They simulate 50,000 times with AI who will win the NBA Finals 2023 and there is no doubt

The artificial intelligence (IA) of FiveThirtyEighta portal specialized in projections of results of all kinds, from sports to politics, has given its verdict on which team has the best chance of winning the NBA Finals 2023. Denver Nuggets or Miami Heat? Let’s first understand his methodology for making these predictions.

If in their soccer projections they launch 20,000 different projections taking into account a large number of variables, in the best basketball competition on the planet they are even more exhaustive, making up to 50,000 simulations to get the exact probability of winning the ring for each franchise.

The data analysts of FiveThirtyEight have created their own algorithm to shell NBA basketball, called RAPTOR (Robust Algorithm using Player Tracking and On/Off Ratings), which takes into account factors such as injury history, the importance of the match for each team or the precedents of each player’s performances against the same or similar opponents. They are even considered variables such as the proven fact that veteran players perform much better in playoff games than in regular season games. They are just a few.

Based on the variables of the players, including the uncertainty factors, the results are projected for each game (also taking into account multiple factors) and finally they make 50,000 simulations from which they make a prediction of how the tie for the title will end.

The projection of the results of the NBA Finals 2023, which are updated every day with real data to further adjust the prediction, point to a clear favorite: the Denver Nuggets by Nikola Jokic.

Who will win the 2023 NBA Finals?

AI results and other metrics

According to the RAPTOR model of FiveThirtyEight, the Denver Nuggets have a 73% chance of taking the title in 2023. The Miami Heat, therefore, are left with 27% of the odds. It is not, however, the only model. According to him Elo forecast From the same company, which measures the strength of each team based on head-to-head results, winning margins, and opponent quality, both NBA finalists are much closer than it seems. In this second metric, the Nuggets start with a 57% chance, while the Heat are left with 43%.

In both cases, the home matches for each team can be vital, and those who play in their pavilion in front of their fans always start as favorites. Of course, Denver exceeds the 70% chance of victory at the Ball Arenawhile Miami barely dominates above 50% at the Kaseya Center.

It should be noted that these statistics are by no means infallible. At the beginning of the course, neither the Nuggets nor the Heat entered the Top-5 of teams with more chances of taking the ring according to the same analysis models. They have shown, day after day in these playoffs, that basketball can overcome mathematical logic.


The Nuggets, also favorites in narrative

The media give Denver the winner

Not only the statistics point to the Denver title, which would be the first in its history. The ‘ESPN’ has asked its journalists specialized in the NBA and the result has been a 12-4 in favor of the victory of the Nuggets. Analysts from the same network give only an 11% chance of victory for the Heat… who already had a 3% chance against the Celtics and destroyed all the metrics with their resounding victory in Game 7 in Boston.
​Following a different dynamic, anonymously but speaking with scouts, coaches and executives from other NBA franchises, ‘The Athletic’ reached the same conclusion and gave Denver the unanimous winner. The most chosen option is that of his victory in six games.
There are the data and everyone’s opinion, but Miami has been undervalued in all its qualifiers. And here they are for a reason. It will be a fast-paced NBA Finals 2023, to say the least.

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2023-06-01 09:20:15
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