Argentina and France with tight World Cup final

Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappe? Kylian Mbappe or Lionel Messi? Lionel Scaloni or Didier Deschamps? Didier Deschamps or Lionel Scaloni? Albiceleste or Les Bleus? Les Bleus or Albiceleste? There are so many questions that still arise at the end of the World Cup, but ultimately they all boil down to one question: who will win the final this Sunday (4:00 p.m. CET in the FAZ live ticker for the World Cup, on ARD and at MagentaTV)?

Tobias Rabe

Responsible editor for Sport Online.

And one thing is already clear beforehand when you look at the data for the World Cup forecast by Daniel Memmert and Fabian Wunderlich: there will be plenty of excitement. A final has never been so close. And even with the calculations for the 63 games before at these finals in Qatar, there was no such even result. The statistical values ​​still show differences. France won the 2018 World Cup, Argentina were eliminated in the round of 16. In the world rankings, however, the South Americans are just ahead (place three to four). When it comes to the average market value of the players, however, the French have higher values ​​(42.8 to 24.3 million euros).

The probabilities based on the values ​​of the betting market are amazing. France wins 34.2 percent, Argentina 34.1 percent. And with a probability of 31.7 percent there will be overtime after 90 minutes plus added time. And then? It doesn’t get any clearer! The French win 50.1 percent, Argentina 49.9 percent. So it’s impossible to pick a favorite because the differences are so minimal.

But there are other calculations by Memmert and Wunderlich for the endgame. The question of how many goals will be scored in regulation time is a bit clearer than the question of who won the game. 61.5 percent only score two or fewer goals in the 90 minutes. The question of who will be named player of the tournament, on the other hand, is answered most clearly: Lionel Messi is 73.2 percent. Kylian Mbappé follows with only 14.6 percent and Antoine Griezmann with 8. Other players are only 4 percent likely.


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