What Ben Simmons’ injury means for the Boston Celtics

With Thursday’s game against the Washington Wizards in the books, the Boston Celtics have completed their eight seeded games in the NBA bubble. They retained the third seed in the Eastern Conference, and now look forward to their first foe in the playoffs: the Philadelphia 76ers archrival. But while the Sixers may have taken the regular season series from Boston 3-1, their upcoming playoff dance will be a little different without All-Star forward Ben Simmons, who underwent surgery after a subluxation. left knee last week and will miss the rest of the season.

Simmons became something of a punchline for his general reluctance to shoot back three, especially in the playoffs. It is an extremely notable weakness, especially for a lead handler, which has been exploited on numerous occasions. In Boston’s five-game series win in the 2018 Eastern Conference semifinals, the Celtics infamously abandoned Simmons completely, leaving him alone on the perimeter and completely silencing Philadelphia’s offensive distance.

It is tempting, therefore, to underestimate Simmons’ value for the 76ers. The mythical “Ewing theory” has already been invoked on several occasions. But be clear: Philadelphia is substantially worse off without Simmons on the pitch, and his absence will have serious implications for the Celtics in the first round of the playoffs.

Even considering his shortcomings as a shooter, it’s a trait to suggest that the Sixers will be better off without Simmons on the offensive side. On a team with so few individual shooters, his ability to create looks for his teammates is invaluable. Their best facilitating guard in his absence may be Raul Neto. It’s also one of the NBA’s most dangerous downhill threats, shooting 71% on the edge despite not being a credible threat from range. The degree of difficulty in finding good shots will essentially jump without him on the pitch.

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That said, they will probably still be able to pass the rally as an offense without him. Embiid can serve as a highly capable offensive hub thanks to his formidable post work, and around him, Philly can space the floor with more radius. Simmons’ absence will provide more minutes for average to good shooters such as Alec Burks, Matisse Thybulle, Furkan Korkmaz, Raul Neto and Mike Scott. It’s not exactly a star-studded cluster, but this reverse approach should allow them to at least hold on. The game enhanced by bubble breakout guard Shake Milton (only 12 out of 36 in the last four games) is a must.

It’s on the defensive side that the Sixers will feel Simmons’ injury most acutely. As one of the four or five most versatile defenders in basketball, his importance at that end of the court cannot be overstated. Joel Embiid may be the anchor behind the Sixers’ eighth defense, but Simmons is the Swiss Army knife that allows for much of what they want to do. He defends 1 to 4 for Philly – he also spends some time on the centers – and is absolutely disruptive on the perimeter, ranking among the league leaders in deflections and steals. In the bubble, the Sixers’ defensive rating is a nasty 117.9 when he sits down.

Against the Celtics and their talented trio of wings, losing Simmons will prove devastating. The Sixers still have two very effective perimeter defenders: Josh Richardson and rookie Matisse Thybulle, but beyond that, their options aren’t interesting. The trio of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward will see favorable opportunities against players like Burks, Korkmaz and Scott. This further underlines Embiid’s responsibilities as a rim protector, especially if he is not 100% healthy after recent ankle and wrist injuries.

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Tatum in particular will benefit from Simmons’ absence. The Sixers no longer have an ideal option to control him. In Wednesday’s defeat to Toronto, Al Horford equalized the start to the four alongside Embiid, but asking him to chase Tatum around the perimeter would have been a tall order even if he were still in his physical prime. Tobias Harris is a closer physical match, but he’s been a mediocre defender at best for much of his career, certainly not someone you want to protect an option no. Richardson or Thybulle can move, but both are at a disadvantage in length against his pull-up jumper – and again, this leaves Brown or Hayward in an advantageous position. Philly will be forced to choose her own poison.

None of this suggests that 76ers should be taken lightly. They still have the talent to win games and, at this point, they have nothing to lose. Embiid is the type of player who can win a playoff match on his own and his supporting cast remains solid, especially if Horford manages to win back some of his playoff magic from the days of Boston and Atlanta. They do not tip over easily.

However, Simmons’ injury is a substantial loss. A team that had pre-season hopes for a championship turned into an underdog just trying to play spoilers. The Celtics now have a distinct advantage and, if they capitalize correctly, they should be looking forward to a clash with the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference semifinals.