BarcelonaThe break of selections prolonged the sweet hangover from 0-4 at the Bernabéu. In addition, the historic Barça women’s classic against Real Madrid was the icing on the cake for the Catalans. Two weeks later, Xavi Hernández’s men return to action with a key match against Sevilla (9pm, Movistar La Liga), aware that Madrid have not failed in a very hot match in Vigo. There are two teams in opposite dynamics. While Barça have been adding goals to the good feelings of the game, Sevilla have lost dynamism and their legs have begun to tremble: their second place is in danger.
The phrase “It’s what it is” accompanied Ronald Koeman to the last day. Xavi, already before the transfer market, proved that the Dutchman was wrong. With the strong football pillars and the sum of talent in the winter market, Barça has begun to combine play and results, which do not always go hand in hand. Barça have regained their identity, quite the opposite of Sevilla. “It was a season to continue to evolve the game model, but injuries have broken the evolutionary pace of the Andalusian team,” said David Timón, a league analyst. Julen Lopetegui’s men arrive at the Camp Nou without Fernando, a structural player; the Papu Gómez, Acuña, Delaney, or Suso. Bono and Rafa Mir are in trouble. Diego Carlos, En-Nesyri, Lamela and Jesús Navas have also been out during the season.
“Everyone would have signed for Sevilla to be second at this point in the season. The team is competing very well, but the game they play is boring. It’s not as fun as Betis and that generates anxiety,” said Jesús Márquez, a journalist. of Canal Sur. Sevilla is the team of the five major European leagues with fewer defeats, only two (in Granada and the Bernabeu); he has not been out of the Champions League for six months, and has been in second place in the league since December. “The team has deflated and there has been a painful disappointment,” said Márquez.
No team makes better chances than Barça
Barça have not been able to compete in the league, mainly due to the lack of success in the areas. This is shown by the data. “The expected points determine the results of the matches based on the quality of the goal opportunities,” explains Javier Pérez, an expert in advanced statistics. Thus, the binding classification can be compared to that of the expected points, which indicates whether a team has been above or below what their numbers indicate in the face of goal. According to these records, measured by Understat, Barça added four points less than expected. The good role of Sevilla and Madrid also confirms this statistic. The whites accumulate 10 points more than expected, while the Andalusians add almost 13 more, the best mark in Europe. In other words, Madrid and Sevilla have been much more efficient than Barça this season.
League standings
Based on the expected points, which determine the results of the matches based on the quality of the goal opportunities
The classification of expected points projects that Barça should be the leaders, two points above Madrid. In other words, Barça have generated good enough chances to have won more games and to be at the top of the league. This fact can be translated as a lack of success or simply a lack of talent. Despite this, since the arrival of Xavi, and especially with the new signings, Barça have been improving their goal-scoring performance. He is coming to the rival area collectively, looking for the imbalance of Adama or Dembélé on the right side or with the vertical movements of the interiors and Ferran Torres. But the differential man is being Aubameyang. The Gabonese is in charge of Barça finishing the good game with the goal. He scored one every two shots on goal and sent the ball to the back of the net every hour of the game, the best in that league record. Defensively, Barça have improved on Koeman’s stage, although they are still with negative figures: with Xavi they have conceded one more goal than expected. Ter Stegen has a positive trend: he has increased his stoppage rate to 67%, but he is still far from the best marks in a competition led by Yassine Bono, Sevilla’s goalkeeper, with 80%.
Aubameyang will not be easy against Nervión’s defense. “Diego Carlos is brilliant, even more so than Koundé, because Sevilla feel comfortable defending the area. Lopetegui is being pragmatic, also with the ball, as they try to emotionally control matches with long and sterile possessions,” explains David Timón. Sevilla, like Barça, also strengthened in the winter market. “The club has never wanted to accept, but the significant investment in Anthony Martial and Tecatito Crown was to fight for the league “, says Márquez. Martial, without opportunities at Manchester United, where he arrived in exchange for 60 million euros, has not been able to offer Sevilla neither imbalance nor goal. The Frenchman also was on Barça’s agenda.
Barça, with a game to play, have the opportunity to climb to second place for the time being this Sunday. And to do so at the Camp Nou, where Sevilla have not won for more than a decade. That the goal of the Champions League seems to fall short is the best symptom for Xavi’s team.
