balance to what the Phillies currently have in terms of bats, although his different approach could be argued for and against. The fit is clearly there as well. The only other issue is the trade return. Segura was ranked 49th among all players in trade value, James Paxton. The return for Segura will not be, and should not be, light. However, the Phillies can soften the damage by offering one of their shortstops, JP Crawford or Scott Kingery, and one of their AAA pitching prospects that can not be seen in the deep rotation, like Enyel De Los Santos or Ranger Suarez. It does not hurt so bad if you deal with them as headliners. Tampa Bay and New York are ready and controllable prospects in major leagues.
The Phillies and Matt Klentak was able to break down into a 2019 with Crawford and Kingery battling it out for a starting spot in Spring Training. They could also choose to use Manny Machado there. Asdrubal Cabrera or Jed Lowrie to fill the hole. Segura represents another option though, and one with lower risk and high upside to the others (besides Machado of course).

Leave a comment

Send a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.