Before the final day of the group stage begins, there are many concerns and few certainties. They sigh with relief France, classified after beating Australia (4-1) and Denmark (2-1); Brazil, with victories over Serbia (2-0) and Switzerland (1-0), and Portugal (Ghana 3-2 and Uruguay 2-0); Canadians and Qataris digest the bitterness of elimination. And there are 27 national teams that will play this last day with the calculator in hand. But the scientific one, because we will have to look at too many formulas: almost all the teams are struggling on the tightrope, with a multitude of possible combinations between goodbye and the eighths.
This World Cup in Qatar is encouraged because all the matches of this third day are final, as if the ko tournament had been brought forward with respect to that December 3 start of the round of 16. And it is not only played in one’s own field but with an eye on the other’s. The last qualifying day begins and betting on the pool of six points for each team is risky.
For translating combinations to the field of play, the case of Spain. An exciting win in the debut against Costa Rica that was marred by the draw against Germany. It wasn’t even a defeat, but it leaves Luis Enrique’s men with everything open for the last game against Japan. The national team can pass with a victory against Hajime Moriyasu’s men, also with a draw and even with a defeat. But it can also be eliminated if the Germans get a win against the Costa Ricans, or they win. And football teaches that in 90 minutes, 100 in this World Cup of infinite extensions, everything fits. Those of Hansi Flick know it, who lost to Japan in the opening game, as well as Messi, who made his debut with a defeat against Saudi Arabia.
At the scale of six points, then, France, Brazil and Portugal have accepted for the moment. The rest is speculation, although with a scientific basis. The best two of each group go to the crosses and in the event of a tie to catch one of those two places, the goal difference will mark the fate of the teams; that is, the subtraction between those marked and those embedded. But with so many 0-0 draws in the first days, five, or the 3-3 that Cameroon and Serbia recorded yesterday, there are options to minimize these differences and have to review more data. There is group C in which barely seven goals have been scored. Hence, England’s 6-2 against Iran or Spain’s 7-0 against Costa Rica are worth gold, since the total number of goals will be the next criterion in the event of a tie.
Today, the Netherlands faces the eliminated Qatar, and they do not want to get lost because Ecuador also has options to climb as first in the group, and even Senegal to qualify. Also in group B Iran and the United States in the confrontation between them, but Wales could also surprise and leave England as second in the group and even out in the event of a tie with the United States. Because it could be that on this last day there would be real wins -remember that 7-1 from Germany to Brazil in a whole semifinal in 2014-, which would lead the teams to review the result among those who had tied everything. Of course, nobody wants to rush so much, much less use the next classification step: the tiebreaker based on ‘fair play’, that is, the cleanliness of the players. One point is subtracted for each yellow card, three points if he has received a red card for a double warning, four for a direct red card, and five for a yellow card plus a red card. Whoever has the best balance will qualify. Ultimately, FIFA will resort to a draw. Today begins everything for everything: eighths or goodbye.
