The AFL final is within reach as the home and away seasons end with the beginning of the 18th round on Thursday evening.
Seats are still free as the final positions on the ladder will be canceled and changed until the last siren of the season.
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Brisbane and Port Adelaide are anchored in the top 2, including a three-way race for places 3-5. But it’s the last three places where chaos reigns.
Five clubs are trying to get a place in the serious action. Collingwood is guaranteed to be one of the bottom three spots, but where they will land is unclear.
Four years ago, the Western Bulldogs ended the Cinderella story after finishing seventh on the ladder before winning the Premier League.
If the chaotic season has taught us something, then of course anything is possible. The Bulldogs have every chance of finishing seventh or tenth.
To try to make things less stressful for anyone trying to break down the ladder’s history, we’ve listed the ladder positions along with the teams that can land in those spots and ranked them according to the likelihood of outcome.
1. Port Adelaide or Brisbane Lions
A power win against Collingwood brings them to the top. Brisbane must defeat Carlton and see the Magpies win to reach the top.
2. Brisbane Lions or Port Adelaide
As above. Brisbane sits in the driver’s seat for second place.
3. Richmond, Geelong, West Coast
Richmond beat Adelaide on Saturday afternoon. Geelong will have to beat Sydney on Sunday afternoon, hoping the Crows’ youngest form can get them across the line against the Tigers. The Eagles will have to beat North Melbourne on Thursday night and then watch Adelaide and Sydney win to finish third.
4. Geelong, Richmond, West Coast
Geelong can claim the last double chance if they win with Richmond. The Tigers will drop to fourth place with one loss and one win from Geelong or West Coast. The same goes for the Eagles, who win and lose one from Geelong or Richmond.
5. West Coast, Geelong, Richmond
The Eagles can finish a home final with a win and lose the two teams above them. They can also complete a home final if they lose. Geelong and Richmond can drop to fifth if one of the teams loses and the other wins along with the Eagles. If both teams lose and the Eagles win, Geelong will finish fifth.
6. St. Kilda, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs
The giants could spoil the party but expect the Saints to shoot if they try to secure sixth place on the ladder. A win locks them in sixth or seventh place, depending on Collingwood’s game. Collingwood wins, they’ll secure sixth place. The Bulldogs need a win, both teams lose to secure sixth place.
7. Western Bulldogs, St. Kilda, Collingwood, Melbourne
A simple equation for the Bulldogs: you win and you will be in. A win combined with a loss to Collingwood will result in the dogs finishing 7th (just like in 2016). For the Saints, they can end up in seventh place at a loss and Fremantle defeats the dogs. A Dogs or Saints win and a Collingwood loss would put the Pies in seventh place. The demons must win, that’s the first step, along with Fremantle beating the dogs.
8. Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, St. Kilda, Melbourne GWS Giants
After a defeat and a win by Saints and Dogs, the Pies drop to eighth place. If Collingwood defeats Port, the Saints or Dogs will finish eighth if they also win. The demons simply pray for a loss from the saints or the dogs. Losing the dogs is the easier route to eighth place. If it’s the Saints who lose, the Dees must be five percentage points. For the giants it takes a lot to go their way, they have to defeat the Saints and then hope that Essendon and Fremantle can defeat Melbourne and the dogs. Should win by a huge margin if either the dogs or the dees got up too.
ROUND 18 FASTENING
Thursday: West Coast versus North Melbourne
Friday: St. Kilda versus GWS Giants
Saturday: Melbourne versus Essendon, Richmond versus Adelaide, Brisbane versus Carlton
Sunday: Hawthorn versus Gold Coast, Geelong versus Sydney, Western Bulldogs versus Fremantle
Monday: Port Adelaide versus Collingwood
AFL FINALS WEEK 1 PREDICTION
First qualifying final (1 against 4): Port Adelaide against Geelong – Adelaide Oval
First elimination final (5 versus 8): West Coast versus Collingwood – Optus Stadium
Second elimination final (6 versus 7): St. Kilda versus Western Bulldogs – Metricon Stadium / Gabba
Second qualifying final (3v4): Brisbane v Richmond – Gabba
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