EIn the last time at a football World Cup, the knockout round begins with the round of 16. At the 2026 tournament, when there will be a total of 48 teams instead of the previous 32, there will be another round after the group phase. Then there are even more chances to get eliminated in exciting games. The games this Sunday, however, do not initially promise that much drama. According to the World Cup forecast by Daniel Memmert and Fabian Wunderlich, the roles are fairly clearly divided.
In the first game of the day (4 p.m. CET in the FAZ live ticker for the World Cup, on ZDF and on MagentaTV), the world champion will face Poland. The French qualified first in their group, their opponents second. After all, because in 2018 the end had already come in the preliminary round. The data from the world rankings (4 to 26) and the average market value of the players (42.8 million euros to 9.8) also speaks strongly against the eleven around world footballer Robert Lewandowski. This is also reflected in the forecast, which is based on the values of the betting market. According to this, France wins 75.5 percent after regular time. If there really is more than 90 minutes, which is 7.1 percent likely, the 2018 champion will advance 90.9 percent.
Then (8:00 p.m. CET in the FAZ live ticker for the soccer World Cup, on ZDF and on MagentaTV) it is the turn of the English against Senegal. The Three Lions went far in Russia four and a half years ago but fell in the semifinals and ended up fourth, while the Africans fell in the group stage. In the world rankings (5 to 18) and market values (48.7 to 11.1), everything speaks for Gareth Southgate’s team. However, the probability of a win after 90 minutes is not quite as great as in England, but is “only” 63.6 percent. If it goes into overtime or even penalties, the chances of progressing increase to 83.8 percent.
