Football sometimes writes very strange and almost inexplicable stories. In the Bundesliga, for example, Bayer Leverkusen missed seven of their last eight penalties! It was therefore all the more surprising that the Rhinelanders showed no nerves from the point in the second leg of the UEFA Europa League on Thursday evening and, thanks to five goals in five attempts after penalties against AS Monaco, were able to secure their ticket for the round of 16.
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Although the emotional advancement after two grueling matches against the kickers from the Principality has certainly brought some self-confidence, the exhausting 120 minutes including arrival and departure on Sunday in the Bundesliga, of course.
Because coach Xabi Alonso probably has no other option than to spare one or the other top performer, the lower odds are offered between Freiburg and Leverkusen for the tip on the home win. The 2.25 on the success of the sports club implies a 43% probability of occurrence.
Freiburg vs. Leverkusen odds | 3 top tips
Betting odds as of: 02/24/2023, 04:22
The home side’s role as favorites is not only due to the potential tiredness of the guests, but also to the strong home record of coach Christian Streich’s team. Seven of the ten previous Bundesliga matches in front of their own fans have been victorious.
Over and beyond Freiburg also won three of the most recent four direct duels against the Werkself. Should the forecast for the southern Germans come true in the first of two very exciting Sunday games between Freiburg and Leverkusen, they would definitely keep their place in the top four.
Our value tip:
Over 1.5 (1.HZ)
at Bet365 to 2.62
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
While Bayer Leverkusen or Union Berlin had to play in the second round of the Europa League on Thursday evening, the protagonists of SC Freiburg could lean back and relax on the couch at home. Because the Streich-Elf finished the group phase first, they are automatically in the round of 16 and have saved themselves two substantial KO games.
Before the sports club then gets back into action internationally at the beginning of March, the flow in league operations should be maintained. Recently things went pretty well for the people of Breisgau. After just one point from the first two games in the 2023 calendar year the SCF won three of the last four matches in the second half of the season and thus improved again in the classification to fourth place, which, as is well known, would entitle the team to a direct participation in the Champions League after 34 match days.
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Without Günter for the eighth win in the eleventh home game
The previous week made it clear that Vincenzo Grifo and Co. are already in very good shape again. Thanks to the 2-0 win, Freiburg became the first team ever to triumph in the Bundesliga at VfL Bochum with Thomas Letsch on the bench. Apart from that, the Black Forest stayed for the ninth time this season without conceding a goal and are now the sole leader when it comes to clean sheets.
The home record reads at least as impressive, because coach Christian Streich’s team was able to win seven of the ten previous games in the new Europa-Park stadium. No other first division team conceded fewer goals at home as Mark Flekken (eight). Looking at the Freiburg vs. Leverkusen odds, the chances that the fourth-placed team will win a two-leg match against the Rhinelanders for the first time since 1995/96 are not bad at all.
The only downside is that long-running favorite Christian Günter has to miss the weekend. Due to a yellow card suspension, the national player will not be in the Freiburg starting XI for the first time since February 2019 (!). How the last match of the Breisgauer ended without their left-back in the Bundesliga and how many games in a row Günter played from the start can be seen in the new issue “Did you know that…?”.
Expected formation of Freiburg:
Injured and suspended players from Freiburg:
Last matches of Friborg:
Leverkusen – Statistics & Current Form
For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, this season’s UEFA Europa League offers a welcome opportunity to escape the dreary everyday life. Because the Rhinelanders have already bowed out in the DFB Cup and also clearly lagging behind their own demands in the Bundesligathe bottom line disappointing 2023/24 season should be saved by a deep run at international level.
Against this background, it was extremely important that progress could be confirmed on Thursday evening after penalties in Monaco. Coach Xabi Alonso’s team had previously shown a decent away game in the Principality, although fatigue set in as the game progressed and Bayer pushed their necessary luck to the extreme several times, especially towards the end of regular time and in extra time.
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Does a Leverkusen B-Elf have to pay tribute to the hardships?
The reason why we are addressing this encounter in the Stade Louis II in such detail is obvious. Some players who had to walk for many minutes on Thursday will not be used or only partially on Sunday.
For example, it would surprise us if Florian Wirtz, who recently recovered from a cruciate ligament tear, was back in the starting XI. Others too Heavy players could get a break, which is why we don’t necessarily want to take the risk of alluding to the odds of the guest three between Freiburg and Leverkusen. Diaby has less than 90 minutes in the tank after an injury, Schick is also coming from a longer forced break. Adli, Hincapie and Tah have to watch blocked.
From a purely statistical point of view, there are of course also arguments that make the pendulum swing more in the direction of the Breisgauer on Sunday. Bayer lost three of the four previous BL second half games, is generally playing its weakest first division season in 17 years and has suffered more defeats (five) than wins (four) abroad. In addition, there are 19 goals conceded in ten away games and only 14 marked goals, which make the task in the Black Forest even more difficult.
Expected formation of Leverkusen:
Injured and suspended players from Leverkusen:
Last matches of Leverkusen:
Our Freiburg – Leverkusen tip in odds comparison 02/26/2023 – 1/X/2
Betting odds as of: 02/26/2023, 08:54
Freiburg – Leverkusen Direct comparison / H2H balance
We can expect the 46th meeting of these clubs in the Bundesliga. Leverkusen leads the direct comparison with 20 wins. Freiburg prevailed in twelve encounters; in 13 cases a draw would have been the correct choice.
Recently, however, the Werkself had a hard time against Sport-Club. Three of the most recent four direct duels went to the Breisgauer, who also won the spectacular first leg in the BayArena 3-2. Ritsu Doan provided the decisive goal back then. It was also the fifth encounter between these two teams in a row in which at least three goals were scored. It is therefore conceivable to also make a forecast for the over 2.5 between Freiburg and Leverkusen on Sunday.
Statistics highlights for Freiburg versus Leverkusen
Betting Base Prediction & Freiburg – Leverkusen Tipp
The Bundesliga Sunday has it all. From 3:30 p.m. Freiburg wants to take advantage of the favorites in front of their home crowd against Leverkusen according to the betting odds and take another step towards the Champions League group phase 2023/24. Then comes the absolute top game of the 22nd match day between Bayern and Union Berlin.
In the first-mentioned match, the odds on the home three have a very appealing value in our eyes. The sports club, which is strong at home, has not only won three of the last four direct duels against the Werkself and also won three of the four games in the second half of the season, but was also able to prepare perfectly for this home game for a week. Leverkusen have 120 minutes in Monaco and also end the second English week in a row.
- Freiburg won 3 of 4 second half games
- The sports club has 7 wins from 10 home games
- No other team posted 22/23 more clean sheets than SCF
- The 17 Freiburg goals according to standards correspond to the BL best value
- Leverkusen already lost the first leg 2:3
We therefore expect a Xabi Alonso eleven that has changed in many positions, which will also have to do without three potential regulars. Because the priority in the coming weeks will probably be more on the Europa League, we are confident that Freiburg and Leverkusen will Tip on the success of the hosts pays.
At Bet3000 we get a solid 2.25 as the top odds. We choose six units as a stake and also refer to the Bet3000 bonus for new customers. If you could minimize the risk a bit, you can also combine the double chance 1X with the over 1.5 for lower odds. You can find this and other tips for the upcoming BL match day on the Wettbasis YouTube channel.
Freiburg vs. Leverkusen – best odds Bundesliga
Sieg Freiburg: 2.25 @Bet3000
Tie: 3.60 @Bet3000 Sieg Leverkusen: 3.20 @Bet365
Freiburg – Leverkusen – Betting odds * & other interesting bets at a glance:
Over / Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals: 1.80 @Bet365
Under 2.5 goals: 2.00 @Bet365
Both teams score
JA: 1.66 @Bet365
NO: 2.10 @Bet365
Betting odds as of: 02/24/2023, 04:22
