It only took Trae Young three-quarters for the Milwaukee Bucks to blink.
That might not be among the most obvious takeaways from Young’s performance in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals: a 48-point, 11-assist masterpiece that led Atlanta to its third win in a road opener in this postseason. The initial conclusion is that Young is an absolute superstar, now just three wins away from the Finals at age 22 and gaining new devotees with every swashbuckling game.
The second impression is that Young lives to be the center of attention, adding to his arc against the Knicks with a Dunk Contest-worthy alley-oop and an exaggerated shoulder shake before an open triple.
But the most important strategic consideration in Game 1, a 116-113 Hawks win, is that Young was so quick to split the Bucks’ base defense, so dynamic for three quarters of a game, that he forced Mike Budenholzer, Milwaukee’s famous stubborn coach, to make the first adjustment of the series and trade his rotation for the fourth.
Looking ahead to this series, a surprise couple from no. 3 and no. 5-seeded in the East, the key showdown appeared to be Young’s offense against the Bucks defense, a perfect match of player and opponent. Despite his 3-point bombing reputation, Young really likes to shoot from the middle areas; As writer Owen Phillips has documented, the Atlanta shooting guard makes a much greater selection of shots in the short mid-range, between the restricted area and the free throw line, than the league as a whole.
That turns out to be the exact area the Bucks are trying to channel their opponents into, as even the best mid-range attempts tend to be lower value looks than layups and 3s. (However, that’s not always the case, as Kevin Durant can attest from the second round.) Young led the league in attempting four floats per game this regular season, converting 46 percent, but the Bucks would live with that math; 46 percent from two points is not an efficient shot.
So Milwaukee entered Game 1 with its typical knockdown coverage strategy, employed primarily by Brook Lopez. The Bucks gave Young floaters as they tried to shut out all of Atlanta’s other options, the same strategy Portland tried against Nikola Jokic in the first round, and the Spurs tried against Steve Nash in the middle of the years.
But that strategy relies on eliminating the star’s teammates, and Young’s teammates did enough to help him in Game 1, even as Bogdan Bogdanovic (four points on 1-of-6 shooting) battled a lingering injury. on the knee and bench. It was quiet. The duo of John Collins and Clint Capela in the frontcourt was particularly effective: Collins scored 23 points and grabbed 15 rebounds, while Capela had 12 points and 19 rebounds.
With those teammates pouring rain, and with Young increasing his point total to 37 in three quarters, the Bucks changed tactics for the fourth. Previously, Budenholzer had expanded the rotation he used in the last games of the last round in which he was supposed to win. In Games 5-7 against Brooklyn, neither Jeff Teague nor Bobby Portis played at all. In Game 1 against Atlanta, they combined for 21 minutes, though none in the fourth quarter, as Budenholzer, to his credit, quickly realized that both backups, Teague in particular, were walking targets for Young’s sleight of hand.
In the fourth quarter, Budenholzer tightened the rotation and played primarily with a five-man group that could change all teams at all positions. The Bucks’ fourth quarter minute distribution suggests a clear direction going forward, as the team’s centers played 12 seconds combined in the final draw with Giannis Antetokounmpo stepping in as the only big man:
Bucks in the fourth quarter of game 1
Player playing time Player playing time Giannis Antetokounmpo 12:00 Khris Middleton 12:00 Jrue Holiday 12:00 PJ Tucker 11:44 Pat Connaughton 8:11 Bryn Forbes 3:53 Brook Lopez 0:12 Bobby Portis 0:00 Jeff Teague 0:00
Even in a loss, and even allowing Young to score 48 points, the Bucks must feel like they’ve found a defensive solution, for now, towards the end of the game. Young shot 4 of 4 from short mid-range in the first half, according to NBA.com, down from just 1 of 7 in the second half. And in the fourth quarter, with the Bucks switching picks and without a big man on the floor, Young barely ventured inside the arc. Giannis’s length is a fearsome deterrent.
Milwaukee would be delighted with a replay of Young’s shooting chart in the fourth quarter: lots of deep 3s and almost no shots from penetration.
However, a strategy without a center is not a complete panacea. In particular, he sacrifices some presence on the defensive glass, a rarity for the Bucks, who have been one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league during Budenholzer’s tenure. When the Hawks trailed 111-107 in the final two minutes, they took the lead with a triple from Collins (after two offensive rebounds) and a pullback from Capela (after another offensive draw).
Capela led the league in offensive rebounds this season, at 4.7 per game, and he can certainly make the Bucks pay to play without a true center, especially if Giannis is on the perimeter controlling Young.
That’s the tradeoff for every strategic decision in the playoffs, when a long series forces moves and counterattacks and counterattacks. Neither option is perfect: The Hawks could be ready with counterattacks for Giannis’ trades in Game 2, or Young could miss enough of his floaters to tilt the math toward a falling defense, or a team could go berserk from a distance. and do everything. moot settings for one night.
That wasn’t the case on Wednesday, when neither team could find any kind of rhythm on 3s. Atlanta was 8 of 32 and Milwaukee 8 of 36, with Khris Middleton’s 0 of 9 showing a particularly low. The Bucks shot 39 percent on 3s in the regular season, a top-five mark, but are down to 30 percent in the postseason. Damn defensive minutiae, they won’t win the title unless that number improves.
They’re also not going to win the title unless they can stop Young from dancing all over their court again, and no one has been able to stop him this postseason yet – not the Knicks, not the top-seeded 76ers, not the Bucks. in Game 1. This series has a long way to go, with many additional adjustments to come. But Young made the Bucks attack first and the Hawks won anyway. The Eastern Conference Finals, according to The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine, are a launch heading into Game 2.
Sign up for The Ringer newsletter
