In the Western Conference, the race for the Playoffs is absolutely crazy. A podium is emerging, made up of the Nuggets, the Grizzlies and the Kings (!?!?!), and at the bottom of the pond the Blazers have joined the Spurs and the Rockets in the race for Victor Wembanyama. But from fourth to twelfth place it’s a real hell and very clever who can predict the final ranking in this Wild Wild West.
That’s what we tried to do by analyzing the calendars of two thirds of the Conference and sorry… it’s not going to please everyone.
The current ranking in the West
The reminder about tie-breakers
Here are the NBA rules for tie-breakers with 2 or 3 tied teams.
Points are listed in order of priority. pic.twitter.com/97h1bTqytg
— TrashTalk (@TrashTalk_fr) May 12, 2021
Everyone’s calendars until the end of the season
Phoenix Suns (41-35)
- vs Nuggets
- @Thunder
- vs Spurs
- vs Nuggets
- @Lakers
- vs Clippers
A very uneven course, with three games against teams that don’t really know the pressure (Nuggets x2, Spurs), two others against teams in the midst of a fight (Lakers, Thunder) and therefore this last regular game against the Clippers , who may decide home-court advantage in a series that sends them against the “other” Los Angeles franchise. Note that the Suns lead 2-1 in their direct confrontations with the Suns this season, a figure which may prove important in the event of a tie between the two teams on April 10 in the morning.
Projection: 5 wins and 1 loss – 46-36 record
Los Angeles Clippers (41-36)
- @ Grizzlies
- @ Pelicans
- vs Lakers
- vs Blazers
- @ Suns
Course quite similar to that of the Suns just above. The Grizzlies and the Blazers could show up not very concerned, the Lakers and the Pelicans are playing their lives and therefore this famous Suns – Clippers of the last evening. The nuance with Phoenix? If the Suns have just recovered Kevin Durant and are gaining momentum, the Clippers are trying to come to terms with the absence of Paul George and seem a little less serene despite a very fit Westbrook and a big advantage in overall experience over their direct competitors.
Projection: 3 wins and 2 losses – 44-38 record
Golden State Warriors (40-37)
- vs Spurs
- @ Nuggets
- vs Thunder
- @ Kings
- @ Blazers
If the Warriors play it seriously, the Top 5 could very well open up for them. A fifth place that would send them into the clutches of the Suns rather than that of the… Grizzlies, choose between plague and cholera. To see what strategy the defending champions will adopt, do they even have the means, but concretely the calendar of Steph Curry and his clerks is rather cool. Spurs, Nuggets, Kings and Blazers are all more or less in break mode or even outright stop, and in the list only the Thunder is likely to play its 48 minutes at full speed. Be careful all the same, this observation could however be contradicted by the difficulties of GS outside this season.
Projection: 4 wins and 1 loss – 44-38 record
Minnesota Timberwolves (39-38)
- vs Lakers
- vs Blazers
- @ Nets
- @ Spurs
- vs Pelicans
Two huge shocks against direct competitors, a trap in Brooklyn (sounds like the title of a movie with Bruce Willis) and two walks against the Blazers and in San Antonio. Wolves’ final place will therefore largely depend on the outcome of their matches against the Lakers tonight and against the Pels on the final night of the season on April 9. The mood is pretty good despite the decent loss to the Suns, the team is complete and the prospect of the Playoffs seems to boost everyone. An end of the season in accelerated mode for the Wolves?
Projection: 4 wins and 1 loss – 43-39 record
New Orleans Pelicans (39-38)
- vs Clippers
- vs Kings
- vs Grizzlies
- vs Knicks
- @ Wolves
The luck of the Pels? An end to the season at home, with the exception of this last game in Minneapolis, which could decide a lot of things in this race for the Playoffs. Obligation for Willie Green’s men to take a maximum of victories at home to avoid a kind of play-in of the play-in on Sunday April 9, and for that the Pels will be able to count on a Brandon Ingram in excellent shape, again author of a crazy perf last night against the Nuggets.
Projection: 3 wins and 2 losses – 42-40 record
Los Angeles Lakers (38-38)
- @ Wolves
- @ Rockets
- @ Jazz
- @ Clippers
- vs Suns
- vs Jazz
Perhaps the team that will be the most scrutinized, normal when you play every night with two future Hall of Famers (Austin Reaves and Dennis Schroder). On the Lakers’ schedule? A huge shock tonight in Minneapolis, three seemingly quieter games against the Rockets and Jazz (x2), and a difficult to negotiate Suns / Clippers combo. The intrinsic talent is immense in LA no matter what we say and under pressure LeBron and AD could flex, anyway they have absolutely no choice. Are we leaving for a “controlled” end of the season?
Projection: 4 wins and 2 losses – 42-40 record
Oklahoma City Thunder (38-39)
- @ Pacers
- vs Suns
- @ Warriors
- @ Jazz
- vs Grizzlies
Just a little more effort ! The Thunder are two or even three wins away from the play-in, and that would be well deserved given Mark Daigneault’s superb youth season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was fantastic and should go for the MIP, Jalen Williams would have been ROY if the season had started in January, we all want to go to war with Luguentz Dort and overall OKC’s participation in the play-in ( or in the Playoffs!) would be the conclusion of a very beautiful story while waiting for the arrival of Chet Holmgren next season.
Projection: 3 wins and 2 losses – 41-41 record
Dallas Mavericks (37-40)
- @ Heat
- @ Hawks
- vs Kings
- vs Bulls
- vs Spurs
Perhaps the most favorable calendar but at the same time… 1) that of the others is not catastrophic either and 2) the mood of the Mavs, it sucks. Dallas will have to take 4 wins out of its last 5 games to take off from this dirty eleventh place but, oddly, it’s hard to believe because something seems broken. The best ? A qualification on the wire for the play-in, why not get out of it and go take a slap in the first round. At worst ? This eleventh place therefore, and a line drawn on a failed season, a year after the conference final against the Warriors.
Projection: 3 wins and 2 losses – 40-42 record
Utah Jazz (36-40)
- @ Celtics
- @ Nets
- vs Lakers
- vs Thunder
- vs Nuggets
- @ Lakers
The song of the Swan. The Jazz have sent very dirty this season, and will finish anyway much higher than the projections at the start of the season. No tanking in Utah, for a long time we even believed in the play-in but with one week to go the end of the season the calendar of Will Hardy’s men seems to mean that the twelfth place in the West is promised to them. And you know what ? That won’t stop us from saying that their season was crazy.
Projection: 2 wins and 4 losses – 38-44 record
Projection finale :
#4 : Suns : 46-36
#5 : Clippers : 44-38
#6 : Warriors : 44-38
#7 : Wolves 43-39
#8 : Lakers : 42-40
#9 : Pelicans : 42-40
#10 : Thunder : 41-41
#11 : Mavs : 40-42
#12 : Jazz : 38-44
Well, all that remains of the projection, of course, but in our imagination here is what the final classification would look like, taking into account the tie-breaker between the Clippers and the Warriors and between the Lakers and the Pelicans. The Suns, Clippers and Warriors in the Playoffs, Wolves vs Lakers and Pelicans – Thunder in the play-in tournament and Mavs and Jazz falling by the wayside… what do you think?
