It has been one of the NBA’s favorite party games for a year (at least): Will Giannis Antetokounmpo leave the Bucks? If so, where will it land?
The volume of that chatter has grown stronger in the past 24 hours after Jimmy Butler dominated the fourth quarter and the Heat knocked out the Bucks in Game 1. Suddenly everyone took apart everything Antetokounmpo and people across the championship said. they launched scenarios (like Sam Amick does at Athletic with a front office executive).
Milwaukee will offer Antetokounmpo a maximum contract this summer, but if the Bucks are out in the second round he probably won’t sign it. And then every crazy theory comes into play.
Conventional wisdom throughout the league has been that Antetokounmpo would sign again in Milwaukee, any planning was more of a “just in case” scenario.
There were three main reasons for Giannis Antetokounmpo to stay – and the heat could blow one of them up. Let’s analyze the three reasons:
1) $ 222 million guaranteed.
We do not know what the championship salary cap will be in the 2021-22 season when Antetokounmpo’s new contract comes into effect (the figure above $ 222 is based on the limit which remains unchanged). We know: Milwaukee can offer more guaranteed money than any other team.
The Bucks can offer a fifth year; no other team can offer more than four years. It’s something the owners put into the latest CBA as a “Kevin Durant” rule to help small and mid market teams keep the stars, but it didn’t. It just speeded up the decision making process.
For elite stars like Antetokounmpo, the guaranteed fifth year doesn’t really matter. The final year of that contract will be Antetokounmpo’s 31-year-old season – he will still be in his prime and can expect to be paid at most by someone else for that season. Even if he loses his warranty in that fifth year, he’s not losing that much money (slightly bigger raises the Bucks can offer). As we have seen with many stars (most recently Anthony Davis), there is not enough money for him to stay if Antetokounmpo wants to go out.
2) Milwaukee is his home.
This does not change and is a huge attraction. Milwaukee is the only real home Antetokounmpo has ever had in the US, this will not be a LeBron James returning to Cleveland / Kawhi Leonard in the Clippers situation. He likes Milwaukee, his girlfriend Mariah Riddlesprigger is there, as is his son, Liam.
More to the heart of the matter, Milwaukee is the first place Antetokounmpo and his family have ever felt safe together. He grew up poor and a stranger in Athens, and while he’s from there in many ways Milwaukee is home. It’s a draw, a reason to stay.
3) Milwaukee is a contender.
This is what Miami could explode.
The Bucks have been arguably the best defensive team and the best team ever in the regular season for the past couple of years. Last season, that didn’t translate to beating the Raptors in the playoffs, which led to the question of whether the team learned their lesson from them.
Game 1 suggested no. Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez came forward when the defense built a wall and focused on Antetokounmpo but it wasn’t enough. Towards the end of the game it was Butler, not Giannis Antetokounmpo, who took over. Milwaukee’s basic defense that allows the three is going up against the best three shot team in the bubble and that’s a problem. Then there is the matter of adjustments and a plan B for the money: why wasn’t Antetokounmpo late in the game? Why didn’t Antetokounmpo ask to be?
If Milwaukee continues to lose this series, and Giannis Antetokounmpo watches East and sees Boston tea on the rise, a Brooklyn team that is about to improve a lot, and Miami still there with Butler stuck, does he see himself in a contender?
If not, will he want to go to one? Will the Bucks be forced to trade it or risk it walking for nothing? (Much like OKC with Kevin Durant, it’s hard to imagine Milwaukee making a trade unless Antetokounmpo tells them he won’t sign again, as much as it would be a big risk to lose it, it’s too hard for a market like Milwaukee to get a star this way. . They must try to conquer him until the last minute.)
That idea makes fans dream and plan from the Golden State to New York. If Antetokounmpo is available, 29 other teams want to get in on the action.
That defeat to the Heat was a match, and maybe Wednesday night the Bucks and Antetokounmpo answer all those questions and silence the rumors. At least for a few days.
But people across the league are watching the Bucks and think things could get very interesting this summer.
