1. Maybe some of these guys will be useful in the playoffs?
It was a final match that didn’t matter to either team. The Spurs had already been knocked out of the playoffs for the first time since 1997 earlier in the day, and the Jazz finished in sixth seed based on matches that took place on Wednesday night.
The only long-term impact this game has had was perhaps in the draft position, where the Jazz could have secured their twentieth pick by losing. Winning, they could end up anywhere from 20th to 24th.
But by getting at least half of it from some guys on the fringes of the roster, we’ve learned more about their strengths and weaknesses, and maybe got a little idea of whether or not they’ll be able to help Jazz in the playoff.
When you’re evaluating guys who can fit into a playoff caliber rotation, you’re not looking for the best possible scorers, you’re looking for guys who are best at adapting by playing in a team construct. And I thought we saw three players capable of doing that that aren’t usually in the rotation: Miye Oni, Jarrell Brantley, and Juwan Morgan.
Oni and Morgan show the ability to play solid positional defense, while Brantley is not a good positional defender, but he wreaks havoc with his 7-foot-1 wingspan. Oni is a little thin at this point in his NBA career, while Morgan and Brantley are a little stronger. Brantley is an outstanding playmaker – he even played a bit of a point guard at halftime – while Oni and Morgan just play it right as low-usage guys. Neither of the three is a very good rebound. All three are capable but not exceptional shooters.
We have to note that the guys who have had those pivot points this season may just be keeping them. Emmanuel Mudiay got hurt today, but he certainly showed some pros and especially against on the bubble. Georges Niang has found his shot, and that may be enough to keep him on the ground unless he is athletically defeated. And Tony Bradley keeps doing just enough (offensive rebound, finishing around the circle) to counter evil (delayed defensive spins, being devoured in pick and roll).
But if the latter three are being played off the pitch for one reason or another, Quin Snyder doesn’t have to keep them out there. There is a chance that Oni, Morgan or Brantley have a legitimate opportunity in a playoff series.
2. What a disappointing season for Ed Davis
It was Ed Davis’ best game of the season, in just seven minutes on the pitch.
The 11 points he scored in those seven minutes? A high season. He scored his first transition basket of the season. He only scored his fourth basket as the pick and roll man of the season. And he had five recovery points on Thursday afternoon. This is typically his specialty, but for the season he had only scored 17 points in the whole year. He also had six rebounds and one assist.
And then he fell into a group of players as he struggled for a rebound, hurt his knee somehow, and limped off the ground, pointing to the sky as he did so. It was honestly tragic.
Ed Davis didn’t deserve it. Last season, he had the second highest Defensive Real Plus-Minus of anyone else in the league, he was one of the top five rebounds per minute, he was just an outstanding role player for the Brooklyn Nets.
Then he signed to Jazz and had a completely lost season. The Jazz had a terrible bench for most of the year, but it improved a lot once Davis was moved out of it: the Jazz were beaten by 18.8 points per 100 possessions while on the ground. He wasn’t a super effective defender, but the biggest problem was how he added nothing on offense: no casting value, no throw value, nothing. The projection part was important: the Jazz offense so desperately needs effective screens, but Davis never understood it.
I’ll be curious if Davis finds out on his next stop. I think, in retrospect, that Jazz was a bad fit for him, precisely because of that offensive buzz required in Snyder’s system. I’ve never seen it arrive. But he’s also 31 now and wouldn’t be the last player to experience age-related drop in performance. It happens.
Earlier this year, his $ 9.7 million two-year contract looked like a bargain. Now, the season has been bad enough that it probably represents negative value in a trade.
Davis is extremely well-liked – Damian Lillard called him his all-time favorite teammate – and some young squad might bring him on board for that reason more than anything else. But I’m shocked and saddened that it didn’t work out in Utah.
3. Answers to “Burning” questions
That’s all folks! That was the end of the regular season, the strangest of all time. The Jazz finished with a record of 44-28, which is almost exactly a 50-win pace.
Can Donovan Mitchell take a leap?
I know this was Mitchell’s first All-Star season, but to be honest, I think it had a lot more to do with the other Western Conference guards than Mitchell’s performance. It’s hard to argue that he made a leap this season. Here are his numbers for 36 minutes:
| Season | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3p | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | GRT | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | 2638 | 8.1 | 18.6 | .437 | 2.6 | 7.5 | 0,340 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 0.805 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 22.1 |
| 2018-19 | 2598 | 9.2 | 21.2 | 0.432 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 0.362 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 0.806 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 25.3 |
| 2019-20 | 2353 | 9.2 | 20.5 | 0,448 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 0.362 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 0.863 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 25.2 |
Frankly, not much has changed. He became a one percent better finish from inside the bow and a better free throw shooter with fewer attempts. Everything else looks very much the same across the board. I think it can be argued that it was a step forward, but a leap? No.
We knew four of the starters coming into the season, but we didn’t know if Royce O’Neale or Joe Ingles would start more games. Eventually, O’Neale did, but Ingles really struggled in a reserve role, so he was moved into the early rotation. Conley has been injured for enough of the season that they have both started more games than they had come off the bench.
Will Jazz remain in the defensive top-3?
Oh no, no they won’t. I’m in twelfth place right now, an incredibly average performance. Rudy Gobert was elite at times and at times apathetic, but more importantly, he didn’t come close enough to help from his teammates. The bench defense was bad, Mitchell and Conley’s backcourt seemed small and Ingles and Bogdanovic were often caught off guard. This was troubling.
When will Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert find chemistry?
Looking at the stats, Conley actually averaged 1.3 assists per game against Gobert in October and November, and then dropped to around 1.0 assists per level of play. By comparison, two seasons ago he averaged around two assists per game against Marc Gasol.
In other words, he never really clicked to the fullest extent, and I think Conley just focused on catching the floater more than trying to set Gobert in the wrong direction. More than anything else, I think Conley’s alchemy with the rest of the team has been lacking, not necessarily just Gobert, although it has improved over the course of the season.
Will Rudy Gobert be able to break his own dunk record?
No. Gobert has had 221 dunks this season, which is on the pace of 252 in a season of 82 games. He had 306 in 2018-19. The teams, copying the Milwaukee Bucks’ success, spent more defensive resources protecting the paint this year, and so Gobert’s dunks refused. I had expected it, actually!
How much will Jazz use for cargo management?
At the end of the season, a ton. Even in the middle of the season, however, the players were often at rest, especially Conley.
Who will be the Jazz reserve point guard?
Especially Emmanuel Mudiay. Jazz fans were disappointed that he wasn’t Dante Exum, but he wasn’t good at his jazz minutes this season, nor did he set the world on fire after being traded to Cleveland. Exum Island has the lowest number of inhabitants on record.
And Nigel Williams-Goss was hired as a viable third-string option, but he just got zero runs: he scored four points all season before tonight’s game, when he scored 10. In the end, I just don’t understand which both his NBA prowess is, and signing him to a guaranteed deal seems like a terribly odd move in retrospect given the Jazz’s lack of point guard quality. Raul Neto was right there!
How’s the second unit doing?
Oof. I thought it might go average, but it went incredibly bad. Jeff Green and Davis were hideous in their new roles. Ingles moved to the bench and found no success without a big rolling man. Mudiay, Niang and Bradley were called upon to do their best, but they did it at the level of substitutes. The real purchases at the replacement level in the summer were also at the replacement level. The troubles at the Jazz bench have cost them numerous games, and it is the single most problematic problem of the team that goes on.
What’s up Quin Snyder’s sleeve?
Nothing too crazy, it turns out. The Jazz were actually an above-average pace team in 2018-19, but have slowed down to 24th this season. There were a couple of home runs to save the game. It’s hard to fault his rotations when he clearly had a lack of solid players available. However, they fell short of expectations.
It was interesting to hear Snyder during the preparations for the bubble wondering if he had properly coached his team earlier in the season, worrying that perhaps he was treating them more like a young and developing team than he should have. You’ve seen some of these reflections in the best of the Jazz theatrical bubble, where they simply let the musicians work and feel comfortable in the roles, without too much complexity at times. We will see what happens in the playoffs.
Could the breadth of talent beat the NBA’s best?
Well, the breadth of talent declined rapidly. Once Conley transitioned to middle star status, Bogdanovic got hurt and the veteran’s entire bench imploded, the Jazz no longer had ample talent. In most games, it was a matter of deciding whether Mitchell and Gobert can lead their team to victory, with guest star appearances by Conley, Ingles and Jordan Clarkson. And while Mitchell and Gobert are extraordinary talents, they’re certainly not the best duo in the NBA.
The Jazz now enter a playoff series with the Nuggets, where they are underdogs to win. I think they have a good chance – more coverage to come here on SLTrib.com – but aside from a miracle run, it’s been a disappointing year. And that means Dennis Lindsey, Justin Zanik, David Morway and the company have significant work to do in the shortened offseason before next season starts.
