More than two years without Indian Wells. The stop in the Californian desert had become an important moment in the calendar of tennis fans, since we are talking about a tournament with some spectacular facilities and in constant improvement, an event that has produced some of the greatest classics of the last decades and in which the Big-3 has historically shown its best level. The unforgettable point between Federer and Hewitt, the 2011 final that began with the unquestionable dominance of Djokovic, the exhibition of the renewed Federer in 2017 and his final title, Nadal’s comebacks against players like Nalbandián or Zverev … the constant is clear : the best always win in Indian Wells, and not only that, they do it by offering unforgettable moments.
But, of course: the pandemic of coronavirus it has left us more than two long seasons without tennis. And in that period of time, a lot of things have changed. Imagine that some remote hermit hiding under the rocks of the Californian desert woke up now, having been hibernating since the tournament was canceled (the first to close at the beginning of the long pandemic) in 2019. Could you have guessed that Daniil Medvedev would be a Grand Slam champion? That the rankings would be frozen for months? What would you not see after your awakening to Djokovic, Nadal or Federer? Would you know players like Sinner, Alcaraz, Brooksby or Rune? Yes, Indian Wells in October It is an anomaly typical of the times that we have lived … and for that reason it is a land of opportunities in the men’s circuit.
None of the great favorites for the title accumulates a good background in the Californian tournament. Their experience is scarce, in several cases nil. Let’s focus on Medvedev, the man who turns heads. It will be his first tournament as a Grand Slam champion, a tag that can be motivating, but also a huge mental slab (tell Thiem). The conditions in the desert, with courts that favor the bounce of the ball, not too fast and almost closer to the clay than many concrete courts, are not the most favorable for the Muscovite. In fact, in his three previous appearances never made it past the third round: in 2017 he lost in his debut against Mikhail Youzhny, in 2018 Pablo Carreño gave a good account of him and in 2019, in the last edition, he was Filip Krajinovic who swept him 6-3 and 6-2. At the time, Daniil was the last newcomer to the top-15; two years later he is the second best player on the planet, possibly the fittest today.
But the other big favorites to the title are not that they have too much experience in the desert. How do you stay if I tell you that the best performance of Alexander Zverev, probably the longest-established elite #NextGen player, took place when he was still a beardless 18-year-old? It is easy to guess who stopped him at that moment: Rafa Nadal, in a duel in which the German wasted match balls and that went down in the history of the Californian tournament. It was in 2016, but since then the German has not improved that foray into the round of 16: he never won two games in a row in Indian Wells again, accumulating losses against Nick Kyrgios, Joao Sousa and Jan-Lennard Struff.
It has not done better either Stefanos Tsitsipas, the man who culminates the recap among the members of the top-4. The Greek hit rock bottom two seasons ago, when he fell on his debut to a Felix Auger-Aliassime that promised a lot and that he could not find a way to defeat. Those were, precisely, his words: an exercise in brutal self-criticism before a tennis player who, with the passage of time and thanks to his enormous development curve, he managed to find the formula to defeat. The case: in the tournament that concerns us, Indian Wells, Tsitsipas has only achieved one victory … against Radu Albot. Nothing more.
Hubert Hurkacz, the revelation of the top-8?
One of the most curious data that this walk through time throws refers to Hubert Hurkacz. In a land almost unknown to all title favorites, the player who has come the furthest in the desert was the Pole, back in 2019: fell in front of Roger Federer in the quarterfinals by a double 6-4, but before they had defeated tennis players of the stature of Pouille, Nishikori and Shapovalov. He is the player in the top-8 favorites with the best winning percentage in Indian Wells: Andrey Rublev never made it past the third round, Matteo Berrettini he hasn’t even won a match in the final draw (!) and Felix Auger-Aliassime he also gave up his best third round appearance. In short, an event is approaching us in which it is almost impossible to talk about experience or knowledge of these tracks: as the last noteworthy data, we will not have any champion in previous editions and only a single finalist (Andy Murray in 2009) . Land of opportunities for outlaws who want to start to gain weight. Who will be the sheriff?
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