Daniil Medvedev already number one? Calculations cause a stir

“In the second set I played unbelievable tennis”, Medvedev marveled at himself. The 25-year-old has amazed competitors, the media and fans for a long time. The title at the US Open a few weeks ago was the preliminary highlight of the Medvedev Festival.

On March 15, the Muscovite climbed to second place in the world rankings. A turning point. It was the first time since Lleyton Hewitt in July 2005 that a player outside of the Big Four around Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray was so high in the ranking.

Then Medvedev would be before Djokovic

The French tennis statisticians from “Jeu, Set et Maths” have now presented an interesting calculation, according to which Medvedev could even be number one – as long as the normally valid 52-week rule is applied.

This means that the results of the past 52 weeks are included in the calculation of the world ranking list points.

Due to the corona pandemic, the ATP had to make changes. Initially, the calculation period was extended to 22 months, later to 24 months. Although these measures expired on August 9, the results of certain events from 2019 and the first half of 2020 are still rated at 50 percent.

Good for Djokovic, who currently has a lead of 1558 points on Medvedev (10575) with 12133 points.

If you only include the results of the past 52 weeks, the picture would be different: According to complicated calculations by “Jeu, Set et Maths”, the Russian would have taken the lead on day one after the US Open with 9015 points from the Serb, who was less played and would have been at 8860.

There would also be shifts behind this. Alexander Zverev, currently number four in the ranking, would swap his position with Stefanos Tsitsipas, who would move from three to four. But the greatest beneficiary is Roger Federer.

Calculation results: Federer number 76 in the world

For Medvedev, meanwhile, it is next to impossible to knock Djokovic off the throne this year. The US Open winner finished the 2020 season brilliantly and won the Paris-Bercy Masters and the ATP Finals in London. The two titles were worth 2500 points – and he will have to defend them this fall.

Djokovic left Paris-Bercy out last year and only got 400 points at the ATP Finals as a semi-finalist. There is every reason to believe that the 34-year-old will finish a season as an industry leader for the seventh time, breaking Pete Sampras’ record.

Changing of the guard in the 2022 season?

The cards will then be reshuffled in 2022 – and Medvedev is considered the most promising candidate to replace Djokovic. “What I like about his game is that he’s always aggressive. If he’s 2-0 up in sets, he still doesn’t stop there. Daniil just stays on the accelerator. I can’t make a mistake in his game,” praised Eurosport expert Mats Wilander the 25 year old.

In addition, there is a healthy dose of self-confidence. “I know what I’m capable of. It’s hard to beat me,” said Medvedev on the way to the Flushing Meadows title – and delivered.

Germany’s tennis legend Boris Becker sees the time for change as coming. “The generation change has happened, the younger generation has taken over,” the 53-year-old told im Eurosport podcast The yellow from the ball. Means: Medvedev will probably get to know the feeling of being number one in the world to go to a tournament in the foreseeable future.

Podcast – The yellow from the ball: Becker on replacing the Big 3