ECR stands for “Expert Consensus Ranking,” which stands for the average ranking of many members of the fantasy football industry and is generally similar to ADP (which differs from site to site). This will be an ongoing series highlighting big differences between ECR and my own ranks. In general, it’s usually better to regress in the market, and knowing your league’s ADP is still just as important when writing, but I rank the following players much lower than the fantasy community in general.
Players who should go higher: QBs | RB | WRs | YOU
Players leave too early: QBs | RB | WRs | YOU
Chris Godwin is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL right now, but his 2020 ADP is too high after not even making the top 30 in the WOPR last season (“Weighted Opportunity Rating” has a year-to-year stability of 0.61, which is about as strong than for the projection of wide receivers). He will now share goals with Rob Gronkowski to accompany Mike Evans in a squad with a much improved defense which is increase their basic offense to 12 people.
Additionally, Jameis Winston has just produced ideally fantastic conditions with the NFL‘s first 30/30 season, but Godwin will now catch the assists of a 43-year-old quarterback who has shown serious signs of decline over the course of the second half of last season and now switching systems during a truncated offseason. There might not be a lot of great receivers in better football than Godwin right now, but there are a lot who are in better fantasy situations, as it’s much more reasonable to expect a production. of WR2 than that of the first five, as its ADP suggests. I’m also on Evans and would much prefer the Seahawks WR duo instead.
Hopkins had a pretty big drop in performance last season (58th in yards per target) and is expected to experience a drop in production in his first year after switching teams. He recently missed practice time due to a hamstring injury, is moving away from his prime and while Kyler Murray undoubtedly has a bright future, Hopkins will almost certainly see a drop in his game. usual for QB in 2020. DHop is an elite catcher that I’m still ranked with WR1, but I write Allen Robinson, AJ Brown, DJ Moore, Kenny Golladay and Terry McLaurin before him.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (ECR = WR15 vs. DDD = WR27)
He might have been a bit unlucky with touchdowns last season, but Woods placed 9th for targets and 75th for red zone targets (Alex Erickson and Zach Pascal saw more), so his two low scores were certainly no accident. While I’m actually on top of the Rams’ passing offense this season, Woods has average speed and isn’t targeted downstream (91st average depth of target) or in the red zone. I just can’t see the ranking of “Bobby Trees” in the top 15 when there are so many other intriguing options. And that’s before we even get to the concerns of Van Jefferson’s emergence this summer. I don’t have Woods in the top 25 WR on my board.
He has never played 16 games in any season in his career and will also have the challenge of switching teams, as Diggs moves up from the inside and one of the league’s most accurate quarterbacks to the outdoors / bad weather and one of the less accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. John Brown placed 7th in the WOPR last season, so it’s not like Diggs suddenly doesn’t have a teammate in command of a bunch of targets. Bills also have one of the the most difficult projected fantastic schedules for wide receivers and will likely remain a severe offense. Diggs could be top road racer in the NFL, but given her situation, I’d rather have Marquise Brown, Michael Gallup and even CeeDee Lamb on my fantastic squad.
Henry Ruggs, Las Vegas Raiders (ECR = WR53 vs. DDD = WR70)
The Raiders made a mistake drafting Ruggs in front of CeeDee Lamb, and the landing spot wasn’t great for the rookie. The Raiders are now playing inside and have a solid offensive line (and can throw a lot of play from behind), but otherwise the team has a lot of mouths to feed (although Tyrell Williams’ injury opens up goals) a quarterback who had the second lowest expected airline average and aggressive% last season. The scenario is far from ideal for the lean beginner burner (Hunter Renfrow ranked 11th in yards per run last year and should be locked in the slot). While I appreciate that the Raiders keep in mind Al Davis’ tradition of valuing speed above all else, Ruggs is overrated in fantasy leagues. Bryan Edwards will be Las Vegas’ top receiver in 2020 and throughout their career.