The 2020 FedEx Cup playoffs continue this week with the 2020 BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia, Illinois.
Dustin Johnson, fresh off his 30 under performance at The Northern Trust, is the clear betting favorite at +800 but there is some serious firepower here. Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Daniel Berger and Rory McIlroy are all between +1000 and +2000.
Here are our favorite final bets, dormant picks, props, and pairings for the 2020 BMW Championship:
Final bets
Jason Sobel
Jon Rahm (+1000, $ 10 bet wins $ 100)
A final round 65 brought Rahm to a sixth-place share at The Northern Trust last weekend, but it’s another number that should pique our interest: during that round, he collected 2.79 shots on the pitch from tee to green. , a Sunday hitting the ball we hadn’t seen since the Workday Charity Open, which he immediately won at the Memorial Tournament a week later.
Based on the story and the numbers, it’s hard to believe we’ll never see one of the game’s elite players claim this title again. If you think the DJ will continue to accumulate birds and eagles, I won’t tell you. If you think it will be JT, I can see it. If you prefer Rory or Collin, you might be right.
But if I have to pick one of the best in the game, I take the guy whose game seems to peak once again to get into a tough tournament in the Midwest.
[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Josh Perry
Daniel Berger (+2000)
It’s hard to find someone who has been more consistent each week this year than Berger. Since recovering from his injury, he has taken another step and has shown that he is capable of fighting every time he plays, even in these deep fields.
Form tends to move into the playoffs and with many of the best, like Rory McIlroy, still looking for their A-game, this is a great place for a guy like Berger to take his biggest win to date.
[Bet now at bet365. NJ only.]
Collin Wilson
Viktor Hovland (+4000)
Olympia Fields Country Club hasn’t hosted a PGA TOUR event since the 2003 US Open, so we can throw the course history out the window.
While the ball hit has reigned supreme for the past couple of weeks, I’m taking a different approach to the BMW championship. This is a long course, so what strikes me is Hovland’s off-the-tee ability and his improved approach numbers from 175 yards or more.
[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Matteo Vincenzi
Adam Scott (+4500)
Adam Scott is playing in his third consecutive event and appears to have shaken off the rust by earning 1.4 shots on Tee at Green and 2.1 on Approach at the Northern Trust.
Scott has a long track record of playing his best golf on classic long courses (Riviera, Firestone, Muirfield Village, Augusta National) and Olympia Fields should be an excellent choice.
Having won a major championship (2013 Masters), Players Championship (2004) and a TOUR Championship (2006), Scott is no stranger to the big stage. Last year he also achieved excellent results in the FedEx Cup playoffs, finishing 5th, 9th and 6th in the three events.
The 11th player in the world has a lot of wins (14 PGA Tour wins) and it’s too long of a price this week. When Scott is at the top of his game, he can compete with elite players on tour.
[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Longshots
Jason Sobel
Adam Long +15000 ($ 10 bet wins $ 1,500)
Joining BMW is a big plus for the 70 players who have done well enough over the course of the season to advance this far.
Entering the TOUR Championship, however, can change the lives of some players who will qualify for each of next year’s four majors, the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and will be able to set their schedule however they like. Every year there are some surprises on the pitch at East Lake and this year will be no different.
In ranking twenty-seventh entering this week, Long has an inside track on how to make it happen – and potentially he couldn’t come in a better place for a guy who grew up in the Midwest and should have had this circle on his calendar for a while.
No, I wouldn’t bet the house on him outright this week, but he could be a worthwhile play in the top-10/20 props and for DFS lineups.
[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Josh Perry
Russell Henley (+8000)
Henley has consistently been gaining hits with his approach over the past few weeks and is starting to struggle a bit now that his put has arrived.
I don’t know if he will be able to win outright in such a deep field, but another top 10 spot could definitely be at stake.
[Bet now at bet365. NJ only.]
Collin Wilson
Jason Kokrak (+10000)
After a bad period of missed cuts and a retirement at The Memorial, Kokrak is back in shape with a couple of top 15 finishes in his last two starts. Xavier University alumni earned 7.8 Tee to Green hits at the Northern Trust, so I’m buying her revival.
Kokrak has long been off the tee and finished second in Greens in Regulation (GIR) by over 200 yards in 2018 and 2019, so he has the tools to play well on a long course like Olympia Fields.
Kokrak is also on the outside looking for a place in the TOUR championship, so I expect him to be motivated this week.
[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Matteo Vincenzi
Cameron Smith (+11000)
At the Northern Trust, Cameron Smith had his best week of ball shots since the 2017 Wyndham Championship.
The Australian earned 7.4 tee shots on the green and 6.5 shots approaching. Finishing # 26 on the FedEx Cup rankings, Cam will be motivated to have a good finish this week to cash in on his ticket to East Lake.
Smith has had some good places on difficult golf courses in the past: in 2020 he won the Sony Open in Hawaii with a final score of -11, and finished 4th at the 2015 US Open. He also had a recent success in the playoffs of the FedEx Cup while arriving in East Lake in 2018.
Winning the BMW championship would be a tall order but I expect the 52nd player in the world to have a good performance at Olympia Fields.
[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Betting on items
Jason Sobel
Final in the top 20 by Alex Noren (+175)
Going into a week where the course is largely a big unknown for most contestants and all elite-level guys on the field can win, the top 20 props on those listed below could be the best way to go.
With only 70 players on the pitch, these plays will only have to beat around 72% of the pitch, which doesn’t ask too much. I like Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Jason Kokrak and Cameron Smith here, but my favorite of the bunch is Noren.
One of the biggest promoters on the FedEx Cup points list last week, Noren climbed from 78th to 47th and now has the Tour Championship on hand after what has been a mediocre year for a player of his caliber up to recently.
In fact, in his first 10 starts – all in PGA TOUR-sanctioned events – the former top-10 scored zero in the top 10, but collected three in his last four, with plenty to play for this week.
[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Josh Perry
Tony Finau Top-20 Finish (+140)
This is my favorite game when I expect tough conditions because we know that Finau’s ball shot will usually be positioned close to the front of the court every week.
Finau missed the cut at TPC Boston, but that was largely due to his short game. On a smaller field, I like to make more money for a player who constantly finds his way into contention.
[Bet this prop at BetMGM and get an INSTANT $500 deposit match.]
Collin Wilson
Byeong-Hun An (+335) is the best Asian
This item is a 3-ball long tournament between An, Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama. Im and Matsuyama are almost guaranteed to enter the TOUR championship, but it’s a different story for An, who is in 35th place and needs a good performance to get into the top-30.
He missed the cut at TPC Boston but finished 12th and 22nd at the St. Jude and PGA Championship, so even though he was inconsistent, these odds are worth playing with.
I lost -3.4 shots from Tee to Green at TPC Boston and Matsuyama’s performance was backed up by an unsustainable put.
There is a lot of variance between these three, so I’ll try with Benny An.
[Bet this prop at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Matteo Vincenzi
Jason Day Top-10 Finish (+275)
There is no denying that Day was awful last week after being a popular choice to win. The damage was done during his approaches (-6.5 SG: APP) as he really struggled with his iron strikes.
In the last four Day tournaments prior to the Northern Trust, he was spotless Tee against Green (+ 9.6, + 7.0, + 6.2, + 6.2 SG: T2G) and also earned over Approach in each of those tournaments.
Golfers have wrong turns and last week may have just been an anomaly for J-Day. With a strong champion size from strong recent form, Day is a good bet to bounce back this week and get into conflict.
[Bet this prop at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Match bets
Jason Sobel
Adam Scott (-110) on Paul Casey
As we all know (or should know), betting is often as much about figuring out who you don’t like as who you like. When I started looking at the board this week, I couldn’t find a fade near the top; almost all 50/1 or more are riding a stove or their price has risen to such an extent that they are a more attractive game.
I don’t hate Casey this week, but he’s the closest thing I’ve found to a fade, with that PGA runner-up being his only top-30 result since the reboot.
I see Casey, in 64th on the points list, playing the string, while Scott should still be refreshed and recharged with just two starts this summer.
[Bet this matchup at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Josh Perry
Tyrrell Hatton (-125) on Gary Woodland
This is pretty straightforward.
Hatton is some scroll ahead of Woodland in the markets outright this week and with good reason. The Englishman is playing better golf right now.
Hatton’s hit of the ball was solid out of an event. The same cannot be said for Woodland, which has been all over the map.
[Bet this matchup at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Collin Wilson
Billy Horschel (-110) on Matt Kuchar
After a heartbreaking second place finish at the Wyndham Championship, Horschel stumbled out of the gates at TPC Boston, posting three double bogeys and missing the cut.
I still like that Horschel has a good result this week as he is currently in 30th place in the FedEx Cup rankings. That may be motivation enough to play better than Kuchar, who is 55th in the rankings.
This is a very bad course suitable for Kuchar with long par 3 and par 4 which does not suit his game.
[Bet this matchup at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Matteo Vincenzi
Tony Finau (-106) on Viktor Hovland
I expect Tony Finau to recover from a disappointing missed cut at The Northern Trust. He actually gained 1.7 shots off the tee last week and 1.3 on approach, so I have no doubts about his current form.
His previous BMW Championship finishes have been excellent, having finished 4th in 2019, 8th in 2018, 7th in 2017. Alternatively, Viktor Hovland scored 5.2 hits by finishing last week at The Northern Trust, which is was the best SG: Putting performance of his career.
At this point, Hovland was a well below average putter, so I don’t think his recent performance on the greens is sustainable.
His performance from tee to green was not particularly impressive last week (+0.3 SG: T2G), so I will take Finau’s track record and consistency in this match.
[Bet this matchup at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
