Unless you’re Derek Jeter or Barry Larkin, almost every great offensive shortstop of the past 50 years eventually ends up elsewhere.
Robin Yount began his career as an MVP shortstop and ended it as an MVP center fielder. Just over a year after breaking Lou Gehrig’s consecutive game record, Cal Ripken moved to third base. Nomar Garciaparra made his last All-Star team at first base. Alex Rodriguez went from short to third and designated hitter.
The two notable exceptions from this generation, Hall of Famers Larkin and Jeter, clearly surpassed their respective welcomes in the middle of the diamond. To the extent that Jeter, technically a five-time Golden Glove, was once a good fielder, those skills had left him permanently when he played 130 games at shortstop as a 40-year-old in 2014 and cost the Yankees the staggering 28 runs. , according to Baseball Info Solutions. Larkin was a less extreme negative during his final season, also at age 40, in 2004 with the Reds.
You can probably see where this is going. I’m not happy to say it, but if the Red Sox aren’t looking urgently at what’s next for All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts, they’re not doing their job.
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Just a couple of weeks before his 29th birthday, Bogaerts remains an elite offensive force, a .300-.500.-900 superstar with 30 power home runs, near-full plate coverage (save for the occasional slider) and a penchant for fulfilling in great moments.
He’s been described so many times as the heart and soul of the Red Sox that the phrase rings from memory, but it’s true. While many of Boston’s stars start looking for exits as soon as free agency calls, Bogaerts not only took less money to stay, but he also delivered.
He owns two World Series rings since he debuted in 2013 and if next year’s opt-out doesn’t get in the way, he’ll also be the anchor for the Red Sox’s next contending team. He was built to play here, it’s homegrown, and hopefully he may never wear another uniform.
With all those accolades established, here comes the suction cup punch: He’s a drag on a primary defensive position. And the Red Sox must map out a way forward.
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That they can’t play defense in 2021 has long been established. The latest blemish came Monday night when Kyle Schwarber, playing out of position at first base, kicked a routine two-out groundout that set up the decisive three-run homer in a 5-4 loss to the Mariners.
If you want a bad defense, go to the buffet. Rafael Devers made every April grounder an adventure. During his four-month slump before catching fire in August, first baseman Bobby Dalbec fielded as badly as he swung. The arrival of Schwarber and the hammer of COVID forced coach Alex Cora to reconfigure the outfield in a way that turned out to be killer on defense, because any lineup other than Alex Verdugo on the left, Kiké Hernández in the center and Hunter Renfroe in the right will cost the team races.
Yet overlooked in all defensive fights is Bogaerts, perhaps because he’s hitting .300 with 21 homers, including one during Monday’s futile comeback. Or maybe it’s because it’s popular and we prefer to look away.
Of 23 shortstops to play at least 800 innings this season, Bogaerts is 19th in defensive runs saved to minus five, according to Fangraphs. The advanced metrics on Baseball Savant are even tougher, placing him 34th of 35 shortstop in outs above average with minus nine, 27 runs behind Diamondbacks leader Nick Ahmed.
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The problem is not the errors. Bogaerts is safe and has only done eight of them. It is range. As Bogaerts made a standout play in the middle over the weekend from his knees against the White Sox, ask yourself this: When was the last time you surprised him from the hole?
Like Garciaparra, around the same age, the 6-foot-2 Bogaerts doesn’t cover much ground, particularly to his right. That’s part of the reason the Red Sox pitchers have allowed a .324 batting average, the worst in the league, in balls in play, roughly 35 points worse than average.
It goes without saying that every ball that doesn’t make an out is another career opportunity, as the Red Sox have learned with disturbing frequency.
Your defensive problems are what they are and there is no way to fix them now. If they’re lucky enough to make the playoffs, their stay will almost certainly be short, because teams that can’t play can’t last in the postseason.
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The question is the future. Bogaerts played third as a rookie in order to break the lineup, but when the Red Sox tried to move him back in mid-2014 to make room for Stephen Drew, he did so psychologically. He plays with pride and considers himself a shortstop. Final point.
If Chaim Bloom and Cora want to tackle a change of position, they will have to do it delicately, especially when it enters what is effectively a one-year contract. The good news is that Bogaerts’ bat plays anywhere. If management wanted to radically realign the picture, Bogaerts could move to third and Devers to first. Another possibility would be to go the Marcus Semien route and switch to second base, a move that will earn him MVP votes from the former A’s shortstop with the Blue Jays.
What’s clear to anyone who pays attention is that for all his leadership, character and offensive greatness, Bogaerts’s days as a daily shortstop must end sooner rather than later if the Red Sox are to rebuild their infield defense.
There is certainly no shame in it. It’s a destination reserved for virtually all elite shortstop. Some arrive a little earlier than others.
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