These aren’t your typical playoff Lakers. After seeing Magic Johnson, Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant overwhelm defenses with incredible offensive prowess, it’s odd to see this season’s team lean on defense to win games.
Manager Frank Vogel and his staff deserve some luster for taking last season’s mediocre defense and remodeling it into a group with the third best defensive score in the NBA, along with the best defensive indicators in the West’s load. While these numbers are encouraging, Lakers haters can still point to some potentially serious flaws on the other side of the pitch.
This crime shouldn’t scare anyone right now. Even though LA posted a respectable offensive score of 113.2 in the playoffs, it’s doing so against a team of Blazers whose seven most-used three-match formation combos in seeded matches have given up at least 120 points for 100 possessions. This is one of the worst defenses in the league, making it hard to say that these Lakers have really figured out how to score regularly post-season.
Let me give you three quick reasons why the Lakers’ offensive performance could cost them a title, even if they easily get from a team of Blazers who are now without Damian Lillard.
- Since the restart, the Lakers’ offense has ranked 19th out of 22 teams on the bubble in terms of scoring efficiency, scoring below the average of 108 points out of 100. It’s worse than the Grizzlies and Pelicans, who have already left. the defeated bubble.
- The Lakers finished 20th out of 22 bubble teams in terms of pick-and-roll efficiency since restart. Only the Pacers and the Wizards fared worse in that category.
- Not only do they rank last with a 3-point percentage (31.7%) since restart, but they’ve also been one of the worst jumping shooting teams all season – ranking 27th in the league by actual percentage of field goal (eFG) on jumpers during the regular season and last in that category from the restart.
The latter is of particular concern. It’s hard to see how feasible a championship run is when all but two players on the team (Kyle Kuzma and Markieff Morris) post 50% worse eFGs on their jumpers, on second spectrum monitoring.
Looking back on the last 10 teams to reach the finals, all 10 finished in the top five in terms of jumping shooting efficiency that season. All 10! Either these Lakers will break that baseline, get unexpectedly hot or watch their mason tendencies end their season.
When the Lakers jumpers fall, they seem unstoppable, but this type of game was the exception. They have won 23 of 25 games this season when they have made at least 38% of their 3, but have only done so in three of 12 games since the restart. They were just as likely to be hateful from the center, hitting less than 16% of their 3 in three of their 12 bubble games. That’s too many skunks, and if this team is to win it all, they definitely need to strengthen their consistency in the long run.
The mediocrity of the Lakers jump shot is the result of a few bad apples. Only one of the team’s most active shooters is even converting jumpers to league average rates (51.3 eFG% in the bubble), and that’s Kuzma. The other four guys on this list below aren’t doing their weight. Unless some of them overheat, the Lakers’ chances of exiting the West are slim.
The Lakers’ most active jump shooters since reboot (to second spectrum)
A name on that table should raise an eyebrow.
Going into this postseason, it was clear that Davis would be the main X factor for this team. But if there’s one number that continues to haunt Davis deeply into his eighth season, it’s his shooting efficiency. While many of the other poor shooter superstars put up with endless ridicule, somehow Davis has largely escaped that fate. But his hit chart reveals a player who is dominant in the paint but unreliable outside of it.
Davis is one of the most overwhelming physical appearances in the league right now, but his sweater isn’t great. And its relatively high-volume mid-range activity doesn’t help matters either.
Davis’ eFG versus league average (via Second Spectrum)
- Paint: 63.5 (Davis) | 56.1 (average)
- Without paint 2s: 37.1 (Davis) | 40.6 (average)
- 3s: 48.9 (Davis) | 53.8 (average)
Brow’s shooting troubles are a key issue he brought with him to Florida. Check it:
- Out of 160 players who attempted at least 250 jump shots during the regular season, Davis ranked 152nd for efficiency with an eFG of just 42.8%.
- Out of 47 players who have tried at least 75 jumpers in the bubble, Davis is the last in terms of efficiency (40.0% eFG). Markelle Fultz was more active and efficient.
Davis’ shot splits are emblematic of the Lakers as a group. While the Lakers finish first in points scored in the paint for 100 possessions and third in the FG paint% among playoff teams since restart, they finish last in both categories outside of the paint. It’s an alarming split in a post-season full of teams capable of beefing up paint protection and challenging the Lakers to beat them with jump shots.
Beyond the team’s superstar duo, this list simply lacks perimeter firepower. Yes, Green and Kuzma may be catch-and-shoot threats, but they’ve already disappeared a few times. It’s fair to ask if the NBA is truly a league not to be missed, can the Lakers do enough jumpers to win this thing?
We will have a better response in the next round.
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