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Growing terrorist threat in 2022: How dangerous are corona deniers and vaccination opponents? – Politics

The security authorities are pessimistic about the new year. The increasing interlinking of corona deniers and vaccination opponents with right-wing extremists and Reich citizens, but also the persistent dangers of Islamist terror and militancy in parts of the left-wing extremist spectrum, are of concern. The Tagesspiegel asked experts who are close to the topics and who do not want to be named for forecasts. The answers are troubling.

The hatred escalates. “The fuse is getting shorter and shorter, even with normal citizens,” says Thuringia’s head of the protection of the constitution, Stephan Kramer. If the pandemic gets worse in the coming year, “even more people will lose their nerves”. Right-wing extremists would drive their anger to extremes to challenge the rule of law even more.

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“With extreme corona deniers and vaccination opponents, we are dealing with hostility towards the state and democracy like the Capitol Tower in the USA,” says a security expert. In January 2021, thousands of President Donald Trump’s supporters, including conspiracy theorists and right-wing extremists, broke into the Capitol in Washington. Five people died. The attack also frightened the German security authorities, especially since corona deniers, right-wing extremists and Reich citizens tried to storm the Reichstag building in Berlin.

The expert warns that measures by the state to combat the pandemic are increasingly being reinterpreted as acts of dictatorship “against which we must defend ourselves”. The agitation would also affect citizens who for whatever reason were dissatisfied with democracy.

And the potential is enormous. On December 20, 150,000 people across Germany took part in 830 events by corona deniers and vaccination opponents – in the alleged tradition of the Monday demonstrations in 1989 in the GDR. Even if not all corona deniers and vaccination opponents are extremists, hostility towards the state and democracy is increasing.

Growing threat of terrorism

Above all, the security authorities fear further attacks on politicians, police and journalists, including attacks. The murder plans of the chat group “Dresden Offline Networking” against Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU) are a warning signal. In the messenger service Telegram, the group had spoken about an attack on him and other politicians.

[Mehr zum Thema: Corona-Proteste in Brandenburg: „Sie versuchen die normale Bevölkerung anzusprechen und zu radikalisieren“ (T+)]

In mid-December, the police searched the homes of members of the chat group and found crossbows and other weapons. Security circles also emphasize that there are other, similarly hateful groups outside of Saxony. And the name “offline networking” is evidently becoming a symbol.

In North Rhine-Westphalia, a group called “NRW Offline Networking” has formed, which also agitates extremely aggressively against the state. According to one expert, the term offline networking could become a logo like “Pegida” once did for racists nationwide.

A security expert warns that the risk of terrorism emanating from the spectrum of violent corona deniers and vaccination opponents is high. The increasing emotionalization, fueled by anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, reinforces the feeling of having to act in radicalized small groups and individuals.

A terrible example is the murder of a gas station attendant in Idar-Oberstein. In September, a corona denier shot the young man who was helping out at the cash register and asking the customer to wear a mask. Such acts are to be feared in the coming year in view of the “wildfire” threats against vaccinating doctors, politicians, journalists and other enemy images of corona deniers and vaccination opponents, say security experts.

Extreme right-wing influences

Part of the spectrum of corona deniers and vaccination opponents is now dominated by right-wing extremists and Reich citizens. The President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Thomas Haldenwang, speaks of a “right-wing extremization” of the protest. Security circles cite the Markus Beisicht case as a striking example. The lawyer from Leverkusen was once a leading figure of the right-wing extremist, emphasizes the anti-Islamic small party “Pro NRW”. Since last year he has been a member of the city parliament for the group “Aufbruch Leverkusen”. Beisicht conducts anti-vaccination demonstrations in the street.

The well-known right-wing extremist is also followed by citizens who have not yet been noticed as constitutional enemies. Beisicht tries to stir up fears with wild slogans. During his appearances, he speaks of a “dictatorship” and compares the resistance of those who oppose vaccination with the fight of the South African freedom hero Nelson Mandela against apartheid.

Corona protest in Munich.Foto: imago images / aal.photo

Beisicht is networked in the spectrum of corona deniers and vaccination opponents. On the Facebook page of the group “Corona Rebellen Düsseldorf” you can find texts of support, including an application for the Leverkusen city council. Consent calls for the local parliament to oppose a “further deepening division of our citizenship into ‘vaccinated’ and ‘unvaccinated’ through the application of the ‘2-G rule’ in both the commercial and cultural areas”.

That sounds concerned and civil, but the “Corona Rebels Düsseldorf” have already acted very differently. In August 2020 they took part in the attempted assault on the Reichstag in Berlin. The police were only able to prevent the mob with black, white and red flags from entering the Bundestag and rioting like Trump’s supporters in the Capitol.

AfD continues to radicalize

The AfD is trying to increase public hostility among corona deniers and vaccination opponents, says a security expert. The party takes up irritating topics such as the fight against the pandemic, “to act against the state”. Constitutional protector Kramer warns, “the AfD sucks honey from the protest”.

The internal radicalization of the AfD is also increasing. A drastic example are the civil war fantasies in a Telegram chat group of Bavarian AfD members, including members of the Landtag and Bundestag, which became known in December through research by the Bavarian Broadcasting Corporation. There was talk of “ruling criminals”, Germany was a “banana country” and the political system was “corrupt and criminal”. Without overthrow and revolution, “we can no longer change course here,” wrote an AfD politician.

The party will be “even more worth watching” than it has been up to now, says a security expert. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution had completely classified the AfD as a right-wing extremist “suspected case” in February. In March, however, the Cologne Administrative Court temporarily stopped the intelligence service due to a lawsuit by the AfD. The judges will now decide in the coming year whether the Federal Office can assess the whole party as a suspected case and monitor it accordingly, including about informants from the AfD.

Left-wing extremists against corona deniers

Left-wing extremists are increasingly mobilizing against the activities of corona deniers and vaccination opponents. “For the left-wing extremist scene, these people are all right-wing extremists,” says a security expert. In demonstrations by corona deniers, an increase in clashes with antifa activists is to be expected. “That rocks up,” says the expert.

A corona demo in Göppingen in Baden-Württemberg.Photo: dpa / Christoph Schmidt

Problems are also expected in another field. Left-wing extremists like the association “Interventionist Left” are trying to radicalize the climate protection movement. The protection of the Constitution sees a growing influence of left-wing extremists – and a lack of distance from violence – in the “Endegebiet” alliance, which propagates “mass actions of civil disobedience” against lignite mining.

At the same time, it is said from the security circles, a further emotionalization can also be observed among some of the non-extremist climate protectors. Up to enmity against the state. Here, too, an increasingly militant attitude cannot be ruled out. However, experts emphasize that terrorism is unlikely. “There are no signs of an eco-RAF,” says an expert.

Boost for Islamists

Militant Islamists have a new place of longing. Since the Taliban came to power in August, Afghanistan has been proof, especially for Salafists, that “our faith can still win,” says a security expert. This also applies to Islamists who sympathize with the terrorist militia “Islamic State” (IS), which is fighting against the Taliban in Afghanistan. But the mere fact that after the defeat of the IS in Syria and Iraq a state of God became possible again, is “an ideological incentive”.

The authorities fear that the upswing is likely to increase the risk of terrorism in Germany as well. Especially since IS has reorganized itself in the retreat areas on the Iraqi-Syrian border, an expert calls it “Sunni pockets”.

The greatest risk is the machinations of IS agitators who radicalize young, unstable Muslims with combat videos or direct contact via social media and messenger services. In November, a 27-year-old Syrian stabbed passengers on an ICE in Bavaria, injuring four people. The authorities initially only assumed a mental disorder, but then the police found IS propaganda films in the perpetrator’s home.
The trace to the terrorist militia in the Hagen case is even clearer. In September the police arrested a 16-year-old Syrian in the Westphalian city who was planning a bomb attack on the local synagogue. An IS instructor with the code name “Abu Harb” (father of the war) had manipulated the youth. Such stories will also be “the most acute danger” in 2022, says an expert. But he also names tendencies that have so far hardly been taken into account in public.

Afghanistan comes directly into the picture. After the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan, the terrorist organization Al Qaeda has “a free hand”, it is said. The new interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani, is already taking care of that. He is considered to be the link between the Taliban and Al Qaeda, and he is said to have orchestrated serious attacks in Afghanistan himself before the change in power. Haqqani wouldn’t stand in the way of a second 9/11, my experts.

It is feared that Al Qaeda, with the help of the Interior Minister, will use the departure of former Afghan “local staff” from Western countries and aid organizations to smuggle terrorists into the USA and Europe – with real passports. In the worst case, the Taliban and Al Qaeda can be trusted to kill former local workers in order to be able to use their documents.

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